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JohnD

With theeee-uh first pick the Baltimore Orioles select....?

With theeee-uh first pick the Baltimore Orioles select....?  

46 members have voted

  1. 1. Pick 1, 1 will be, and why?

    • HS SS Bobby Witt Jr
      24
    • Oregon St C Adley Rutschman
      22


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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Dale Murphy

He didn't get to 46.5 WAR as a catcher so not sure how he could be included

If this kid is such an athlete that he can go on to be a ML CF'er than by all means draft him

 

So, I did a micro-study of catchers selected in the top 5 picks.  There are really five you could classify as studs — Joe Mauer (55.1 rWAR), Dale Murphy 46.5), Thurman Munson (46.1), Buster Posey (41.2) and Darrell Porter (40.9).    From there, there’s a precipitous drop down to Matt Wieters (18.0) and Mike Lieberthal (15.3).   The only others over 5 WAR are Mike Ivie (7.3) and Mike Zunino (6.9).    

Overall,  9% of all top 5 picks have been worth 40+ WAR, compared to 20% of top 5 catchers.   37% of all top 5 picks have been worth 10+ WAR, compared to only 28% of catchers.   23% of top 5 picks never made the majors, compared to 24% of catchers.     

 

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I included Murphy because he was drafted as a catcher and started his major league career there.    Obviously that’s not where he spent the vast majority of his career.   

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20 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Last MLB child we drafted, hasn't fared so well. :):):)

The strategy is working well for Toronto though.  Two of their top prospects are the sons of Vlad and Dante Bichette.    Wanna say there might be one more Im missing.  But they target the kids of ex big leaguers believing there are intangibles that will set them apart.  

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40 minutes ago, JohnD said:

The strategy is working well for Toronto though.  Two of their top prospects are the sons of Vlad and Dante Bichette.    Wanna say there might be one more Im missing.  But they target the kids of ex big leaguers believing there are intangibles that will set them apart.  

Their talents are pretty tangible.

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Here is the Fangraphs prospect duo explaining why they have Witt Jr where he's ranked (at 18:30 in), also they discuss the Mesa brothers (53:54).

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdongenhagen-project-ep-3/

 

The TL:DL is that Witt while extremely athletic, plus runner, possibly plus glove at SS, plus power might not hit. They saw him repeatedly swinging through low 90s right down the pipe which is concerning. 

 

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1 hour ago, JohnD said:

The strategy is working well for Toronto though.  Two of their top prospects are the sons of Vlad and Dante Bichette.    Wanna say there might be one more Im missing.  But they target the kids of ex big leaguers believing there are intangibles that will set them apart.  

Thats just one of the reasons, I was bullish on Harvey, was his genes and Daddy teaching him about baseball.

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Their talents are pretty tangible.

Right, and you can say the same about lots of other players.  But they feel the lineage also provides an extra advantage on top of the tangible skills already there.

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Just now, JohnD said:

Right, and you can say the same about lots of other players.  But they feel the lineage also provides an extra advantage on top of the tangible skills already there.

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-lineup-dotted-with-big-league-sons/c-268967594

Quote

The Blue Jays did not intentionally set out to target the sons of former big leaguers, it just happened to work out that way. Smith was selected out of high school by Toronto way back in 2011. Guerrero signed as an international free agent early in '16, and Bichette joined the organization later that year as a second-round Draft pick. Clemens and Biggio arrived last June.

 

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