Jump to content
Frobby

Grade the Gausman Deal

Grade the Gausman Deal  

187 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What’s your grade for the Gausman deal


  • Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.
  • Poll closed on 8/11/2018 at 01:24

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I'm a Braves fan, and I've been following their minor leagues very closely for years, so I'm not talking out of my ass.

These are starting pitching prospects that were ahead of Wilson at the time of the trade:

Touki Toussaint

Kolby Allard

Mike Soroka

Ian Anderson

Kyle Wright

Luis Gohara

Joey Wentz

Max Fried - maybe not technically a rookie, but he's played most of the season in the minors, and they are still very high on him.  

That's 8 young guys that were not in the Braves rotation rated ahead of Wilson, and some would have put Kyle Muller up there with Wilson.  And if they had signed their high 1st rounder - Carter Stewart - he likely would have been rated up there, as well.  Instead, they get the 9th pick in next year's draft.  The Braves have the best group of young pitchers that any organization in baseball has - maybe the best they've ever had - and they once had Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery.  

If anyone says they expected Wilson to pitch in the majors this early, they're lying.  The Braves were and are in a pennant race, and Gausman was a huge get for them for which they gave up basically nothing of value to them.  And they have him for 2 more years - so this was no rental move for them like a lot of the trades before the deadline were.  And that's a major reason why the trade package should have been much bigger than it was, imo.          

Duq got fleeced.

 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Finisher said:

More like he escaped pitching purgatory where goofs actively hurt starting pitchers.

Yes, and facing a guy that absolutely can’t hit every 9th batter up doesn’t hurt much either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Flacco Machado said:

Man. 8ip 0 runs tonight. 

On a night when Harvey is hurt and Bundy continues to suck.

 

We have to sign VVM or this is a disaster. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, wildcard said:

There is probably little need to do a salary dump on O'Day and Gausman.  Just look at next years salary

Davis 23m

Trumbo 13.5m

Cashner 9.5m   (Probably traded at the deadline lower the salary to 6.5m)

Villar 4m

Bundy 5m ( Could be traded.  If they traded Gausman there is little reason to keep Bundy)

And   20 players at 545K = 10.9m

So that is somewhere between 58m and 66m.   There is room there for another 9m for O'day that could be 6m if he traded at the deadline.

Heck between the money the O's get from the MLB and the money they get from MASN included in cable contracts they would not need any attendance at all to break even.

This seems like a waste of time because discussing the above with you is likely to be futile.  

First, I see the benefit of shedding O'Day - that's $9M coming back on-line - a large $ amount.  It also opens up O'Day's 40 roster spot.

Second, your analysis is missing some big $ - particularly Alex Cobb and his $14M per year - not sure what is deferred if any.  Givens will be arb1, I believe.  Gausman gets a pay raise.  Add in O'Day and his $9M and one gets close to $100M without deferrals - for a likely 100 loss team. 

Third, I believe our revenues will be lower due to lower attendance by 25% in 2018 from 2017 - which will also hurt concessions.  Sponsorships may be hurt. 

Four, DD has hinted ownership is prepared to invest heavily to increase international scouting infrastructure, to increase international spend (by $8M) and a likely higher draft pool by a couple $M, and improved internal technology.

Five, it would not surprise me if a prudent advisor recommended we should start putting away some of the deferred $ from cash flow or start paying back the loan to PA by $5M -$10M per year.

I don't think the Os are going to cry poverty next year, but I think the cash flow to accomplish the above is a bit tighter than one would think and the best way to insure most of the investments can be made is by shedding payroll.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This deal may end up being th deal that seals DD’s fate.  I know he was told to cut payroll,  but no one liked this deal or thought it was fair even with them taking O’Day’s salary. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How good or bad Gausman is in Atlanta shouldn’t have any effect on the assessment of the trade.

Maybe an indictment of the McDowell or player development, but Gausman didn’t just develop overnight on the flight to Georgia. Maybe they are calling pitches with a different strategy or a different pitch mix. Maybe Gausman is just pitching better in a more optimistic clubhouse situation. Maybe it’s a more pitcher friendly park, NL competition, and pitchers batting. Maybe it’s a good group of starts. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

How good or bad Gausman is in Atlanta shouldn’t have any effect on the assessment of the trade.

Maybe an indictment of the McDowell or player development, but Gausman didn’t just develop overnight on the flight to Georgia. Maybe they are calling pitches with a different strategy or a different pitch mix. Maybe Gausman is just pitching better in a more optimistic clubhouse situation. Maybe it’s a more pitcher friendly park, NL competition, and pitchers batting. Maybe it’s a good group of starts. 

What I find annoying/troubling is that, under advice from his new team after a loss in his first start for Atlanta, Gausman has ditched his wind-up and is pitching exclusively from the stretch. He says it’s kept him from flying open and allows him better command of his fastball and slider.

It’s only three starts since then (all wins, 3 ER in 22 IP), so SSS, but please don’t tell me something that simple might be the answer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I'm a Braves fan, and I've been following their minor leagues very closely for years, so I'm not talking out of my ass.

These are starting pitching prospects that were ahead of Wilson at the time of the trade:

Touki Toussaint

Kolby Allard

Mike Soroka

Ian Anderson

Kyle Wright

Luis Gohara

Joey Wentz

Max Fried - maybe not technically a rookie, but he's played most of the season in the minors, and they are still very high on him.  

That's 8 young guys that were not in the Braves rotation rated ahead of Wilson, and some would have put Kyle Muller up there with Wilson.  And if they had signed their high 1st rounder - Carter Stewart - he likely would have been rated up there, as well.  Instead, they get the 9th pick in next year's draft.  The Braves have the best group of young pitchers that any organization in baseball has - maybe the best they've ever had - and they once had Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery.  

If anyone says they expected Wilson to pitch in the majors this early, they're lying.  The Braves were and are in a pennant race, and Gausman was a huge get for them for which they gave up basically nothing of value to them.  And they have him for 2 more years - so this was no rental move for them like a lot of the trades before the deadline were.  And that's a major reason why the trade package should have been much bigger than it was, imo.          

Yes the Braves have a lot of pitching prospects. No he was not below all these other pitching prospects three weeks ago around the time he was promoted  to AAA at 20 years old.  Pitchers get injured and some prospects don't make it.  The Braves are keeping their top pitching prospects and assuming some will make it and some won't.

I first became familiar with Bryse Wilson from this podcast at the beginning of the year.  Around the 50 minute mark, the prediction is that Wilson is the Braves best pitching prospect by the end of the year.

http://www.inthisleague.com/fantasybaseball/episode-63-prospect-bold-predictions-with-james-anderson-ralph-lifshitz-and-eddy-almaguer/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe Gausman is pitching like he has every other year of his career. 

Career WHIP by month:

April               1.512

May               1.482

June              1.433

July               1.345

August          1.216

September   1.193

Gausman pitching well in the second half of the season is not a surprise.  Before everyone jumps off a bridges about being fleeced, really need to see how he pitches next April, May and June too see if he has truly been fixed. 

We also need to keep in mind, Atlanta's defense is certainly better than what the O's have put out there with a DH manning each corner outfield slot and average to below average defenders at each infield position and center field. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I live in Atlanta and the Braves are my second team, so I am glad to see him pitching well here.  I hope it continues not only for the benefit of the Braves, but also so the Orioles can really try to figure out why we are so bad at developing starting pitching while other teams don't seem to have as many issues. 

If I had a son and he was a starting pitcher, I would never want him signing with Baltimore.  Anybody else would be better.  Now if I had a son who was a pitching coach, then Baltimore would be my first choice....since they will never fire you no matter how bad you are at your job. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Grienke might what?  Be bothered?  Sure.
    • Greinke might.  I know the Astros are bracketed for the Dodger Stadium ALDS, and the Dodgers are somewhere in Texas if they advance.  The storylines will be abundant if the Astros go one step closer in LA, and the Dodgers one step closer in Houston. Bonus question - will any good Astros still be there in two more years?  It's hard to name a team I think will lose more games than them in the next 5 years.  I understand Gurriel grabbing any port in a storm with his warts, but will be curious to see if Brantley or Springer show any inclination to stay. I guess it is conceivable Framber, Urquidy and Whitley are like Hudson, Mulder, Zito but would first guess Click's main thing the next couple years are the Bregman and Yordan deals to re-seed.  I think everyone else its just moving debt obligations around, and I say that as someone who would LOVE the 2021 Orioles playing their way to make taking some of those on reasonable.
    • I've always found it funny that people here think other teams would chomp at the bit for what we have.  And to combat that, I usually try to figure out what I'd want the Orioles to give up to acquire that player if we were trying to trade for him. For example, if the Reds had Nunez and we wanted him...what would you trade for him?  What would you trade for Ruiz?  Alberto? I'm certainly not high on our pitching prospects, but I can't really even see trading someone like Lowther and a lower level minor leaguer and cash for someone like Nunez.  And I like Nunez, he's been a fun player when he's hitting dongs and he's a good scrap heap pickup, but there's  not a lot of value there.
    • Santander-Mahle, or Santander-India? I doubt they have the financial flexibility to do much until they know the Bauer outcome.  I imagine more than they'd want any of our hitters, they might like our cash reserves to take on a chunk of toasty Votto. Davis for Votto, India and Mahle?    They did make a medium bet on Akiyama who to me today almost looked like a poor man's Cedric Mullins, and lack a real CF.
    • I was never bothered.  Teams cheat, players cheat.  Baseball mostly doesn't care.
    • I'll bet you a 6 pack of your favorite beer that AR is not an MVP candidate (top 3 finish) during his tenure as a Baltimore Oriole.  Feel free to check back in after the Yankees sign him.
    • Yeah, I’m kinda over what happened with the Astros.  It would be funny to hear everyone cry about it. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...