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Grade the Gausman Deal

Grade the Gausman Deal  

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  1. 1. What’s your grade for the Gausman deal


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  • Poll closed on 8/11/2018 at 01:24

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16 minutes ago, weams said:

 

I don't think Nightengale knows anything about prospects, but if you are on the high side of the range of opinions on all of these prospects, they are worth around 30M in surplus value, plus O'Day is owed 12M and would likely only be a 2-3M guy at best if he was on the open market, so that's 40M in value plus whatever you think the 2.5M of international allotment is worth. That's not quite the Machado return, but it's pretty close. 

Now I think Gausman should have been worth more than Machado, given the team control, so I'm not a big fan of the trade, but in concert with all the moves made (including the returns of other team's trades), I'm pretty happy with the decisive sell-off.

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3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't think Nightengale knows anything about prospects, but if you are on the high side of the range of opinions on all of these prospects, they are worth around 30M in surplus value, plus O'Day is owed 12M and would likely only be a 2-3M guy at best if he was on the open market, so that's 40M in value plus whatever you think the 2.5M of international allotment is worth. That's not quite the Machado return, but it's pretty close. 

Now I think Gausman should have been worth more than Machado, given the team control, so I'm not a big fan of the trade, but in concert with all the moves made (including the returns of other team's trades), I'm pretty happy with the decisive sell-off.

So the question is, how much do you think 2.5 million gets the O's in terms of international talent (minus whatever fraction of that could/would be applied to VVM)? 

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Just now, MrOrange82 said:

So the question is, how much do you think 2.5 million gets the O's in terms of international talent (minus whatever fraction of that could/would be applied to VVM)? 

I don't know, we'll have to wait and see. If the O's go out and snag all the best remaining players, that 2.5M will have been an extremely valuable acquisition. If VVM needed a premium to sign with the O's and that 2.5M is what made that possible, then it was an extremely valuable acquisition. But I don't know what's going to happen.

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2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't know, we'll have to wait and see. If the O's go out and snag all the best remaining players, that 2.5M will have been an extremely valuable acquisition. If VVM needed a premium to sign with the O's and that 2.5M is what made that possible, then it was an extremely valuable acquisition. But I don't know what's going to happen.

I'm banking on the idea that VVM won't/shouldn't take all of the O's international funds, especially since DD has indicated that Dominican/Venezuelan signings are inbound this week. If the end result is VVM and just 1-2 other guys. I'll be more skeptical overall. 

Speaking of which, are there any specific names from those countries who're unsigned and worth knowing? 

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Just now, MrOrange82 said:

I'm banking on the idea that VVM won't/shouldn't take all of the O's international funds, especially since DD has indicated that Dominican/Venezuelan signings are inbound this week. If the end result is VVM and just 1-2 other guys. I'll be more skeptical overall. 

Speaking of which, are there any specific names from those countries who're unsigned and worth knowing? 

I'm not an expert on it by any means, but VVM, Victor Jr, Gaston, Bonilla, and I think there might be one other ranked guy. I don't think the guys to be announced will be big names though, DD said something about players that other teams hadn't been talking to, so I doubt they are well known or more than 200k type signings. 

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Just now, Luke-OH said:

I'm not an expert on it by any means, but VVM, Victor Jr, Gaston, Bonilla, and I think there might be one other ranked guy. I don't think the guys to be announced will be big names though, DD said something about players that other teams hadn't been talking to, so I doubt they are well known or more than 200k type signings. 

It'll be interesting to see if the O's international apparatus, which DD has basically admitted is underdeveloped and behind other teams right now, can successfully ID guys worth spending on that other teams haven't spoken with. 

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2 minutes ago, MrOrange82 said:

It'll be interesting to see if the O's international apparatus, which DD has basically admitted is underdeveloped and behind other teams right now, can successfully ID guys worth spending on that other teams haven't spoken with. 

I mean, it's possible, but definitely less likely without the manpower or organization necessary. They've signed some 100k-300k guys the past couple years, none have turned into anything yet. 

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24 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't think Nightengale knows anything about prospects, but if you are on the high side of the range of opinions on all of these prospects, they are worth around 30M in surplus value, plus O'Day is owed 12M and would likely only be a 2-3M guy at best if he was on the open market, so that's 40M in value plus whatever you think the 2.5M of international allotment is worth. That's not quite the Machado return, but it's pretty close. 

Now I think Gausman should have been worth more than Machado, given the team control, so I'm not a big fan of the trade, but in concert with all the moves made (including the returns of other team's trades), I'm pretty happy with the decisive sell-off.

The problem is, people don't pay as much for potential. Gausman has never been able to put it all together, he might never. It's not like Britton who had one of the best seasons for a reliever in the history of the game, or Machado who has been consistent through his career. Gausman isn't an Ace, he's a mid rotation starter, back on some teams. 

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27 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I mean, it's possible, but definitely less likely without the manpower or organization necessary. They've signed some 100k-300k guys the past couple years, none have turned into anything yet. 

I always thought Calvin Maduro did the best he could in international scouting while operating with both arms tied behind his back. It appears that he is still a scout for the organization, but could anyone confirm?

With respect to the Gausman deal, I think my issues with it are three-fold. First, I find it difficult to refer to Encarnacion as a “headliner” with his very apparent flaws, as I don’t think the trade really had a headliner. Second, without knowing how important the money is to the organization (I assume very), I would prefer that they be buying talent (e.g., a better prospect by not dumping O’Day into the deal, similar to how the Braves bought a competitive balance pick by absorbing Matusz’ salary) after offloading salary in the Machado, Britton, Brach, and Schoop deals. Third, notwithstanding @CamdenDepot’s tweets that the trade was roughly equivalent to the Gray deal in terms of value, I’m finding it difficult to believe that the organization’s most valuable asset (in my opinion) brought back only a lottery ticket, a potential back-up catcher that purportedly can’t catch, a bullpen arm, and a senior sign that is unlikely to be more than an org guy. In contrast with the Gray deal, it’s hard to sell this as a quality return because much of the value is tied up in dumping salary and quantity.

Edited by Sydnor
Typo

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21 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I always thought Calvin Maduro did the best he could in international scouting while operating with both arms tied behind his back. It appears that he is still a scout for the organization, but could anyone confirm?

With respect to the Gausman deal, I think my issues with it are three-fold. First, I find it difficult to refer to Encarnacion as a “headliner” with his very apparent flaws, as I don’t think the trade really had a headliner. Second, without knowing how important the money is to the organization (I assume very), I would prefer that they be buying talent (e.g., a better prospect by not dumping O’Day into the deal, similar to how the Braves bought a competitive balance pick by absorbing Matusz’ salary) after offloading salary in the Machado, Britton, Brach, and Schoop deals. Third, notwithstanding @CamdenDepot’s tweets that the trade was roughly equivalent to the Gray deal in terms of value, I’m finding it difficult to believe that the organization’s most valuable asset (in my opinion) brought back only a lottery ticket, a potential back-up catcher that purportedly can’t catch, a bullpen arm, and a senior sign that is unlikely to be more than an org guy. In contrast with the Gray deal, it’s hard to sell this as a quality return because much of the value is tied up in dumping salary and quantity.

I actually think the Gausman deal, compared to the Gray deal isn't as bad as some are saying. yes, the Gray deal had three top 100 guys. But one was trending downward for over a full season and is struggling in AAA(jorge Mateo), an injured high ceiling pitcher who required tommy john and will be 25 for the 2019 season(also don't know how he will bounce back from the injury and hasn't played in 2018), and an outfielder coming off a serious knee injury(for me, he was the centerpiece and has the highest ceiling, currently in the MLB).

We got 2.5 million in international cash, which could be used to sign some quality talent other than VVM.

We dumped a ton of salary which can be reinvested into scouting and analytics.

We might have gotten a prospect with the highest ceiling in the system in Jean Carlos Encarnacion. He will stick at third with a plus arm and solid defense. He has plus raw power. You say he has obvious flaws, I assume that being his K/BB ratio. I'm not concerned, the kid is only 20 and will mature. Look at Mountcastle's stats in low A, they are extremely similar. Nobody is complaining about Mountcastle. And yes Mountcastle is a year younger, but different guys are a bit more/less polished at different ages and thus take differing developmental timelines.

We might have gotten a backend starter in Zimmerman. IMO, Zimmerman has a higher ceiling than most believe. I think he will play up as he has a good low 90s sinker from the left side, has shown the ability to miss bats, and has two solid secondaries along with good command. I think he could play up to be a mid rotation guy even though he has #4/5 stuff.

We got a catcher with a great batting eye, 23 yrs old and now in AA. He might not have a good hit tool, but he has average-above average power. Defense allows him to stick at catcher. He has upside of a starter and a floor of backup catcher.

We also got a MLB-ready reliever dominating in AAA. 23 yrs old, fastball sits at 93-96 with a solid slider. He will be at the very least a cost-controlled middle reliever, with the potential of being a 7th inning guy. That, while uninspiring, is valuable.

The Gausman deal IS uninspiring, but IMO has more value to this organization than the Gray package would have.

 

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35 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

(e.g., a better prospect by not dumping O’Day into the deal, similar to how the Braves bought a competitive balance pick by absorbing Matusz’ salary)

Braves took Brett Cumberland with that competitive balance pick, who is part of this package. Full circle.

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8 minutes ago, Thato'sfan said:

I actually think the Gausman deal, compared to the Gray deal isn't as bad as some are saying. yes, the Gray deal had three top 100 guys. But one was trending downward for over a full season and is struggling in AAA(jorge Mateo), an injured high ceiling pitcher who required tommy john and will be 25 for the 2019 season(also don't know how he will bounce back from the injury and hasn't played in 2018), and an outfielder coming off a serious knee injury(for me, he was the centerpiece and has the highest ceiling, currently in the MLB).

We got 2.5 million in international cash, which could be used to sign some quality talent other than VVM.

We dumped a ton of salary which can be reinvested into scouting and analytics.

We might have gotten a prospect with the highest ceiling in the system in Jean Carlos Encarnacion.

We might have gotten a backend starter in Zimmerman. IMO, Zimmerman has a higher ceiling than most believe. I think he will play up as he has a good low 90s sinker from the left side, has shown the ability to miss bats, and has two solid secondaries along with good command. I think he could play up to be a mid rotation guy even though he has #4/5 stuff.

We got a catcher with a great batting eye, 23 yrs old and now in AA. He might not have a good hit tool, but he has average-above average power. Defense allows him to stick at catcher. He has upside of a starter and a floor of backup catcher.

We also got a MLB-ready reliever dominating in AAA. 23 yrs old, fastball sits at 93-96 with a solid slider. He will be at the very least a cost-controlled middle reliever, with the potential of being a 7th inning guy. That, while uninspiring, is valuable.

The Gausman deal IS uninspiring, but IMO has more value to this organization than the Gray package would have.

 

This is certainly a fair take. Given that the organization seems to have insisted on dumping O’Day’s salary, I’d probably feel a lot better about the trade if the organization had received one of  Toussaint, Allard, Wilson, or Wentz instead of the Phillips and Zimmerman. However, that may have tilted the overall value of the package beyond Gausman’s excess value.

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13 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

This is certainly a fair take. Given that the organization seems to have insisted on dumping O’Day’s salary, I’d probably feel a lot better about the trade if the organization had received one of  Toussaint, Allard, Wilson, or Wentz instead of the Phillips and Zimmerman. However, that may have tilted the overall value of the package beyond Gausman’s excess value.

Yeah, I would've loved touki toussaint. But now that we have a lot of pitchers with #3 ceilings and a few with frontline potential I feel a lot more comfortable with not trading for pitchers. Well thought out trade by the O's.

In delmarva:

  1. Hanifee has #3 ceiling and could push the ceiling higher with more polish and improvement of secondaries(which have taken some steps forward, just need more consistency).
  2. Hall has TOR potential
  3. Bishop could be a back end starter

In Frederick:

  1. Lowther has back end upside
  2. Baumann has back end upside
  3. Wells has back end upside
  4. Sedlock could still become a mid rotation arm(longshot)
  5. Dietz has mid rotation ceiling

In Bowie:

  1. Luis Ortiz has #3 projections, could be even better with improved conditioning and fitness
  2. Dillon Tate has ceiling of #3 or a #2 if he can improve fastball command and secondary consistency
  3. Akin has #3 ceiling
  4. Kremer has #3 ceiling
  5. Brian Gonzalez has back end upside
  6. Zimmerman has backend/mid-rotation upside
  7. Harvey has TOR upside

In Norfolk:

  1. John means has back end upside
  2. Josh Rogers has back end upside
  3. David Hess has back end upside

In Baltimore:

  1. Bundy has mid rotation upside
  2. Ramirez has back end upside
  3. Cobb can be a mid rotation guy and is under contract through 2021
  4. Cashner is under team control through 2020 if we use the team option and is a mid/backend guy

 

Oh and Grayson Rodriguez has TOR potential.

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I posted this assessment on another site, but I was originally disappointed and thought the Braves took advantage of us.  After calming down and reading up on all that was in play, I thought it was a pretty good deal and took away four points from it: 

 

1.) Gausman doesn't have a positive trending track record. He's had good stretches and half seasons, and bad stretches. This isn't like the Schoop deal, where he's trended up every year and you can argue he had a bad first half. We dealt Gausman as a controllable starter with great stuff, but is inconsistent. I wonder if the Braves try to slow his delivery down as the Cubs did with Arrieta.  

2.) They also wanted to dump the O'Day contract. From comments made from Duquette, he is emulating the tanking strategy and wants to get there quickly. After the Britton trade, Spotrac had us committing $69 million next year to a handful of veterans, and with a payroll over $100 million once arbitration raises are put in. This deal is saving us $9 million with O'Day next year, the the substantial raise Gausman is likely to see from his almost $6 million contract this year (he was a Super 2 player I think.). So this deal also gets substantial money off the books for next year. 

3.) The $2.5 million is going to go a long way to sign Victor Victor Mesa. The Orioles have the cash to bring both him and his brother in, something none of the other teams in the running have right now. It is essentially down to the Orioles and Marlins.

4.) Seriously read up on the prospects we are getting back. Encarnacion is a toolsy guy, someone that the Orioles up until now do not like to draft and develop. He has a low floor, but a high ceiling. If he was 14th in the Braves' loaded system, he's likely a top 5-8 guy for us. Phillips is a great reliever candidate for the back of the bullpen, and Zimmermann is an underrated piece and could be the best of them all- read this link- https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/7/10/17551486/the-rise-of-atlanta-braves-minor-league-prospect-bruce-zimmermann  
 

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I think DD deserves the benefit of the doubt in this deal - so I gave this a solid B with possible upside.  There is a little bit of everything sprinkled in here and while everyone wants that big headliner, the fact is that not many headliners were traded at this deadline.  Mejia is a FV55 who netted a cost controlled closer and a second cost controlled bullpen arm.  Kilome is a 50.  I like Gausman - have always liked him, and the results have been just fine, but he's not an ace and he's really not a 2 IMO.  Gausman is on his way to about a 3.25 WAR 2018 campaign.  If the Braves can tweak something, then that is on the coaching and development guys, and that would be disappointing.  Maybe a better defense helps KG, but I saw him pitch on Saturday and he is giving up a good number of HRs - maybe some of those balls stay in the park in Atlanta.  Still, the ERA+ of 94 last year and 95 this year and the FIP of 4.48 last year and 4.58 this year are generally unimpressive.  I just have to assume the Braves were the winners in a competitive bid process and they weren't going to part with any of their top 10-12 guys.  

I believe during the DD Toronto fiasco that I read top prospects can be worth $30M-$50M - so in shedding O'Day we picked up about a third to a quarter of a top prospect - or perhaps a higher % of a good prospect.  Folks here would rather spend that $ towards a top prospect, but presumably one wasn't available - so, let's shed some salary.  Good.

The international slot $ is big.  We just acquired Ramirez (FV45) for international slots last year.  The NYY just traded relief pitcher Warren who is on his way to a 1 WAR year to the Mariners for half the slot $ we just picked up.

We picked up at least two FV45s in Encarnacion and Cumberland while Zimmerman is coming on fairly fast as a prospect.

I don't see this deal as needing to be validated by signing VVM.  My concern is that we don't spend this $ if we don't sign VVM, but we'll deal with that if it comes to that.  DD now has 11 months to sign $8+M of international talent with a poor internal infrastructure.  Time to get busy.

When one stops whining about not picking up a FV55 or FV 60 prospect, this trade checks a LOT of boxes.  Thumbs up.

 

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