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Machado Trade Expectations

Machado Trade Expectations  

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  1. 1. Regarding the return we receive, what are your expectations of whatever Machado trade takes place?

    • The return will be outstanding.
    • The return will be solid.
    • The return will be merely decent.
    • The return will be poor.
    • The return will be just terrible.
    • I expect we will not trade him at all, getting only a compensation pick in next year's draft.


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18 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Just seems like a silly an arbitrary distinction to me.   Obviously Chapman would be upgrade for a ton of teams in their bullpen.   That doesn't mean it's feasible or a good idea for Team X to trade for him.............etc.

The question should be about WAR added to the team I suppose........and I have to think the WAR added by Machado should be significant in a lot of cases.   Yea the longer we wait in 2018 the more that number goes down............but you only need one desperate team 'on the cusp' to jump in.

I already agreed that Manny is the more valuable player.

But it isn't that simple. 

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Desperation gets GMs fired faster than anything else in baseball.

Analytics are in now in baseball, and that leaves emotions out of the picture in making decisions in the front office.  Just take a look at what's happening in free agency to give you an idea of what MLB front offices are thinking.

The Orioles need to learn to rely on analytics on their decision making, just like the rest of baseball.  Signing players on the tail end of their careers, while trading away young pitching prospects, has really hurt this organization badly long-term.

Every day Machado spends on the Orioles roster lowers his value to an acquiring team.  He should have been traded in the off-season. The rational decision would have been to take the best of the several offers when he could have brought the acquiring team a compensatory draft pick.  However the Orioles made the silly decision to try to go all-in when they had no real chance of competing.

The Orioles are the epitome right now of how not to run a major league organization.  And Oroles fans are going to pay the the price for it for the next several years.

You have to really wonder what attendance at Camden Yards will be like after this season.  Maybe the kids can sit anywhere they want for free next year.

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4 minutes ago, nadecir said:

Desperation gets GMs fired faster than anything else in baseball.

Analytics are in now in baseball, and that leaves emotions out of the picture in making decisions in the front office.  Just take a look at what's happening in free agency to give you an idea of what MLB front offices are thinking.

The Orioles need to learn to rely on analytics on their decision making, just like the rest of baseball.  Signing players on the tail end of their careers, while trading away young pitching prospects, has really hurt this organization badly long-term.

Every day Machado spends on the Orioles roster lowers his value to an acquiring team.  He should have been traded in the off-season. The rational decision would have been to take the best of the several offers when he could have brought the acquiring team a compensatory draft pick.  However the Orioles made the silly decision to try to go all-in when they had no real chance of competing.

The Orioles are the epitome right now of how not to run a major league organization.  And Oroles fans are going to pay the the price for it for the next several years.

You have to really wonder what attendance at Camden Yards will be like after this season.  Maybe the kids can sit anywhere they want for free next year.

This sums it up perfectly.  We (Angelos) refuse to change with the game.  Always have refused.  So until the franchise is no longer in his stubborn hands, I'm not sure how much anything matters...

😞

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14 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Agreed.  I just don't see any scenario where that happens.  He's having an MVP season.  Even a half season of that is worth a couple top prospects to a contending team.  

It is dangerous to assume that just because Manny has hit very well for the first two months, he’ll continue to hit at that level all season.   For example, in 2016 Manny had a 1.003 OPS at the end of May, and ended the season at .876.    That’s one reason I’d be pretty aggressive shopping him in June.    

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20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is dangerous to assume that just because Manny has hit very well for the first two months, he’ll continue to hit at that level all season.   For example, in 2016 Manny had a 1.003 OPS at the end of May, and ended the season at .876.    That’s one reason I’d be pretty aggressive shopping him in June.    

Exactly. 

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He is but...

The Cubs were prepared to overpay given the unique situation they were in.  I don't think any team this year has the need to win that the Cubs had.

Every single team can use a Chapman so the pool of potential suitors is higher than it is for a position player.

I agree with the unique situation thought.  I do not with the second part.  The fact is almost every NL playoff contender could use Machado.

Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Dbacks, Brewers.

Whoever gets Machado fundamentally changes the outcome of that league.  Someone will pay.

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5 hours ago, nadecir said:

Desperation gets GMs fired faster than anything else in baseball.

Analytics are in now in baseball, and that leaves emotions out of the picture in making decisions in the front office.  Just take a look at what's happening in free agency to give you an idea of what MLB front offices are thinking.

The Orioles need to learn to rely on analytics on their decision making, just like the rest of baseball.  Signing players on the tail end of their careers, while trading away young pitching prospects, has really hurt this organization badly long-term.

Every day Machado spends on the Orioles roster lowers his value to an acquiring team.  He should have been traded in the off-season. The rational decision would have been to take the best of the several offers when he could have brought the acquiring team a compensatory draft pick.  However the Orioles made the silly decision to try to go all-in when they had no real chance of competing.

The Orioles are the epitome right now of how not to run a major league organization.  And Oroles fans are going to pay the the price for it for the next several years.

You have to really wonder what attendance at Camden Yards will be like after this season.  Maybe the kids can sit anywhere they want for free next year.

You are right of course.  But they thought, idiotically, that they would compete this year.  In fact, they probably have not even started fielding offers yet because they are still "deciding" whether they are in it for this year.  Manny should have been traded for the best offer over the winter.  He must be traded for the best offer, and in my opinion, the sooner the better.

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 Machado to the Phillies for shortstop prospect Arquimedes Gamboa and pitching prospects Enyel De Los Santos and Jose Taveras.

This is what Heyman is guessing. Anybody know anything about these guys?

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4 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

 Machado to the Phillies for shortstop prospect Arquimedes Gamboa and pitching prospects Enyel De Los Santos and Jose Taveras.

This is what Heyman is guessing. Anybody know anything about these guys?

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=461https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/9453/enyel-de-los-santos/https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/4098/jose-taveras/

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26 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

 Machado to the Phillies for shortstop prospect Arquimedes Gamboa and pitching prospects Enyel De Los Santos and Jose Taveras.

This is what Heyman is guessing. Anybody know anything about these guys?

It's their 5th and 11th best prospects. Gamboa is blocked by Crawford so he's probably expendable. Neither is a top 100 MLB prospect. 

 

5) Arquimedes Gamboa, SS, Grade B: Age 20, signed out of Venezuela in 2014, played most of ’17 at age 19; hit .261/.328/.378 with six homers, 33 walks, 52 strikeouts in 307 at-bats in Low-A, very credible for his age, finished hot hitting .340 in August/September; switch-hitter with some polish, gap power, reasonable strike zone judgment and 60-grade speed; arm and range should work at shortstop, cut error rate in half last year; on course for breakout season; ETA 2021.

 

11) Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B-: Age 22, from the Dominican Republic, traded from the San Diego Padres to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in December 2017; posted 3.78 ERA in Double-A with 138/48 K/BB, 131 hits; another hard-thrower with mid-90s fastball, throws strikes, curveball and change-up both have moments but often not in the same game; I think he’s a bit more likely to remain a starter than the similar (but taller) Franklyn Kilome but other observers like Kilome a little better; ETA 2020.

 

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's their 5th and 11th best prospects. Gamboa is blocked by Crawford so he's probably expendable. Neither is a top 100 MLB prospect. 

 

5) Arquimedes Gamboa, SS, Grade B: Age 20, signed out of Venezuela in 2014, played most of ’17 at age 19; hit .261/.328/.378 with six homers, 33 walks, 52 strikeouts in 307 at-bats in Low-A, very credible for his age, finished hot hitting .340 in August/September; switch-hitter with some polish, gap power, reasonable strike zone judgment and 60-grade speed; arm and range should work at shortstop, cut error rate in half last year; on course for breakout season; ETA 2021.

 

11) Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B-: Age 22, from the Dominican Republic, traded from the San Diego Padres to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in December 2017; posted 3.78 ERA in Double-A with 138/48 K/BB, 131 hits; another hard-thrower with mid-90s fastball, throws strikes, curveball and change-up both have moments but often not in the same game; I think he’s a bit more likely to remain a starter than the similar (but taller) Franklyn Kilome but other observers like Kilome a little better; ETA 2020.

 

Seems a bit underwhelming for Machado right? But I guess JD Martinez didn't fetch that much last season but he's a DH only kind of player. 

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I think he's traded. If the rumours are true that Angelos put the kibosh on a deal because Duquette got a lackluster offer...I'd imagine it was because Angelos thought this year the O's could still contend. However, they're not contending and there's really no reason to hold on to him...and Angelos does have a history of letting his GMs in a rebuilding year trade veteran/established pieces. But the question is whether Angelos trusts Duquette to make solid trades like he trusted MacPhail...who is still one of the best negotiators the O's have ever had. Especially compared to Duquette.

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1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

MacPhail...who is still one of the best negotiators the O's have ever had. Especially compared to Duquette.

He did not get Kershaw. 

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2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

I think he's traded. If the rumours are true that Angelos put the kibosh on a deal because Duquette got a lackluster offer...I'd imagine it was because Angelos thought this year the O's could still contend. However, they're not contending and there's really no reason to hold on to him...and Angelos does have a history of letting his GMs in a rebuilding year trade veteran/established pieces. But the question is whether Angelos trusts Duquette to make solid trades like he trusted MacPhail...who is still one of the best negotiators the O's have ever had. Especially compared to Duquette.

I don't agree.

I think Angelos has to win.  I don't think a fair deal works for him.

I think they got a fair deal for Britton last year.  Fair isn't good enough.

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