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Jonathan Villar- Our new 2B?

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16 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

 

Let’s judge the deal based on five days.   That’s a really sound way to judge a trade.   Just look at how indicative Tim Beckham’s first five games were.   Or first 30 games for that matter.    

All I gave was an opinion of what I've seen so far. Is that not allowed? And Villar has had solid seasons before. Beckham isn't a good comparison.  Have I ever kicked your dog? You seem to respond to me with alot of snark. Do you have an issue with me?

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20 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

All I gave was an opinion of what I've seen so far. Is that not allowed? And Villar has had solid seasons before. Beckham isn't a good comparison.  Have I ever kicked your dog? You seem to respond to me with alot of snark. Do you have an issue with me?

No, not at all.   I apologize for my tone.    And sure, you can give your opinion based on what you’ve seen so far.    I merely meant to point out that first impressions can be very misleading in baseball.    Sorry that it came off the way it did.  

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Villar is not a better player than Schoop.   But Villar does give us an extra year of service, and he has leadoff skills that have been sorely lacking on this team for several years.   Of course, those leadoff skills depend on him being able to maintain a decent OBP.   Last year he didn’t, and this year his OBP is just OK for a leadoff guy.   League average at leadoff is .329 OBP, the O’s are at .301, and Villar is carrying .327 for the season (regardless of where he bats).    So, he’s an upgrade at leadoff in terms of OBP and speed for us, even if not outstanding in the context of the league as a whole.

To put Villar's OBP in perspective, Schoop's is .264 right now. Villar might not be "better" than Schoop, but he has a higher career OBP and is currently ahead of Schoop in WAR. I definitely would not say that Schoop is better than Villar.

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Through 6 ish seasons -

Schoop has been worth 11 WAR

Villar has been worth 7.

Seems straight forward to me.   And I still have absolutely no qualms with the Schoop trade for the future of our franchise.   Schoop is going to be somewhat expensive soon while we are going nowhere.  Plus we got two non-zero prospects.

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2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

To put Villar's OBP in perspective, Schoop's is .264 right now. Villar might not be "better" than Schoop, but he has a higher career OBP and is currently ahead of Schoop in WAR. I definitely would not say that Schoop is better than Villar.

Very different skill sets offensively.    Schoop’s more of a power guy, Villar is more of an OBP and speed guy.   Interestingly, Villar strikes out a bit more than Schoop.    Overall, I’d still say Schoop (11.2 rWAR in 640 games) is better than Villar (7.2 rWAR in 567 games), though Villar arguably has had the better year so far.   Obviously the Orioles and Brewers thought so, or the trade wouldn’t have made sense for the Brewers.

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very different skill sets offensively.    Schoop’s more of a power guy, Villar is more of an OBP and speed guy.   Interestingly, Villar strikes out a bit more than Schoop.    Overall, I’d still say Schoop (11.2 rWAR in 640 games) is better than Villar (7.2 rWAR in 567 games), though Villar arguably has had the better year so far.   Obviously the Orioles and Brewers thought so, or the trade wouldn’t have made sense for the Brewers.

Yes, agreed. Much prefer all of the above to generalizations about which guy is better, even when phrased in the negative.

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Villar is not going to be part of the next contending Oriole team, and therefore, what we hope is to see him perform better than his averages so the Orioles can flip him later.  That's about it.

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I don't get the fit with Schoop in Milwaukee - but maybe they have plans to make other changes there.  Either way, I hope he does well.  He did a great job with the O's and represented well.  It was a real pleasure to watch him and Manny.  

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1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

I don't get the fit with Schoop in Milwaukee - but maybe they have plans to make other changes there.  Either way, I hope he does well.  He did a great job with the O's and represented well.  It was a real pleasure to watch him and Manny.  

I really don't understand the acquisition from their perspective either -- but that's not our problem is it?  ^_^

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4 hours ago, foxfield said:

All of this discussion is great.  But the final verdict depends on a number of factors which are unknown.

 

I will say that the actual performance on the field is great but as we saw last year with Beckham, SSS can be huge and it means nothing really.

Except, we got a guy who has some tools, some time under control, and he comes at a cost that compared to Schoop is attractive.  We are not winning the world series next year or the year after that.

If this guy stays healthy, we already won the deal, not in terms of did we do better than Milwaukee, but did we accomplish what we wanted.  He is a place holder.  IF he were to somehow flourish long enough to matter, he would present the same resign option that we had with Schoop or he could be traded.  If he reverts to a fringe MLB player with an average glove, then he fills a spot until someone takes it.

There is plenty of time to debate Villar's actual value and what it means to the Orioles future.  There is plenty of time to debate whether we got anything out of the Schoop trade at all.  But on the surface, if getting a placeholder infielder at a cheaper rate than Schoop was important, it appears that was accomplished.  I sure hope that the longer term assets turn out, because in the end....that is gonna be more important.  Too early, but I like what I see.

Well, the thing about Villar is he actually has proven to be a quality player at the major league level, while having one outstanding season. Beckham was a top prospect that never really amounted to much more than a decent utility guy for the most part for the Rays.

As I said, I don't expect Villar to be 2016 Villar, but he doesn't need to be to be a very rock solid player for us and possibly turn into a nice trade chip down the line/possible long-term MI for us.

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16 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Villar is not going to be part of the next contending Oriole team, and therefore, what we hope is to see him perform better than his averages so the Orioles can flip him later.  That's about it.

He’s under control through 2021. 2021 is too far out for this rebuild?  Damn. 

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4 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Im pleased with what Ive seen so far...but in my view theres ultimately no way the Orioles got a better player in that package than Schoop. I saw Jonathan in LA when they played the Dodgers. He asked me why the Dodgers would trade him for (among others)an infielder that is older than he is, and I didn't have a great answer.I told him that I thought it was a money thing. He just shrugged.

I love Schoop, but I think that's the Orioles fan in you if I'm being honest.

He never walked, he was clearly not likely to stick at 2B long-term and we don't know how he'd work at 3B or SS (likely not a very good SS). Our rebuild window likely takes 3-5 years, in which Schoop defintely would be on the downswing. Villar has shown he can be a better defensive 2B than Schoop and has much more of a OBP mentality with speed. We need more of that. This organization has mostly went away from that and more so vaulted to guys with Schoop's characteristics (low walks, big power). 

 

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45 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Through 6 ish seasons -

Schoop has been worth 11 WAR

Villar has been worth 7.

Seems straight forward to me.   And I still have absolutely no qualms with the Schoop trade for the future of our franchise.   Schoop is going to be somewhat expensive soon while we are going nowhere.  Plus we got two non-zero prospects.

Villar was a top prospect for the Astros and never took off there/got a big opportunity to be an everyday guy. Went to Milwaukee and had a great season, followed by an injury riddled season and then got put in the doghouse this year and battled injuries/didn't perform up to his 2016 level.

Considering Villar has a whole year of control ahead of Schoop and didn't get handed a starting gig and never got moved around/didn't play everyday ala Villar, not sure that's a fair comparison.

I prefer Schoop to Villar, but it's not drastic, and if he can stay healthy and be somewhat close to 2016 form I'd take Villar easy. Plus he's cheaper, another year of control, and better defensively/profiles to be able to stick there much longer than Schoop.

When you add in the fact that Villar was the 3rd piece from the trade and we were more so dealing Schoop to get Ortiz and Carmona, that just makes it an easy win for me. If Villar falls off a cliff then this trade becomes more murky/dependent on the prospects, but right now it looks like we got a guy that could bring similar value to Schoop while adding two legit upside pieces. No brainer to me, especially considering we weren't keeping Schoop and he was an FA after next year.

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21 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

Well, the thing about Villar is he actually has proven to be a quality player at the major league level, while having one outstanding season. Beckham was a top prospect that never really amounted to much more than a decent utility guy for the most part for the Rays.

As I said, I don't expect Villar to be 2016 Villar, but he doesn't need to be to be a very rock solid player for us and possibly turn into a nice trade chip down the line/possible long-term MI for us.

Beckham actually has a higher lifetime OPS+ than Villar.  It'll be interesting to see how both finish this season.  I'm feeling good about both of them right now, but the proof will be in the pudding.  They're both at that age where they're just barely young enough to continue as part of a rebuild, but the club has to make a decision on both of them.   

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