Yammering about the rule five is my favorite part of the off-season. I wonder who we might lose? I don’t think anybody’s going to take Sedlock, and if they do, I highly doubt they would keep him. We’ve already discussed pop, but I wonder if there any guys in the system who are on the radars of other teams?
Unprotected top 30 guys are of course the first place to look, but they are definitely not the only place to look.
Shaw has nothing to do with Nunez. There is no correlation at all. Shaw should be DFA’d at some point, probably soon. He can be outrighted. You’re not supposed to get excited about a move like this. It’s a potential depth move, with a big LH power upside if he can make some larger improvements. Chances are slim he can do that, but why not take a shot? He’ll be in AAA, unless he makes huge strides. And he does remind me of Chris Davis quite a bit.
I am not sure if Nunez was making what Valaika is due, projected around $1 million, that he would still be an Oriole. I doubt it. Roster space is one thing, roster flexibility is another, but he just would not have gotten the at bats. They need the at bats for Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mullins and Diaz when he comes up. Yes, some injury history in there, sure. But the upside and potential value in that group can only be developed with experience. They need these guys to get their at bats. They are all potential members of the next competitive team the Orioles have. And like 2020, Iglesias, and several others, might get some at bats at DH.
Why keep a guy around with no options, whose only tool is his bat, when he’s not going to get at bats? I think that is smart, not cheap. Now if they did that to Mancini, that would be cheap. Without the albatross of the Davis contract, I still think Nunez is out. He needs to be a regular to be productive, he’s not a bench guy.
Here's my 2020 update to the list of top Orioles draft picks in the 21str Century. BB-ref changed their calculations for rWAR slightly, so even some of the retired players saw slight changes in their numbers. I decided to be very conservative in changing the order of last year's list, so the only player I moved up was Mike Yastrzemski, moving from no. 17 to no. 14. I easily could have moved him higher than that, considering he was a 14th round pick. Another good year for him in 2021 could put him in the top 10.
The only new player reaching 1.0 and joining the list is Austin Hays, who debuts at no. 27 but I expect he will be a fast riser. Hopefully there will be several new additions after the 2021 season.
It's interesting to note that the entire top 10 were still active as of 2020, but none of them appeared in an Orioles uniform this season (Trey Mancini is no. 9 but didn't play; the other 9 all played for other teams). Of the 27 on the list, only Mancini (9), Means (13) and Hays (27) are currently on our roster.
1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 39.5 rWAR
2. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 25.9 rWAR
3. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.8 rWAR
4. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.5 rWAR
5. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR
6. Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 7.1 rWAR
7. Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 9.7 rWAR
8. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 11.2 rWAR
9. Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 6.6 rWAR
10. Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.8 rWAR
11. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR
12. Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 6.9 rWAR
13. John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 5.7 rWAR
14. Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 5.2 rWAR
15. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR
16. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR
17. John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR
18. Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR
19. Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR
20. Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.3 rWAR
21. Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 3.1 rWAR
22. Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR
23. Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR
24. Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR
25. Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR
26. Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR
27. Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 1.0 rWAR
Total: 27 players, 254.9 rWAR
2000-09: 15 players, 153.9 rWAR
2009-20: 12 players, 101.0 rWAR