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Britton Trade Expectations

Britton Trade Expectations  

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  1. 1. What trade return do you expect for Zach Britton?

    • The return will be outstanding
    • The return will be solid
    • The return will be merely decent
    • The return will comparable to Colin Moran: low OBP, below average power, poor fielder with a limited future in MLB
    • The return will be worse than Colin Moran
    • The Orioles will not trade Britton and will not receive a compensation pick since there is no chance they will QO him.

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  • Poll closed on 7/20/2018 at 03:59

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55 minutes ago, theobird said:

Hand is good, Britton is in another stratosphere. You are probably right, this really doesn't effect ZB's value too much. But it does show that closers will command a high return.

Since the day the 2016 season ended, Brad Hand has been a better and healthier pitcher than Zach Britton. He's also locked up through 2022. Brad Hand has significantly more value than Zach Britton.

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2 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Neither. ZB and Hand aren't comparable. Hand is under contract - at a very affordable rate - for three years. Britton is a 2-month rental. 

Oh... it matters. Hand and ZB are not the same, but Britton is likely the best reliever available now. Cleveland go another 6 years of service time (after this season) for Meija, but the fact that they gave Meija up for those two guys probably helps the Orioles in negotiations. IF the Orioles wanted to deal Britton and eat some of his salary for this season the return could be really good IMO. GREAT trade by the Padres. Any time I can turn a top reliever into a top position prospect I am taking it if I am a GM.

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3 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Since the day the 2016 season ended, Brad Hand has been a better and healthier pitcher than Zach Britton. He's also locked up through 2022. Brad Hand has significantly more value than Zach Britton.

I guess my point is that they just got a top 10 prospect for a good relief pitcher. ZB is a rental, but he might be the best relief arm that happens to be a rental. The return should net the Orioles a top 100 prospect IMO.

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The trade directly increases Britton's value a bit, because Hand was the best reliever available on the market.  Teams now have less reason to hold back on making a good offer for Britton.

More importantly from a fan's point of view, the Hand trade reiterates that the market value of quality relievers is sky-high at the deadline, which increases the value we can expecte to get for Britton (and maybe Brach and Givens).  This isn't a causal effect so much as a revelation of information.   

I'll be shocked if we get anyone as good as Francisco Mejia, even if we package Britton with Jones, Givens, etc--Mejia is one of the best prospects in baseball, better than Yusniel Diaz, for instance--but I now expect that we're going to get a very good prospect.  

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4 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Since the day the 2016 season ended, Brad Hand has been a better and healthier pitcher than Zach Britton. He's also locked up through 2022. Brad Hand has significantly more value than Zach Britton.

Since April 2017 when Britton got hurt maybe, not the day the 2016 season ended. Hand definitely has more value though.

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7 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

Could Britton, Givens and Jones have netted Meija?

Their value is more than just Hand, but not likely.  This trade is a lot about controllability.

This does increase Brittons value (simple supply and demand) but it also does indicate to me the level of prospect you should expect.

I would expect Britton will fetch a prospect in the 8-12 range of some organization.

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5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Their value is more than just Hand, but not likely.  This trade is a lot about controllability.

This does increase Brittons value (simple supply and demand) but it also does indicate to me the level of prospect you should expect.

I would expect Britton will fetch a prospect in the 8-12 range of some organization.

I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised. I think the type of prospect who'd headline a Britton deal will be of the quality that only the Braves and the Padres have 8+ prospects of that value.

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40 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Since April 2017 when Britton got hurt maybe, not the day the 2016 season ended. Hand definitely has more value though.

I said better and healthier pitcher since the day 2016 ended. He wasn't more valuable until Britton came out rusty/hurt last year.

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23 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Their value is more than just Hand, but not likely.  This trade is a lot about controllability.

This does increase Brittons value (simple supply and demand) but it also does indicate to me the level of prospect you should expect.

I would expect Britton will fetch a prospect in the 8-12 range of some organization.

Precisely. The Indians are a small market team. Even if the O's ate most of the money in a Jones/Britton/Brach package, they'd have balked at dealing Mejia, because all three guys would be elsewhere in 2019.

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3 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I said better and healthier pitcher since the day 2016 ended. He wasn't more valuable until Britton came out rusty/hurt last year.

Definitely splitting hairs, but Britton didn't allow a run and was just as good until the day he first got hurt in April 2017. Britton didn't start the season rusty/hurt.

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35 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Their value is more than just Hand, but not likely.  This trade is a lot about controllability.

This does increase Brittons value (simple supply and demand) but it also does indicate to me the level of prospect you should expect.

I would expect Britton will fetch a prospect in the 8-12 range of some organization.

A Boston writer estimated Brittons value simIar to what the nationals paid to get Kevin Herrera.

To refresh they got Blake Perkins , Kevin Guitierrez, and Rookie league pitcher Yohanse Morel.

KC usually has a pretty good rated system and MLB has Guitierrez at 7 and Perkins at 14. 

 

I'd ask for

Astros  Alacala/Perez/Martin/Armenteros and Arauz

Phillies  Romero/Suarez/De Los Santos and Irvin or Maton

Dodgers Smith and Gonsolin

Indians Jones/Civale and Clement/Aiken

 

Id love to get Nolan Jones from Cleveland

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26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised. I think the type of prospect who'd headline a Britton deal will be of the quality that only the Braves and the Padres have 8+ prospects of that value.

What do you think of Britton for Max Fried of the Braves?  Fried has seemed to be on the verge of making the Braves rotation but hasn't seemed quite ready.  Otoh, he's a talented lefty who always seems to be high on their list of prospects.  At 24 years old, if the Braves don't give him a full shot, he's going to lose value.  That's why I'm thinking the Braves might do this even though Fried probably has more trade value.    

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