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Machado Trade Expectations

Machado Trade Expectations  

287 members have voted

  1. 1. Regarding the return we receive, what are your expectations of whatever Machado trade takes place?

    • The return will be outstanding.
    • The return will be solid.
    • The return will be merely decent.
    • The return will be poor.
    • The return will be just terrible.
    • I expect we will not trade him at all, getting only a compensation pick in next year's draft.


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18 minutes ago, keithstone said:

I am, hence my comments on Brewers prospects. Burnes is probably the Brewers number 3 prospect in reality at this point, behind Peralta...fyi.

I've read quite a bit from this forum and reports. The national guys specifically have been shooting down any notion of those top prospects being included. Maybe someone does blink, but at I doubt it unless MM is packaged with someone else.

Regarding Callis comments on ZB, I suspect a very good prospect and secondary guy would mean a B level prospect and an low minors upside guy. From the Brewers, I suspect something like Phillips and C Rod...maybe Ortiz and C Rod but I doubt it.

All that said, I don't think the Brewers get him. I never thought we would, but got a bit excited by the rumors. Other teams have certain obstacles to acquiring MM. Payroll for Dodgers, Angelos hatred for Yankees. I think the most likely outcome is the Dodgers or Phillies, and if it's the Dodgers it probably includes a reliever.

The National guys reports are club posturing through the media... again someone is going to blink, probably not the Brewers but wait and see.

ive started long before your visit that I’d tell the Brewers that Hiura is the main piece or don’t bother. 

The Orioles have enough interest to be demanding.

 

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3 minutes ago, Black Bat said:

Totally flawed.  Illogical, in fact.  

It's the most basic of economics - more competition for a desired commodity raises the value.  Where'd he learn this from.  Pretty funny, actually.  He's gotta be a GM.

If the price on MM gets too high, what's to stop the Yankees from targeting Moustakas instead? Or the Dodgers from getting Dozier and keeping Taylor at SS? Or the Brewers from targeting Escobar? I get that MM is the best player available, but at some point you are getting better value by getting a lower cost target for your position of need and targeting other upgrades. 

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2 minutes ago, keithstone said:

It's less than half of a season of an all-star though. Would you want to trade 6-7 cost controlled years of an all-star or a #2 starting pitcher for 70 games of a star SS for a playoff run? There are other options, none as good as MM but there are other solid contributors available.

Again, just my opinion from the other side. It's absolutely possible a team gets desperate, kinda like the Cubs in their drastic overpay for Chapman a couple years back. And there really isn't a precedent on return for a superstar SS/3B like Machado on a rental since rentals stopped getting comp picks.

This is also why I think someone else gets MM besides my brewers. The Dodgers or Yankees can more easily trade prospects capital and go buy a star in FA, the Brewers can't do that. We need our prospects to get to the MLB roster and contribute.

I think you're underrating what a guy like Manny or Zach do for a playoff run. One is far and away the best bat on the market and one is one of the best if not the best realistic reliever on the market (I don't see a guy like Hand getting moved). 

You are also assuming a top prospect lives up to his upside. We see how Arcia who was a top 5 prospect in baseball is doing right now. We see JP Crawford who was a top 3 prospect in PHI and what he is doing. These guys aren't locks. Trading one of them along with a piece or two for an increase chance at a WS isn't as crazy as you think.

I don't think we get Hiura or Sixto to be fair, but I do think we should get two impact prospects, maybe 3 along with a 2-3 young upside pieces OR high floor arms ala Swanson from NYY like reported in the deal if both are included.

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1 minute ago, keithstone said:

If the price on MM gets too high, what's to stop the Yankees from targeting Moustakas instead? Or the Dodgers from getting Dozier and keeping Taylor at SS? Or the Brewers from targeting Escobar? I get that MM is the best player available, but at some point you are getting better value by getting a lower cost target for your position of need and targeting other upgrades. 

Moustakas is an awful defender and isn't nearly as good of a bat as Manny. He has a lower everything offensively and is likely relegated to 1B in NYY. Manny provides either elite 3B play or moves in at SS which is a much more valuable position.

Moustakas got signed for peanuts after a 40 HR season last year for a reason. His numbers to us/fantasy numbers may be nice to look at, but he isn't providing near the help that Manny does for NYY in a serious pennant race with Boston.

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6 minutes ago, keithstone said:

It's less than half of a season of an all-star though. Would you want to trade 6-7 cost controlled years of an all-star or a #2 starting pitcher for 70 games of a star SS for a playoff run? There are other options, none as good as MM but there are other solid contributors available.

Again, just my opinion from the other side. It's absolutely possible a team gets desperate, kinda like the Cubs in their drastic overpay for Chapman a couple years back. And there really isn't a precedent on return for a superstar SS/3B like Machado on a rental since rentals stopped getting comp picks.

This is also why I think someone else gets MM besides my brewers. The Dodgers or Yankees can more easily trade prospects capital and go buy a star in FA, the Brewers can't do that. We need our prospects to get to the MLB roster and contribute.

Prospects are prospects... until they produce at the majors they aren’t worth jack. Arcia and Crawford come to mind. If the Orioles get 2-3 big pieces and 2 lesser you can almost bet 3 of the 5 will bust or underperform.

so none of that matters ... the NL team that gets him and has a huge advantage and he will likely give them 3-4 WAR.

And the benefits extends beyond his production. The other team is not getting it

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9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The National guys reports are club posturing through the media... again someone is going to blink, probably not the Brewers but wait and see.

ive started long before your visit that I’d tell the Brewers that Hiura is the main piece or don’t bother. 

The Orioles have enough interest to be demanding.

 

The Brewers should be the ones going hardest for Manny.   They don't have any production from Shortstop.  They need to up their offer if they want to go far. If if I were their GM I would make the move.   Yankees I am not sure they win the division even with Manny.   Probably wouldn't go all in if I were the Yankees. 

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3 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

Moustakas is an awful defender and isn't nearly as good of a bat as Manny. He has a lower everything offensively and is likely relegated to 1B in NYY. Manny provides either elite 3B play or moves in at SS which is a much more valuable position.

Moustakas got signed for peanuts after a 40 HR season last year for a reason. His numbers to us/fantasy numbers may be nice to look at, but he isn't providing near the help that Manny does for NYY in a serious pennant race with Boston.

You may want to double check those defensive numbers on Moustakas, he's actually a pretty good defender. Also I'm not trying to argue that any of those options is better or equal to MM, but could you be getting 80-90% of MM's production from Moustakas at a fraction of the cost? Probably. Could you get Moustakas and someone like Rodney or Happ for the same price as some of your asking prices for MM...depending on your needs? I think probably yes. Making the big splash doesn't guarantee you anything, just ask Price and the Blue Jays.

Every team involved has other needs besides MM. The Yankees need SP help, and maybe 1b help. The Dodgers need both SP and RP help. The Phillies, you'd have an easier time naming the positions they don't need help. All these teams need to balance their bids for MM with their other needs, all while considering those lesser options.

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3 minutes ago, keithstone said:

You may want to double check those defensive numbers on Moustakas, he's actually a pretty good defender. Also I'm not trying to argue that any of those options is better or equal to MM, but could you be getting 80-90% of MM's production from Moustakas at a fraction of the cost? Probably. Could you get Moustakas and someone like Rodney or Happ for the same price as some of your asking prices for MM...depending on your needs? I think probably yes. Making the big splash doesn't guarantee you anything, just ask Price and the Blue Jays.

Every team involved has other needs besides MM. The Yankees need SP help, and maybe 1b help. The Dodgers need both SP and RP help. The Phillies, you'd have an easier time naming the positions they don't need help. All these teams need to balance their bids for MM with their other needs, all while considering those lesser options.

You go ahead and believe all this. There is no other superstar on the market besides Manny Machado. If you think JA Happ and Moose do more for you at the same price than I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

There's a reason why every reporter is saying the market is pretty much waiting for a Machado deal to happen. He is the prize and he is everyone's focus right now. There's a reason. If teams were looking at alternative options diligently we wouldn't be seeing things like "Phillies up offer, still behind NYY and LAD though" every other day.

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11 minutes ago, Black Bat said:

I see your perspective as you're basing his value from a comparative base-model standpoint.  Except Manny is no base-model, he's a luxury model that all the teams want badly.  You don't find sluggers at the SS position and he's a key cog to a championship for these contenders.  Do you realize the revenue gained from a world series championship?  And every one of those GM's all with big ego's would differ from you - they are certain they can extend him once he's in their clubhouse.  Moreover, the value added is keeping him from your competitors.  his value is not simply a "rental" value for a base-model Ford Fiesta.  This is a Ferrari.

You make a good point and I get it. I believe I've noted that there is no precedent for a position player of MM's caliber getting traded at the deadline without a comp pick. We've seen teams pay premiums for elite talents, and all it takes is one GM to go over the top with an offer for you all to get the return you hope for. If that does happen, I don't see it being the Brewers. 

Regarding other options, just because they aren't being talked about in the media doesn't mean discussions aren't happening behind the scenes. The Brewers are generally a tight lipped organization, often you don't hear anything until the trade is announced.

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2 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

You go ahead and believe all this. There is no other superstar on the market besides Manny Machado. If you think JA Happ and Moose do more for you at the same price than I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

There's a reason why every reporter is saying the market is pretty much waiting for a Machado deal to happen. He is the prize and he is everyone's focus right now. There's a reason. If teams were looking at alternative options diligently we wouldn't be seeing things like "Phillies up offer, still behind NYY and LAD though" every other day.

Hey man it's a forum. We aren't going to have the same opinion. One of us will be right, or neither of us. Time will tell. I have nothing against the Orioles. In fact, I kinda hope you fleece the Yankees or Dodgers in a trade. That either helps the Brewers by weakening the NL or helps weaken the Yankees...which makes 90+% of the baseball world happy because nobody likes the Yankees.

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26 minutes ago, MrOrange82 said:

Isn't Sixto dealing with elbow inflammation, anyway?

Don't think he's going to be part of the package. It will most likely start with Adonis Medina.

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7 minutes ago, keithstone said:

Hey man it's a forum. We aren't going to have the same opinion. One of us will be right, or neither of us. Time will tell. I have nothing against the Orioles. In fact, I kinda hope you fleece the Yankees or Dodgers in a trade. That either helps the Brewers by weakening the NL or helps weaken the Yankees...which makes 90+% of the baseball world happy because nobody likes the Yankees.

 

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36 minutes ago, keithstone said:

If the price on MM gets too high, what's to stop the Yankees from targeting Moustakas instead? Or the Dodgers from getting Dozier and keeping Taylor at SS? Or the Brewers from targeting Escobar? I get that MM is the best player available, but at some point you are getting better value by getting a lower cost target for your position of need and targeting other upgrades. 

Meh, you’re not going to convince the natives differently so there’s no point in arguing. I’m a Dodger fan but have been a lurker since the day the Bedard deal broke and somebody here had a good scoop.

 

The locals get really dug in. Last year it was “Chapman++” literally hundreds of times for Britton. We know how well that went. Now they hang onto every shred of a positive word from Callie. Fans on this site want other teams to bail the team out from a miserable front office. Educated FO’s won’t do that. But the more you push the more dug in they get. So I just try to pepper them with humor once in a while. They are Oriole fans. There’s not much to look forward to until the Angelos family sells. 

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2 minutes ago, Hotdiggity said:

Meh, you’re not going to convince the natives differently so there’s no point in arguing. I’m a Dodger fan but have been a lurker since the day the Bedard deal broke and somebody here had a good scoop.

 

The locals get really dug in. Last year it was “Chapman++” literally hundreds of times for Britton. We know how well that went. Now they hang onto every shred of a positive word from Callie. Fans on this site want other teams to bail the team out from a miserable front office. Educated FO’s won’t do that. But the more you push the more dug in they get. So I just try to pepper them with humor once in a while. They are Oriole fans. There’s not much to look forward to until the Angelos family sells. 

I am not sure what the point of opposing fans coming on here trying to convince us to take a bad deal.   We don't make the decisions.  The front office is going to take what they think is the best deal. 

In the end your team probably won't make the playoffs so it is wise for them to hold on to their prospects.   

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