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Machado Trade Expectations

Machado Trade Expectations  

287 members have voted

  1. 1. Regarding the return we receive, what are your expectations of whatever Machado trade takes place?

    • The return will be outstanding.
    • The return will be solid.
    • The return will be merely decent.
    • The return will be poor.
    • The return will be just terrible.
    • I expect we will not trade him at all, getting only a compensation pick in next year's draft.


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13 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

    

Here's the actual report. I like a lot of guys on that list...

AM scares me more than anyone.  Has AM ever lost a major deal?  He fleeced the Mariners   He stole Hardy.  Made a great deal to get Davis.  

He doesn’t just win deals, he fleeces teams.   

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I love Hiura ....but you can't walk away from a rebuild with he player for Machado, Machado and Brittion or Machado and send something back

IMO Hiura has to be included if the Dodgers offer Verdugo.

 

its Hiura, Dubon, Mederios, C Rod, and Z Brown

I suspect the talk of a bidding war is being overstated a bit. I really don't think anyone goes past B level prospects for a rental. MM loses value every single day he suits up in an Orioles uniform. It's certainly possible that overall packages increase, but I think you will be very disappointed if you are expecting Hiura/Verdugo/Ruiz/Sheffield/Andujar/etc in a deal for MM. There are other options, albeit none as good as MM. The runner up for MM can target Eduardo Escobar or Moustakas or Cabrera even Donaldson hoping for some recovery. Only the Brewers need specifically a SS, the Dodgers could make due with 2b and the Yankees are looking at 3b. 

Regarding the Brewers prospects you listed, Dubon tore his ACL a few months back...which will likely complicate any trade for him. Plus hitter with plus speed but minimal power. Lack of power might force him from SS to a super utility role. C Rod has excellent raw stuff and projection but he doesn't have much of an idea where it's going right now. He'll be a project if acquired. Medeiros and Brown are both having breakout campaigns with a ton of helium. Their true ranking is probably inside the Brewers top 10 and climbing, with Medeiros ahead of Brown. Medeiros was a 12th overall pick and a project at the time. Controlling his raw stuff was his biggest challenge but he's getting there. I personally am anticipating him to be a Josh Hader type weapon out of the bullpen with the low arm slot, but for now he's a SP. Slider is a double plus pitch. Zack Brown has had good stuff since college but for whatever reason underachieved from a results standpoint. Plus curve, mid 90s and a solid change.

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I suspect your best chance at a B+ or better prospect is packaging MM and ZB. Would you take Verdugo, May, and not much else for those 2, while eating a majority of their salaries? The Dodgers may still not do that, but their payroll situation with the luxury tax...you could act as a 1 stop shop for them.

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22 minutes ago, keithstone said:

I suspect the talk of a bidding war is being overstated a bit. I really don't think anyone goes past B level prospects for a rental. MM loses value every single day he suits up in an Orioles uniform. It's certainly possible that overall packages increase, but I think you will be very disappointed if you are expecting Hiura/Verdugo/Ruiz/Sheffield/Andujar/etc in a deal for MM. There are other options, albeit none as good as MM. The runner up for MM can target Eduardo Escobar or Moustakas or Cabrera even Donaldson hoping for some recovery. Only the Brewers need specifically a SS, the Dodgers could make due with 2b and the Yankees are looking at 3b. 

Regarding the Brewers prospects you listed, Dubon tore his ACL a few months back...which will likely complicate any trade for him. Plus hitter with plus speed but minimal power. Lack of power might force him from SS to a super utility role. C Rod has excellent raw stuff and projection but he doesn't have much of an idea where it's going right now. He'll be a project if acquired. Medeiros and Brown are both having breakout campaigns with a ton of helium. Their true ranking is probably inside the Brewers top 10 and climbing, with Medeiros ahead of Brown. Medeiros was a 12th overall pick and a project at the time. Controlling his raw stuff was his biggest challenge but he's getting there. I personally am anticipating him to be a Josh Hader type weapon out of the bullpen with the low arm slot, but for now he's a SP. Slider is a double plus pitch. Zack Brown has had good stuff since college but for whatever reason underachieved from a results standpoint. Plus curve, mid 90s and a solid change.

So you must be the visitor from another team. Which one? 

At least three teams are interested in Machado and Britton.

Weve read in the media that the price for Manny is 2 main pieces and 2 “A ball types” 

Callis said Britton would return 1 very good prospect and 1 secondary guy.

We will see what the return is but if the Phillies have Medina and Brewers Burnes that is basically each teams #2. I think Verdugo is already on the table. Just my opinion.

Teams back away and then jump back in with a higher offer. Eight teams are involved and only the Cubs have really walked away.

The price is definitely high and teams are not backing away

Someone will blink and I’m pulling for the Dodgers although the Phillies have enough to make it exciting.

we will see!

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27 minutes ago, keithstone said:

I suspect your best chance at a B+ or better prospect is packaging MM and ZB. Would you take Verdugo, May, and not much else for those 2, while eating a majority of their salaries? The Dodgers may still not do that, but their payroll situation with the luxury tax...you could act as a 1 stop shop for them.

No ... and the Orioles won’t need to.

Verdugo and May would be your main parts.

add Ferguson Gonsolin and Bannon is probably fair. But I’d want to swop out someone for May as we need a SS that our system doesn’t have.

 

 

Eat the payroll to keep LA away from the Luxury tax.

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

So you must be the visitor from another team. Which one? 

At least three teams are interested in Machado and Britton.

Weve read in the media that the price for Manny is 2 main pieces and 2 “A ball types” 

Callis said Britton would return 1 very good prospect and 1 secondary guy.

We will see what the return is but if the Phillies have Medina and Brewers Burnes that is basically each teams #2. I think Verdugo is already on the table. Just my opinion.

Teams back away and then jump back in with a higher offer. Eight teams are involved and only the Cubs have really walked away.

The price is definitely high and teams are not backing away

Someone will blink and I’m pulling for the Dodgers although the Phillies have enough to make it exciting.

we will see!

I am, hence my comments on Brewers prospects. Burnes is probably the Brewers number 3 prospect in reality at this point, behind Peralta...fyi.

I've read quite a bit from this forum and reports. The national guys specifically have been shooting down any notion of those top prospects being included. Maybe someone does blink, but at I doubt it unless MM is packaged with someone else.

Regarding Callis comments on ZB, I suspect a very good prospect and secondary guy would mean a B level prospect and an low minors upside guy. From the Brewers, I suspect something like Phillips and C Rod...maybe Ortiz and C Rod but I doubt it.

All that said, I don't think the Brewers get him. I never thought we would, but got a bit excited by the rumors. Other teams have certain obstacles to acquiring MM. Payroll for Dodgers, Angelos hatred for Yankees. I think the most likely outcome is the Dodgers or Phillies, and if it's the Dodgers it probably includes a reliever.

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4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No ... and the Orioles won’t need to.

Verdugo and May would be your main parts.

add Ferguson Gonsolin and Bannon is probably fair. But I’d want to swop out someone for May as we need a SS that our system doesn’t have.

 

 

Eat the payroll to keep LA away from the Luxury tax.

That's fair, but keep in mind all these teams know the O's have to trade these guys or lose them for a comp pick. They don't really have any leverage other than to play other teams against each other...and other teams know that. And with each passing day, these guys value is decreasing. Waiting until the deadline reduces the amount of games they get from each guy by 10-15%.

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2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Man there are some people who are going to be disappointed with the actual return.  Not getting a teams top prospect doesn't necessarily make whatever trade they make a failure.  But based on some recent comments I feel a lot of people will see it that way.

I think more likely the Orioles get a great return.   And posters like will be disappointed that you were wrong and not caring that we got a great deal.  There is only one superstar available and a bunch of trams that want to win the World Series.   Supply and demand baby. 

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1 minute ago, keithstone said:

That's fair, but keep in mind all these teams know the O's have to trade these guys or lose them for a comp pick. They don't really have any leverage other than to play other teams against each other...and other teams know that. And with each passing day, these guys value is decreasing. Waiting until the deadline reduces the amount of games they get from each guy by 10-15%.

Wrong.   The teams want to get Manny.  There are bunch competing.   Your logic is flawed.  It's like saying in the off-season Manny won't get a big contract because teams know if he doesn't sign with an MLB team his only option is Japan.  

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Just now, TheOtherRipken said:

Not sure when every started switching to “he wont be traded.” He most certainly will. 

Because random reporters are acting like the Orioles are being the "same old Orioles" by not accepting an offer in the first week of negotiating and over 2 weeks before the deadline.

I really don't get it. They are so deep into negotations over 2 weeks before the deadline. Sounds like packages are being discussed and Manny+Britton deals are being talked about between the teams. Sure as heck sounds to me like it's just a matter of time.

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1 minute ago, keithstone said:

That's fair, but keep in mind all these teams know the O's have to trade these guys or lose them for a comp pick. They don't really have any leverage other than to play other teams against each other...and other teams know that. And with each passing day, these guys value is decreasing. Waiting until the deadline reduces the amount of games they get from each guy by 10-15%.

They aren't trading to get Manny for the regular season, they are trying to win the World Series. The closer they get to the playoffs, the more valuable Manny gets to them, not less. They are starting to talk about guys that weren't on the table 3-4 months ago.

Why settle on a package of B prospects when there are four or more competitive offers out there? Wait it out and see if you guys offer Kiura or the Phils offer Sixto. If Kiura is off the table, why should we go with your package of B guys over the Phils or Dodgers package of B guys?

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1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

Houston took on all but $10M of the $56M left on his deal.  A team unloading that much salary wasn't going to bring back the best of the best.
Back to ManNY, as I said before, the Dodgers are going to want salary relief in a trade, and what's left on ManNY's contract is much, much less.  Think the Angelos family will trade him AND pay a chunk of his salary?

Manny is only owed 7 million.   If the Dodgers couldn't afford it why are they making bids? I don't see the need for salary relief.  It's not like we are trying to unload Trumbo. 

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Just now, Black Bat said:

I guess you might not be aware of a bidding war.  If you think all these teams are clamoring over a top all-star offering peanuts, go ahead and believe this.  I think it's an unfounded belief but we'll know soon enough.  

It's less than half of a season of an all-star though. Would you want to trade 6-7 cost controlled years of an all-star or a #2 starting pitcher for 70 games of a star SS for a playoff run? There are other options, none as good as MM but there are other solid contributors available.

Again, just my opinion from the other side. It's absolutely possible a team gets desperate, kinda like the Cubs in their drastic overpay for Chapman a couple years back. And there really isn't a precedent on return for a superstar SS/3B like Machado on a rental since rentals stopped getting comp picks.

This is also why I think someone else gets MM besides my brewers. The Dodgers or Yankees can more easily trade prospects capital and go buy a star in FA, the Brewers can't do that. We need our prospects to get to the MLB roster and contribute.

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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

They aren't trading to get Manny for the regular season, they are trying to win the World Series. The closer they get to the playoffs, the more valuable Manny gets to them, not less. They are starting to talk about guys that weren't on the table 3-4 months ago.

Why settle on a package of B prospects when there are four or more competitive offers out there? Wait it out and see if you guys offer Kiura or the Phils offer Sixto. If Kiura is off the table, why should we go with your package of B guys over the Phils or Dodgers package of B guys?

Also the

 

1 minute ago, keithstone said:

It's less than half of a season of an all-star though. Would you want to trade 6-7 cost controlled years of an all-star or a #2 starting pitcher for 70 games of a star SS for a playoff run? There are other options, none as good as MM but there are other solid contributors available.

Again, just my opinion from the other side. It's absolutely possible a team gets desperate, kinda like the Cubs in their drastic overpay for Chapman a couple years back. And there really isn't a precedent on return for a superstar SS/3B like Machado on a rental since rentals stopped getting comp picks.

This is also why I think someone else gets MM besides my brewers. The Dodgers or Yankees can more easily trade prospects capital and go buy a star in FA, the Brewers can't do that. We need our prospects to get to the MLB roster and contribute.

Manny is a lot more valuable than he was before the season.  First he would have cost you 15 million in salary and second the trams bidding know if they have a shot at the post season.. 

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