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Frobby

Post third party opinions/rankings on the trades/new prospects here

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jim Bowden gave us a B+, though his reasoning is behind a paywall.  https://theathletic.com/453436/2018/08/01/bowden-grading-all-30-mlb-teams-on-their-trade-deadline-moves/

Here's what Bowden said:

Quote

The Orioles did what you’re supposed to do with the worst record in baseball: They blew it all up and started a rebuild. General manager Dan Duquette said it best right after the deadline, telling reporters, “I hear it’s easier to demolish the entire house and rebuild from the ground up rather than renovating one room at a time.” That’s what he did by trading Machado, Schoop, Britton, Gausman and Brach, among others, and leaving few recognizable players like Dylan Bundy and Adam Jones — the latter of whom would have been traded, too, if he had agreed to waive his 10-and-5 rights. The Orioles received a strong return for the rental of Machado, highlighted by Yusniel Diaz, who profiles out as a future middle-of-the-order corner outfielder, and Rylan Bannon, who also looks to be a future everyday third baseman. The O’s did better than most teams have this season in their return for closer Zach Britton, and paved the way for a different future by accepting international bonus pool money in the Brach and Gausman deals. The deadline went so well for Duquette that he deserves a long-term contract extension to let him see the rebuild through.

Nice to hear his opinion I suppose but his write-ups are consistently off-base IMO.

For example, he projects Bannon to be an everyday third baseman. I would love for that to happen but that's the first projection I've heard of him in that light. He also mentioned Cody Carroll as having a power spike curveball in a different article and projected him to a middle-relief role. Carroll doesn't even throw a curveball from what I can tell and scouting reports basically all project him as a back-end bullpen guy.

Let me know if I'm off on this but I just find his writing very lazy.

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7 minutes ago, epic said:

Here's what Bowden said:

Nice to hear his opinion I suppose but his write-ups are consistently off-base IMO.

For example, he projects Bannon to be an everyday third baseman. I would love for that to happen but that's the first projection I've heard of him in that light. He also mentioned Cody Carroll as having a power spike curveball in a different article and projected him to a middle-relief role. Carroll doesn't even throw a curveball from what I can tell and scouting reports basically all project him as a back-end bullpen guy.

Let me know if I'm off on this but I just find his writing very lazy.

I’m interested in what he has to say, but overall don’t find him to be a very astute analyst.  

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42 minutes ago, NedFromYork said:

I like trading Machado, Britton, Brach, but would have kept Gausman and Schoop who are signed for two more years after this.  The chance to retool quickly is there, trade them in two years at the deadline if not a WS threat.  Still have Cobb, Bundy, (Gausman), in two years, can be competitive with young (OF) defense and improved OBP, trade them then.

Jones is one I would have liked to move, Trumbo as well.  I guess since Cashner is only signed for next year, he'd be another.

If we want the #1 pick, still could have done that by skipping some starts for Bundy and Gausman, go to a 6 man rotation, etc.

Schoop only has one year after this one (FA after 2019).

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I find the Fangraphs prospect board illuminating in trying to assess the O's haul, especially in terms of quality vs. quantity. Sorting for Baltimore and slotting the newbies into our top list laden with recent years draft picks, forms a fair basis of comparative value, in my nonexpert opinion. In the summary list below, D means draft round, # means Fangraphs ranking in our farm system.

***************************************************

Diaz #1, above Mountcastle (D1) and Hall (D1)

Cumberland (D2) #4, above Hays (D3), GrayRod (D1), Mullins.

Ortiz (D1) #8, above Harvey (D1), Lowther (D2), Tate (D1)

Encarnacion #10, above Knight (D3)

Tate (D1) #12, above McKenna (D4), Dietz (D2), Hannifee

Carmona #15, above Dietz (D2)

Kremer #18, above Grenier (D1), Stewart (D1)

Carroll #21, above Akin (D2)

******************************************************

If the shoe were on the other foot, would we have been happy trading our top prospects in the above list for a MLB star rental, or commodities like Gausman & Schoop?

In essence we got four years' worth of extra first and second round picks, all at once. (Makes up for some previous picks forfeited!).

Judging by "quality" alone, we got:

for Machado rental: Diaz (1), Kremer (18)

for Britton rental: Tate (12), Carroll (21)

for Gausman: Cumberland (4), Encarnacion (10)

for Schoop: Ortiz (8), Carmona (15)

-------------------------

Just taking the above numbers at face value, it appears the Britton trade netted the least return... when you might have expected it should be the best (a la Chapman, Miller).

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Fangraphs rates Cumberland much more highly than I have seen anyone else rate him. They have him as our 4th best prospect, the 11th ranked catching prospect in MLB and the 7th best prospect traded at the deadline (behind only Diaz among the O's other returns).

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