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Canson80

Will the Orioles win 45 games

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Even thought they were lousy WITH players like Manny, Schoop, and Gausman..I feel this team, then and now... underachieved...that is, they played below their capabilities all year. Thats really hard to do and worthy of scrutiny.... 

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3 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Even thought they were lousy WITH players like Manny, Schoop, and Gausman..I feel this team, then and now... underachieved...that is, they played below their capabilities all year. Thats really hard to do and worthy of scrutiny.... 

When you only win 28.5% of your games through 130, then there is no way you are doing anything other than underachieving.  I don't care what your roster looks like.  We were at what, a .289 clip for the entire season before Manny and anyone else got traded?  Now on pace for 46-116!  That is pathetic and no team should ever be that bad.  Expansion teams have been way better than this. 

Buck brought us out of the dark ages and for that I am grateful.  But the record shows he is under .500 as manager of the Orioles over the last 8 years, and regardless of how much of that damage can solely be attributed to the last 12 calendar months, he has been the captain of this sinking ship.  I hope he goes back to TV starting in October and enjoys the rest of his life, but I don't want to see him or any coaches currently associated with this team back next year in any kind of capacity. 

 

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3 hours ago, JR Oriole said:

When you only win 28.5% of your games through 130, then there is no way you are doing anything other than underachieving.  I don't care what your roster looks like.  We were at what, a .289 clip for the entire season before Manny and anyone else got traded?  Now on pace for 46-116!  That is pathetic and no team should ever be that bad.  Expansion teams have been way better than this. 

 Buck brought us out of the dark ages and for that I am grateful.  But the record shows he is under .500 as manager of the Orioles over the last 8 years, and regardless of how much of that damage can solely be attributed to the last 12 calendar months, he has been the captain of this sinking ship.  I hope he goes back to TV starting in October and enjoys the rest of his life, but I don't want to see him or any coaches currently associated with this team back next year in any kind of capacity. 

  

Exactly.  And that is why I think Buck and DD should be let go at the end of the season.  Everyone responsible for this mess should be gone.  This isn't' finishing with 66 wins and being in last place.  Teams that were trying to have bad seasons going in have won 50 games this season.   Pathetic.  DD and Buck should be embarrassed. 

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I thought, for some reason, they could take at least one against the Yanks this weekend, maybe 2.  Instead, it's been a pasting.  

I think they wind up with 45 or 46 wins but I wouldn't be surprised with lower.  I'd be pretty surprised with 48 wins or more.

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32% Win % in close games this year, worst in the league. We won 54% last year, 56% in 2016, 55% in 2014, and 69% (!!!!) in 2012. We are basically the bizarro version of 2012.

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4 hours ago, JR Oriole said:

When you only win 28.5% of your games through 130, then there is no way you are doing anything other than underachieving.  

The general consensus I see in discussion is that a decent Triple-A team moved into the major leagues would be expected to win between 45 to 52 games, depending on the strength of the team... so...

yeah, there's that.

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The O's winning percentage last September was .259. Play the whole season with a .259 winning percentage and you end up with 42 wins.  The people in charge of the team largely considered that month an outlier. Instead, it was a sign of the new normal. 

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I thought, for some reason, they could take at least one against the Yanks this weekend, maybe 2.  Instead, it's been a pasting.  

I think they wind up with 45 or 46 wins but I wouldn't be surprised with lower.  I'd be pretty surprised with 48 wins or more.

On paper, we should've beaten Sonny Gray in a match-up vs. Cashner.  A closer look at the numbers shows Gray has used the O's to boost his record this season
Overall 10-8, ERA 5.05
vs BAL 4-1, ERA 3.67
vs. others 6-7, ERA 5.47

Cashner
Overall 4-12, ERA 4.79
vs NYY 1-2, ERA 4.26
vs. others 3-10, ERA 4.89

As to the OP, the last 32 games of 2017 the Orioles were 10-22.  That brings them to 47-115 over the last 162,  placing them a little closer to the 2003 Tigers (43-119) than the 1988 Orioles (54-107).  To get to 45 wins, it would require an 8-24 (.250) mark which the O's failed to post in June or August (to date).   Nine is the high water mark for wins in a month (May and July).

There are 6 games left vs. Toronto, who have nothing to play for, and yet have taken 12 of 13 vs Baltimore so far.   Collectively, of the last 32 games, 14 are against 4 playoff bound teams.  The last 10 games of the year are NY, BOS, and HOU.  Boston has won 14 of 16 vs. the O's and will want to put a lock on the division in the last week.  NY and HOU both have OAK looming large in their rear view mirrors. As it stands right now, they won't be resting for the playoffs when they meet Baltimore next month.  Speaking of Oakland, they'll be in Baltimore for a 3 game set in a couple weeks. 

8 more wins?  It appears that would be the most to reasonably ask for this year.

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