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Greg Pappas

An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

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For those that like this kind of thing, I just updated the OP with a few research/analytics articles regarding the draft. 

BTW, If you'd like me to add something to the OP, shoot me a message or post it here. Thanks.

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Currently, the consensus is there is not a pitcher anywhere close to being considered at 1/1. For me, I like Hinds (3B - FL. HS), Abrams (SS - GA. HS), Rutschman (C - OSU) and Witt (SS - OK. HS). And in that order at the moment.

Hinds would be my guy if I was picking today. He does serious damage with the bat, and his infield actions and arm are legit at 3B. Not much swing and miss for a guy with his power. 

Abrams is a close #2. He is really growing on me in his overall game, athleticism and savvy. His hands and transfer are about as good as I have ever seen a HS SS. Abrams' hit tool is great, and seems to barrel most everything. Not significant power at the moment, but the rest of his game is outstanding.

Rutschman is just a savvy disciplined developing power hitter and above average receiver, and seems to shine in the big moments. I like him a lot, but he is a distant #3 for me. I have concerns about wear and tear on a catcher and his best value being with the bat like Wieters.

Witt is very toolsy, but not as polished. There is a ton of video out there and some that I just watched has his staying back, not lunging. But there is a lot of swing/miss there.

Riley Greene is another stud, and I will see him many times before the draft as he is just a few minutes away. He is a joy to watch hit the ball. The other tools are not up with the others I listed, though he is solid across the board.

Some other kids to keep in mind that I know personally are Hylan Hall (OF-Florida commit) and Joseph Charles (RHP-UNC commit). Not for 1/1, but perhaps the picks beyond that. Hall is a physical freak and the ball jumps off the bat. Charles can touch 97 easy and has some feel for spinning the ball. Maturity for both can be an issue, but both kids are excellent talents.

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57 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Currently, the consensus is there is not a pitcher anywhere close to being considered at 1/1. For me, I like Hinds (3B - FL. HS), Abrams (SS - GA. HS), Rutschman (C - OSU) and Witt (SS - OK. HS). And in that order at the moment.

Hinds would be my guy if I was picking today. He does serious damage with the bat, and his infield actions and arm are legit at 3B. Not much swing and miss for a guy with his power. 

Abrams is a close #2. He is really growing on me in his overall game, athleticism and savvy. His hands and transfer are about as good as I have ever seen a HS SS. Abrams' hit tool is great, and seems to barrel most everything. Not significant power at the moment, but the rest of his game is outstanding.

Rutschman is just a savvy disciplined developing power hitter and above average receiver, and seems to shine in the big moments. I like him a lot, but he is a distant #3 for me. I have concerns about wear and tear on a catcher and his best value being with the bat like Wieters.

Witt is very toolsy, but not as polished. There is a ton of video out there and some that I just watched has his staying back, not lunging. But there is a lot of swing/miss there.

Riley Greene is another stud, and I will see him many times before the draft as he is just a few minutes away. He is a joy to watch hit the ball. The other tools are not up with the others I listed, though he is solid across the board.

Some other kids to keep in mind that I know personally are Hylan Hall (OF-Florida commit) and Joseph Charles (RHP-UNC commit). Not for 1/1, but perhaps the picks beyond that. Hall is a physical freak and the ball jumps off the bat. Charles can touch 97 easy and has some feel for spinning the ball. Maturity for both can be an issue, but both kids are excellent talents.

Awesome, please keep us posted!  So does he look to least have the range to stick in the OF, or do you foresee him possibly moving to 1B?

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11 minutes ago, joelala said:

Awesome, please keep us posted!  So does he look to least have the range to stick in the OF, or do you foresee him possibly moving to 1B?

Yeah, probably not a CF. Certainly solid routes, range and arm. Smooth athlete, not a quick twitch guy. Not a big arm either. But that swing is just poetry.

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4 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Yeah, probably not a CF. Certainly solid routes, range and arm. Smooth athlete, not a quick twitch guy. Not a big arm either. But that swing is just poetry.

Indeed it is.  I'm hoping he has a huge year and puts himself in top 3 consideration for us.

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Very disappointing to agree with Jammer's assessment on lack of quality pitching options at 1/1.  Particularly no consensus college SP from a top program at this time.  Of course, lots happens between now and the draft and, frankly, I've never seriously analyzed prospects this far before a draft.  

I like the consensus of write-ups for the three top HS bats at this time - Greene, Hinds and Abrams.  I generally prefer the "pure" bat descriptions that I have seen with Greene.   IMO, drafting a HSer would show the commitment to a proper and long-term rebuild.

All things equal, I would prefer a pitcher.

Last thought is that without a consensus, elite talent at 1/1, we should be able to spend well below the draft slot and have big $ for other picks in the first 10 rounds.  

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21 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Very disappointing to agree with Jammer's assessment on lack of quality pitching options at 1/1.  Particularly no consensus college SP from a top program at this time.  Of course, lots happens between now and the draft and, frankly, I've never seriously analyzed prospects this far before a draft.  

I like the consensus of write-ups for the three top HS bats at this time - Greene, Hinds and Abrams.  I generally prefer the "pure" bat descriptions that I have seen with Greene.   IMO, drafting a HSer would show the commitment to a proper and long-term rebuild.

All things equal, I would prefer a pitcher.

Last thought is that without a consensus, elite talent at 1/1, we should be able to spend well below the draft slot and have big $ for other picks in the first 10 rounds.  

I'm the opposite.  I feel like there's even more risk with a top pitcher than there is with a position player.  And while I'm all for drafting the best available player, I do think our system is more flush (relatively speaking) with pitching than it is with impact hitters, especially middle infielders.  So the fact that the top 3 or 4 guys are middle infielders is, to me, serendipitous.  Of course a lot can AND WILL change, but I'm not upset with the lack of a top pitching prospect right now.  I'd have to think someone will emerge as that elite pitching prospect you want though.

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Of course it turns out that in the year where we may have the #1 pick (and almost definitely a top 2 pick at this point) that there is very little top end talent in the draft. Then again, that draft is still almost a year away. And frankly, we'll probably be picking really high again in the 2020 draft.

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56 minutes ago, HokieOs said:

Of course it turns out that in the year where we may have the #1 pick (and almost definitely a top 2 pick at this point) that there is very little top end talent in the draft. Then again, that draft is still almost a year away. And frankly, we'll probably be picking really high again in the 2020 draft.

I mean it looks to me like there is some nice, top end talent to be had potentially. Maybe not a Bryce Harper type “can’t miss, generational” prospect, but how often do those come around? 

And as you said, still wayyy early. Lots can happen. Stay tuned. 

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6 minutes ago, joelala said:

I mean it looks to me like there is some nice, top end talent to be had potentially. Maybe not a Bryce Harper type “can’t miss, generational” prospect, but how often do those come around? 

Four times in a draft?

Chris Sale: 42.7 rWAR

Andrelton Simmons 33.4 rWAR in 886 games

Manny Machado: 31.6 rWAR in 881 games.

Bryce Harper: 28.5 rWAR in 881 games.

Also, Christian Yellich at 22.1 rWAR

Jacob deGrom 24.8 rWAR

Kevin Kiermeier 22.3 rWAR

OK, Harper was the most obvious major league star in that draft, but it’s not like his performance has been head and shoulders over everyone else.     

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Four times in a draft?

Chris Sale: 42.7 rWAR

Andrelton Simmons 33.4 rWAR in 886 games

Manny Machado: 31.6 rWAR in 881 games.

Bryce Harper: 28.5 rWAR in 881 games.

Also, Christian Yellich at 22.1 rWAR

Jacob deGrom 24.8 rWAR

Kevin Kiermeier 22.3 rWAR

OK, Harper was the most obvious major league star in that draft, but it’s not like his performance has been head and shoulders over everyone else.     

Wow, I had no idea how valuable Simmons was, and for some reason always thought he was an international signing. 

But yea, I was referring to their pre-draft profiles.  I don't remember because I wasn't following the draft very closely back then, but I'm pretty sure Harper had the highest profile by far and was considered to be the only 'can't miss' guy, even though I find that term to be ridiculous for prospects.

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22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

The O's did pretty well with that pick.

And I'm not sure what you mean by karmically?  What does karma have to do with anything?

 

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