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Greg Pappas

2019+ Positional Review Series: Starters

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In this thread series, I’m seeking to review our organization. It’s my hope that we can generate a lot of discussion about where we stand currently, and what the future may hold-- position-by-position.  Regarding minor leaguers, I’d like to keep the focus on players that are our better prospects, as well as those that have a reasonable chance to contribute at the major league level for years to come.  If I miss a player that you feel should be featured, please note it. Thanks. Lastly, I'll list each 'position' below and add links as they're completed.

2019+ Positional Review Series: Catcher
2019+ Positional Review Series: 1B/DH
2019+ Positional Review Series: 2B
2019+ Positional Review Series: SS
2019+ Positional Review Series: 3B
2019+ Positional Review Series: Outfielders / Nice write-ups from @Legend_Of_Joey 
2019+ Positional Review Series: Starters
2019+ Positional Review Series: Relievers / @Thato'sfan created this 

Let's get started on the Starters.

MLB:

Minors (along with a few ‘shuttle-between-AAA-and-the-Majors’ guys):


I’d like to thank @Legend_Of_Joey  and @Luke-OH for their help. The names of the pitchers that I believe are our best starter prospects are highlighted orange, along with double asterisks (for those that may be color blind.)

For several reasons, this was far and away the most difficult position to cover, as my level of understanding on our pitchers is quite limited. So, I’m going to list the starters per level and note by double asterisks and orange text which starters I feel are our top prospects, but otherwise I’ll let Hangouters sort out who the legit starter prospects are and who may be relievers in disguise.

Overall, I'm of the opinion that we won’t have enough quality starting pitching to have a complete five man starting staff in the next few years. DL Hall is our #1 starter prospect, but he’s probably 3-4 years away. If someone like Luis Ortiz, Keegan Akin, Dillon Tate, Hunter Harvey, Dean Kremer, Zac Lowther, Cody Sedlock, or Blaine Knight, really surprises and develops into a true #1, that would be a game changer. Other than that, I think we may have a shot at seeing three solid starters, a couple of below average ones, and the typical flame-outs/injuries/became-a-reliever types-- by 2021.

What does the future hold?  The crystal baseball is pretty cloudy.

What are your thoughts?

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Short term we will need to add at least one veteran starter this offseason to eat some innings. 

I would let the other “suspects” battle it out for one spot in the spring. If they deal Cashner and/or Cobb during the year and they have to bring another kid up so be it. I don’t see any the higher prospects ready at the start of next year. Jobs should not be handed out. 

Hopefully at least 1-2 guys are pushing to be added mid 2019 amongst Ortiz, Akin, Tate and Kramer. 

The odds of anyone being a true number 1 are always a long shot but you have to like what Hall has done so far. GRod is so far away. Loether’s Numbers are impressive   

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I agree with @eddie83, we'll need another Cashner type to eat innings next year.  Hopefully by the ASB next year some of these prospects will start to separate themselves and make cases as legit #1 or #2 starters.  

Ortiz, Tate, Akin are the ones to keep an eye on that could be in Baltimore next year, IMO.  I am not sure why Dean Kremer isn't getting more hype, either.  Looks like he's produced everywhere he's been, save one stint in advanced A ball.  Strikes out at least one per inning with a good K/BB ratio.  

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Yeah, I suspect both Cobb and Cashner will be gone by the end of next season, and perhaps Bundy as well. Spots will be readily available for those ready to take them.

One pitcher that could come back and surprise us is Cody Sedlock.  Now he may wind up a reliever, but it's hard to say.  Regardless, I still like his potential.  

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14 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Don't understand why Hunter Harvey is still on any list having to do with pitching in the majors

I personally haven't expected anything from him for two years, BUT he is still trying to get healthy and still is considered a quality prospect. Therefore...

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Given our history- I understand the negative outlook of our system and minor league pitchers.

But I think you’re selling it a little short saying that the outlook is “cloudy.”

Hall, Kremer, Akin, Tate, Ortiz, Lowther, Baumann,  Rodriguez is a lot of talent with most of them in the higher levels of the system. You’ve also got a few extremely talented wildcards in Harvey and Sedlock. I understand that most of these guys will not pan out, but this is a solid collection of depth.

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2 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Given our history- I understand the negative outlook of our system and minor league pitchers.

But I think you’re selling it a little short saying that the outlook is “cloudy.”

Hall, Kremer, Akin, Tate, Ortiz, Lowther, Baumann,  Rodriguez is a lot of talent with most of them in the higher levels of the system. You’ve also got a few extremely talented wildcards in Harvey and Sedlock. I understand that most of these guys will not pan out, but this is a solid collection of depth.

Out of the ten pitchers you listed, the odds are that (probably... best guess) three or four of them work out and become starters for us.  Out of those pitchers, I'm going to say two become solid starters, and the other one or two are either below average or become relievers, or any number of other possibilities.  So if we get two nice starters out of ten, that's probably the normal expectation.  I'd say our future at the starter position is unclear... hard to gauge how these guys will work out... thus, cloudy.  You may be right, however, that I am underestimating them as a group.  Perhaps they will forge a stronger collective than I suspect.  I hope you're right.  Time will tell... it always does.

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I agree that it’s completely unknown and of course we’ve had waves of talented pitchers come through the system over the past 10 years that have not had great results. 

I guess then it would just need to be defined as to what is “successful” in terms of converting MILB success into MLB success. I think that of that group (adding in Blaine Knight) , if were able to solidify 2-3 spots in our rotation that is pretty good. I have no data to back if 2-3 guys out of a group of 10 is “good” - just my thought. Of course this discussion is about our starting pitching, but if we get 2-3 solid starters and 2-3 Solid relievers that’s even more of a win. There’s obviously the chance that all of these guys flame out and we’re trying to figure out why another wave of “cavalry” is not in Baltimore 

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On 9/2/2018 at 11:41 PM, Greg Pappas said:

Out of the ten pitchers you listed, the odds are that (probably... best guess) three or four of them work out and become starters for us.  Out of those pitchers, I'm going to say two become solid starters, and the other one or two are either below average or become relievers, or any number of other possibilities.  So if we get two nice starters out of ten, that's probably the normal expectation. 

This is probably right, if this team’s history over the last 20 years is any guide.    Put it this way, there’s not a guy in our system who’s as highly regarded as Bundy or Gausman were.     One day a starting pitcher will come along who meets and exceeds our expectations while still wearing our uniform, but until it actually happens, I’m not holding my breath.  

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