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David Hernandez: Snub me? I'll show you!

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SHENANIGANS!!!

Seriously?!?! I'm the Managing Editor here and I've been accused on several occassions of having a man-crush on the guy. Tony's did a full blown scouting report. I'd hardly say that he's under the radar. Not here, anyway.

Personally I thought he was being sarcastic haha.

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Calm down now, Scottie. ;)

I think he just means that we've been slow to pick up on him as a top-shelf talent. We've clung to Erbe through his struggles, treaded water with Spoone while injured, professed our man-crushes on Tillman and Arrieta, while D. Hernandez has really pitched well and - at least temporarily - been somewhat neglected.

Just look at where we ranked him prospect-wise going into this year.

That said, we've been on him all year.

I'm excited about his upside, too, of course.

I'm good, I'm good...thanks Jim! :D

I don't think we've been slow to pick up on him as much as David has rapidly demonstrated signs of top-prospect talent within the last 10-12 months.

Where we ranked him as a prospect before this season was pretty accurate at the time based on his success at Frederick and the progress he'd made up to that point, but our reluctance to rank him higher was justified.

The only negatives I see with him at this point is he still gets up in the zone a little too much and the walks, both fixable issues.

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If an O's starter goes down, would he be the next guy in line to replace him?

Last year, he showed potential - with the great SO numbers. This year, he's shown production - getting his ERA way down from 4.95 to 2.63, as opponents are hitting only .209 against him. Walks are a concern - but probably not a crippling concern. He might not be ready, but he might be the best option - based on performance.

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If an O's starter goes down, would he be the next guy in line to replace him?

He's not on the 40...It would probably depend on a number of things. They would probably clear room if it would be a month or two, but not a spot start. My 2 cents.

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I still think he'll be the next guy they call up if they need to fill a rotation spot. But the walks will hurt him up here. he has to get them under control.

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He's not on the 40...It would probably depend on a number of things. They would probably clear room if it would be a month or two, but not a spot start. My 2 cents.

Lets just say they do bring him up for 2 months and put him on the 40 man, which is possible, would that start his clock?

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Lets just say they do bring him up for 2 months and put him on the 40 man, which is possible, would that start his clock?

I could be wrong, but anything before 9/1 would start his clock.

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I'm good, I'm good...thanks Jim! :D

I don't think we've been slow to pick up on him as much as David has rapidly demonstrated signs of top-prospect talent within the last 10-12 months.

Where we ranked him as a prospect before this season was pretty accurate at the time based on his success at Frederick and the progress he'd made up to that point, but our reluctance to rank him higher was justified.

The only negatives I see with him at this point is he still gets up in the zone a little too much and the walks, both fixable issues.

Hopefully this won't just be seen as me busting chops, BUT if ranking players was just based on their progress then there wouldn't be a whole lot to FORECASTING the future success of prospects. Don't get me wrong. I think just about everyone missed a little on Hernandez, probably moreso other publications than the Hangouit. The OH ranked him 13 which certainly wasn't that bad. It is curious, admittedly in hindsight, to see Beato & Erbe both ranked ahead of Hernandez. Both arguably, had worse seasons than Hernandez, and neither really had better stuff even according to the Hangout. What they both had, was higher previous rankings and higher draft status. I think the higher previous rankings had more to do with them still being ranked higher than Hernandez on this year's prospect list than their draft status.

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Hopefully this won't just be seen as me busting chops, BUT if ranking players was just based on their progress then there wouldn't be a whole lot to FORECASTING the future success of prospects. Don't get me wrong. I think just about everyone missed a little on Hernandez, probably moreso other publications than the Hangouit. The OH ranked him 13 which certainly wasn't that bad. It is curious, admittedly in hindsight, to see Beato & Erbe both ranked ahead of Hernandez. Both arguably, had worse seasons than Hernandez, and neither really had better stuff even according to the Hangout. What they both had, was higher previous rankings and higher draft status. I think the higher previous rankings had more to do with them still being ranked higher than Hernandez on this year's prospect list than their draft status.

Not busting chops at all! I didn't mean to imply that there was no forecasting involved. It was tough even then to forecast that he'd continue to perform at such a high level. The upside with Beato and Erbe at the time were higher then. Hernandez made huge strides during the last half of 2007 and it only seemed logical that he might join the Baysox and scuffle a bit. I think there was a bit of skepticism, but Hernandez continues to power through the EL.

I really think this is a case of 20/20 hindsight and not oversight on our part or anyone elses. For David's sake, I hope he continues to make us reconsider where we ranked him pre-season!

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Not busting chops at all! I didn't mean to imply that there was no forecasting involved. It was tough even then to forecast that he'd continue to perform at such a high level. The upside with Beato and Erbe at the time were higher then. Hernandez made huge strides during the last half of 2007 and it only seemed logical that he might join the Baysox and scuffle a bit. I think there was a bit of skepticism, but Hernandez continues to power through the EL.

I really think this is a case of 20/20 hindsight and not oversight on our part or anyone elses. For David's sake, I hope he continues to make us reconsider where we ranked him pre-season!

I can see the argument for Erbe's upside being higher but not so sure I could have said the same for Beato, even at the time. I've never seen (admittedly just a few times on web.tv at Aberdeen), heard, or seen reported, Beato's velocity being anything other than low 90's, after being drafted (I heard mid 90's before he was drafted). Beato's numbers at Delmrava were so-so, and comparing strikeout numbers there's not even much of a comparison. Even at the time of the rankings I believe Hernandez was considered to have a plus fastball and a plus slider. So maybe I didn't say anything at the time (I don't remember) but that doesn't mean there wasn't some oversight involved. It seems like 20/20 now but it would be interesting to hear the reasoning of why Beato was ranked ahead of Hernandez back then. I know your already said he had higher upside, but my question is, "WHY"?

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SHENANIGANS!!!

Seriously?!?! I'm the Managing Editor here and I've been accused on several occassions of having a man-crush on the guy. Tony's did a full blown scouting report. I'd hardly say that he's under the radar. Not here, anyway.

Not only that, but oriole26 makes darned sure that there's a thread for every time Hernandez starts a game. He's hardly an unknown around here.

Still, I think you could make a case that Hernandez is underrespected. He's not usually mentioned in the same breath with Tillman and Arrieta, but he's arguably having a better season than either of them:

Hernandez: 2.63 ERA, 10.11 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, .209 BAA

Tillman: 3.08 ERA, 9.23 K/9, 2.13 K/BB, .214 BAA

Arrieta: 3.02 ERA, 9.17 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, .201 BAA

Tillman's three years younger pitching at the same level, so I think you'd have to give him the nod despite Hernandez's better numbers. But Arrieta is one year younger and one level down, so that's a fair comparison. I know it's not all about numbers, but the numbers make a pretty good case for DH.

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Could we say that the best pitcher in the Easten League didn't get picked for the All-Star team? Based on his last 4 starts you could.

Edited by orioole26

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