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Grade the Gausman Deal

Grade the Gausman Deal  

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  1. 1. What’s your grade for the Gausman deal


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  • Poll closed on 8/11/2018 at 01:24

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9 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

I posted this assessment on another site, but I was originally disappointed and thought the Braves took advantage of us.  After calming down and reading up on all that was in play, I thought it was a pretty good deal and took away four points from it: 

 

1.) Gausman doesn't have a positive trending track record. He's had good stretches and half seasons, and bad stretches. This isn't like the Schoop deal, where he's trended up every year and you can argue he had a bad first half. We dealt Gausman as a controllable starter with great stuff, but is inconsistent. I wonder if the Braves try to slow his delivery down as the Cubs did with Arrieta.  

2.) They also wanted to dump the O'Day contract. From comments made from Duquette, he is emulating the tanking strategy and wants to get there quickly. After the Britton trade, Spotrac had us committing $69 million next year to a handful of veterans, and with a payroll over $100 million once arbitration raises are put in. This deal is saving us $9 million with O'Day next year, the the substantial raise Gausman is likely to see from his almost $6 million contract this year (he was a Super 2 player I think.). So this deal also gets substantial money off the books for next year. 

3.) The $2.5 million is going to go a long way to sign Victor Victor Mesa. The Orioles have the cash to bring both him and his brother in, something none of the other teams in the running have right now. It is essentially down to the Orioles and Marlins.

4.) Seriously read up on the prospects we are getting back. Encarnacion is a toolsy guy, someone that the Orioles up until now do not like to draft and develop. He has a low floor, but a high ceiling. If he was 14th in the Braves' loaded system, he's likely a top 5-8 guy for us. Phillips is a great reliever candidate for the back of the bullpen, and Zimmermann is an underrated piece and could be the best of them all- read this link- https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/7/10/17551486/the-rise-of-atlanta-braves-minor-league-prospect-bruce-zimmermann  
 

Very insightful take. I still rate the trade a C, but that's based on available information today. 

I'll happily adjust my grade as more information flows into the pipeline, and we see how these players pan out. The wonders of Bayesian inference...

If I had to guess, Encarnacion will become an everyday player for us. I don't think any of the other guys will make a major impact. 

One funny sidenote: Cumberland was rated the 30th best prospect in the Braves system. He's also rated the 30th best prospect (by MLB) in OUR system. 

Not sure what that says about our system right now, or theirs... but it's interesting. 

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2 hours ago, baltfan said:

To me this deal is all contingent on What do with international dollars.  If don’t spend them all, then this is a dud 

I’ve seen many posts similar to this. I am keeping an open mind, but am somewhat curious as to how the Orioles are going to use all of the slot money acquired if VVM and Gaston elect to play in Miami, New York, or somewhere else (I am aware of the Walton report on VVM). The overwhelming majority of the top level talent has signed (or is otherwise committed, such as Jose Baez Ramirez, Jose Ramirez’ younger brother, to the Indians) and I can’t envision the organization spending its current allotment on fringe players just to do it when such players are unlikely to make a substantial impact. If it was possible to carry over the unused portion of the allotment to 3 years from now, I would find the slot money more valuable as hopefully the organization will have established some relationships in the international market at that time. Given that it isn’t possible, the organization seems to be in a VVM and Gaston or bust situation.

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http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/08/09/klawchat-8-9-18/

Quote

romorr: There enough J2 talent to justify that Gausman trade if we lose out on Victor Victor? That inclusion of O’Day is awful right? A rebuilding team saving 10 million, at the costs of better prospects, is indefensible. 
Keith Law: There’s no justifying it even if you get VVM, because the trade only gave you a ‘portion’ of him. I am assuming ownership ordered Duquette to shave payroll.

Don't like Keith Law much but he's on point here.

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2 hours ago, LocoChris said:

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/08/09/klawchat-8-9-18/

Don't like Keith Law much but he's on point here.

For the most part yes, but I don’t think anyone is looking at the trade and thinking the 2.5m in slot is a significant part of the return. Dumping O’Day’s salary was a significant part of the return whether one likes it or not. Also to go back to the international money, they do have more than they need, but to be fair, Miami could have added more (and still can with waiver trades), in which case it may have been needed.

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2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This might be in preparation for sale of the team this offseason. 

Not sure about a sale, but clearing salary with the MASN dispute, possible (likely) upcoming attendance revenue decrease, need for additional investment in scouting/player development, and generally a bloated MLB payroll would be plenty of reasons to want to shed salary regardless of the possible sale of the team.

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6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

For the most part yes, but I don’t think anyone is looking at the trade and thinking the 2.5m in slot is a significant part of the return. Dumping O’Day’s salary was a significant part of the return whether one likes it or not. Also to go back to the international money, they do have more than they need, but to be fair, Miami could have added more (and still can with waiver trades), in which case it may have been needed.

I agree. The trade was all about dumping salary.

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14 minutes ago, theocean said:

I agree. The trade was all about dumping salary.

Agree also. But that's not necessarily a bad thing. O'Day was set to make $9M next year and there's no need for a $9M RP on a rebuilding team.  Additionally, no telling what kinda pitcher O'Day will be next year. Hasn't looked great since 2015, another year older next year, coming off significant injury.

 

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58 minutes ago, Whammer said:

Gausman pitching tonight in big series against the Brewers.  Looks like it'll be broadcast on MLBN. 

Friday night lights!  I love it!  Jonathan might take him deep (if he plays 😉 )  

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20 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

Shedding $9 mil at the expense of better prospects isn’t what a rebuilding team should be doing. 

Disagree.  Shedding salary is a huge part of what they should be doing.  Tampa Bay is committed to less than $10mil next year.  Now, when they're done with arbitration and the minimum salaries for their pre-arb players, it will certainly be more than that.  But, they dumped all of their big salaries.  We've added quality depth to the farm, even if we didn't get more than one potential "star" player.  We've added international slot allocation to help us reel in the consensus #1 international amateur in this year's class.  We've committed to spending more on scouting, player development, and international talent.  That cost money and one of the ways you get that money is to shed unneeded salaries.  O'Day was an unneeded salary.

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