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Who will get a better contract this winter, Markakis or Jones?

Who will get a better contract this winter, Markakis or Jones?  

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  1. 1. Who will get the better contract this winter?



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On 8/21/2018 at 6:43 AM, Frobby said:

I’d say McCutchen will do better than either Jones or Markakis.   

I think McCutchen might get a surprising, nice little contract. Nothing crazy, but I think he might get more than most are expecting.

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2 hours ago, Papeete said:

Taking Nick is a true reason why Stat people don't know anything about the game. 

It's not who might get a hit, it's about who is more likely to tie the game with one swing of the bat and AJ hits more HRs than NIck.

That’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read.    You have to balance the two things — likelihood of winning the game with one swing of the bat (advantage Adam), vs. likelihood of not losing the game by making an out (advantage Nick).    I’m not clever enough to do all the math, but in his career Adam has hit a home run about 3% of the time in the 7-9th inning, whereas Nick has done it 1.8% of the time.  So that’s a 1.2% better chance of Adam winning the game on one swing.   But according to those numbers, Adam has about a 7.5% better chance of making an out.    Is that a good tradeoff?   Sure doesn’t sound like it to me.

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2 hours ago, Papeete said:

Taking Nick is a true reason why Stat people don't know anything about the game. 

It's not who might get a hit, it's about who is more likely to tie the game with one swing of the bat and AJ hits more HRs than NIck.

In the Ninth inning, with two runners on base, both Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have ONE Career Homerun.  Nicks was a walk off, Adams was not.  Nicks was this year, Adams was in 2014

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when accomplished
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People on here just dislike our guys. I remember all you guys saying Markakis wouldn't get much on the open market and then how Travis Snyder would be better than him.  Now you guys are saying nonsense about Jones.  Adam will get paid and have long deal.

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5 minutes ago, Papeete said:

Anyone who knows baseball, knows that you want your best hitter at the plate that can deliver a win in the 9th inning when trailing.

Analytics is just like computer programming, you determine the criteria that will deliver your desired output . . . its far from objective. Anyone who understands baseball or any competitive situation, wants the person at the plate that can win the game with one swing. Both of them can create an out or base hit, but its a fact (not stats) that AJ has hit more HRs than NIck, therefore its a higher probability that AJ will hit a HR than Nick at any given time. 

You selected the 9th inning for your stats to deliver your desired results. I selected all data. Which one has the most credit-ability!

I like when batters don't make outs.

Fail to make enough outs in a row and you score.

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6 hours ago, Papeete said:

Taking Nick is a true reason why Stat people don't know anything about the game. 

It's not who might get a hit, it's about who is more likely to tie the game with one swing of the bat and AJ hits more HRs than NIck.

 

1 hour ago, Papeete said:

Anyone who knows baseball, knows that you want your best hitter at the plate that can deliver a win in the 9th inning when trailing.

Analytics is just like computer programming, you determine the criteria that will deliver your desired output . . . its far from objective. Anyone who understands baseball or any competitive situation, wants the person at the plate that can win the game with one swing. Both of them can create an out or base hit, but its a fact (not stats) that AJ has hit more HRs than NIck, therefore its a higher probability that AJ will hit a HR than Nick at any given time. 

You selected the 9th inning for your stats to deliver your desired results. I selected all data. Which one has the most credit-ability!

Sounds like "anyone who knows baseball" would pick, in this late inning situation, 2018 Chris Davis and his 168/243/296 but with 16 HR (1 every 32 plate appearances!) over 2004 Ichiro and his 372/414/445 but only 8 HR (1 every 95 plate appearances). It's all about who is more likely to tie with one swing of the bat and Davis is like 3 times as likely as Ichiro. Is that what you're saying? 

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5 hours ago, atomic said:

People on here just dislike our guys. I remember all you guys saying Markakis wouldn't get much on the open market and then how Travis Snyder would be better than him.  Now you guys are saying nonsense about Jones.  Adam will get paid and have long deal.

I continue to say that Adam will get 2 yrs and 18-20m.  I don't think it is here and as much as I like him I hope it is not here at that price.  Happy to be wrong.  I'll leave it at I hope he is happy.

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18 hours ago, Papeete said:

Although I am sticking to the subject of this thread (AJ and Nick),  but, I would prefer to see Davis over Ichiro trailing in the 9th. 

That is absolute insanity, and a perfect example of why your argument is so flawed. If you think anybody who knows baseball would make the same choice, you don't know baseball.

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4 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

That is absolute insanity, and a perfect example of why your argument is so flawed. If you think anybody who knows baseball would make the same choice, you don't know baseball.

What if there are two outs and you have the pitcher coming up next and the opposing pitcher is right handed can't throw harder than 91?

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On 8/20/2018 at 7:36 PM, Moose Milligan said:

I understand why you guys would think Jones goes to SD but if we've learned one thing about him this year, he wants to be close to this area for his wife, kids, charity.  SD makes sense for Jones cause he grew up there but if he doesn't wanna get traded out of Baltimore for those reasons he mentioned earlier this year, I don't see him going to a west coast team.

Man...I like Adam and I want to see him do well, but as sincere as Adam's commitment to those things might be...that was more about control than anything else.  Plain and simple.

He was upset about the reality that the Orioles weren't going to bring him back.  He in turn didn't want to help the franchise; whether that be cutting salary for the rest of the season or the benefit of getting a fringe prospect in return.  And he was entitled to that as a 10/5 guy. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he goes to San Diego.  He's basically going to go to whatever franchise he feels is going to offer him the best opportunity to get ABs, make an impact as a veteran presence.  Maybe Philadelphia, Milwaukee?  I wish him the best.   

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On 10/27/2018 at 1:25 AM, Papeete said:

Nick will stay where he is if they want him, because no other team will want a non-power-hitter in RF. Regarding Analytics, nick played for a team that did not go downhill, and Nick never improved . . . Free Agent/Walk Year  Stats don't equate a big or long-term contract.

AJ playing on a team in which everyone produced low production, but his stats are not bad compared to the other Oriole players.  

AJ will get a better contract because he offers more versatility (a CF can play all OF positions; Nick can only play RF), more offense (HR, RBIs; Nick can hit but no speed). Nick's skills are generic. You are down by 2 runs and you have 2 men on base, who would you prefer at the plate in the 9th, AJ or Nick?

That's easy...Nick.  Better plate discipline, smarter approach at the plate.  Better chance he'll keep the inning alive opposed to Adam.  (I like both of them too). 

On 10/27/2018 at 1:25 AM, Papeete said:

 

 

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