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Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record?

Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record?   

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  1. 1. Which year will the O's next finish with a winning record?


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  • Poll closed on 10/1/2018 at 03:59

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What we don't know makes a prediction harder, as we don't know who our GM will be at this point, nor to what degree we'll be able to land top International talents.  However, with our knowledge of the big league team and Luke's update, we all should have a pretty good idea of who our prospects are. So, taking your best guess at it, what year will we next finish as a winning club?

After voting in the poll, please reply below about why you voted the way you did. Thanks.

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Just a guess for 2022.  Huge changes are yet to come.  Is it Duquette?  Somebody new?  New owner?  I have less confidence in DD than many here, so it could be that it goes south and the next GM will have to sift through the rubble. 

But if it is DD or anyone else, I still think 3years more losing is not unreasonable and 5 years in a row of losing. 

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7 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Just a guess for 2022.  Huge changes are yet to come.  Is it Duquette?  Somebody new?  New owner?  I have less confidence in DD than many here, so it could be that it goes south and the next GM will have to sift through the rubble. 

But if it is DD or anyone else, I still think 3years more losing is not unreasonable and 5 years in a row of losing. 

Ditto

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I think we won't be a playoff team in 2022, but should be around that 82-85 win area by that point. It's a "winning" club, but not quite ready for prime time. [I feel an SNL or Deion Sanders gif incoming.] 😉

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Buck on rebuilding.  Is this also a subtle jab at Dan's three-year plan?
 

Quote

“Especially in today’s baseball world. Whenever I hear somebody talk about an X-number of years plan, it throws up a red flag for me. Usually, it’s somebody who’s kind of trying to stretch out their window of opportunity, so to speak. I remember when I took over the Yankees, I had a one-year contract and they asked me what kind of plan we were on. I said, ‘We’re on a day-to-day, one-year, see how good we can get today and see how good we can get the next day and see if we can get closer to the end goal.’ And the end goal is always to be the last team standing.

Roch - http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/08/roster-expansion-and-showalter-expanding-on-rebuild.html

Quote

“To me, it’s you have a daily plan, a one-year plan. I don’t put a lot of emphasis on a two-year plan, but a three-year plan you can really lean and look and try to project what kind of contribution you can get from your players. There’s a lot of data that helps you do that more accurately and we are in the process of doing that.”


Schmuck - http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-duquette-coy-about-other-possible-deals-20180725-story.html

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Depends  do they reallign the leagues anytime soon.  The Yankees and Red Sox can spend at will on major league talent and international market scouting.  The Rays have lots young talent so probally will be better then us ateleast for few years.  

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At the end of tonight’s telecast I heard this piece of information regarding bad teams in the wildcard era:

The 1998 Marlins finished 52 games back and didn’t have a winning record until 6 years later.

The 1998 Devil Rays finishes 51 games back and didn’t have a winning record until 10 years later.

Although I hope the O’s arrive sooner than later, these historical precedents don’t paint a rosy picture. I’m hoping for the best, but keeping my expectations in check, particularly given the young major league talent, minor league talent, and spending money  (to varying degrees) of the divisional opponents.

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1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

At the end of tonight’s telecast I heard this piece of information regarding bad teams in the wildcard era:

The 1998 Marlins finished 52 games back and didn’t have a winning record until 6 years later.

The 1998 Devil Rays finishes 51 games back and didn’t have a winning record until 10 years later.

Although I hope the O’s arrive sooner than later, these historical precedents don’t paint a rosy picture. I’m hoping for the best, but keeping my expectations in check, particularly given the young major league talent, minor league talent, and spending money  (to varying degrees) of the divisional opponents.

I just fact-checked Vasgersian's numbers.  He was correct about TB; 10 years later they had a winning record and lost the Series to the Phillies.  For the Marlins it took 5 years, not 6.  In fact, the '03 Marlins won the Series.

The O's are 52.5 GB, but will finish much worse than that.  Best case scenario, repeating the Marlins, would mean 2023 for the next winning season.

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The hardest part about trying to predict this with our roster is the fact that very few of our current players will still be around when this actually happens. Really, on the position player side of things- Mullins and MAYBE Mancini will be here and contributors when the Orioles are .500 or competeing. We are beginning a rebuild but are not putting our “rebuild players” to use until next year or later so it’s tough to really project it out.

 

in my own head or instance- if Mullins continues his development, Hays/Diaz/Sisco/Mountcastle all come up and show signs of contribution next year 2019, I could see a .500 team as early as 2020. 

If those guys don’t come up next year, or struggle to get going, and the likes of Ortiz/Tate/Kremer/Akin struggle as well then it could be 2023 or later with an entirely different group.

Im going to stay optimistic and say .500 in 2020 and competing in 2021

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>2024...

The MLB roster has talent deficits all over the place, so it isn't like they are starting from a position where they 'only' need a few SPs, or a SS and a couple of OFs to be competitive.  The SP is bad, the IF is bad, the OF is bad, the pen is bad, the defense is bad.  I don't believe that there are any true impact position players on the immediate horizon and there is no cavalry of arms waiting in the wings.  There are some guys that project as nice additions to an established group, but they aren't going carry a roster.  

The schedule is still unbalanced - the Red Sox and Yankees have young to youngish cores that aren't going anywhere and the Blue Jays and Rays have better farms. The overall organizational mindset is antiquated and getting up to speed with most of the rest of the baseball word isn't going to happen any time soon.  The record of drafting and player development isn't exactly stellar and there is no real infrastructure in place to start making an impact internationally.  The MASN thing isn't going to end well.

 

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10 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

I just fact-checked Vasgersian's numbers.  He was correct about TB; 10 years later they had a winning record and lost the Series to the Phillies.  For the Marlins it took 5 years, not 6.  In fact, the '03 Marlins won the Series.

The O's are 52.5 GB, but will finish much worse than that.  Best case scenario, repeating the Marlins, would mean 2023 for the next winning season.

13 times, since 1990, a team has gone from last place to first place team.

https://www.mlb.com/news/from-worst-to-first-13-improbable-turnarounds/c-212138822

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