Jump to content
Thato'sfan

Fall and Winter Leagues

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good, I hope to see him in Center at OPACY some time next season.

My sense is that sometime in 2020 is more realistic.   But maybe next September if all goes well.

Also, I’m hoping Mullins does well enough in CF next year that we’re not worrying about getting McKenna up to the majors to take his place or move him over.   Mullins’ arm is weak but I think he’s capable of catching more balls than he did in his first exposure to the majors.     We’ll find out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Frobby said:

My sense is that sometime in 2020 is more realistic.   But maybe next September if all goes well.

Also, I’m hoping Mullins does well enough in CF next year that we’re not worrying about getting McKenna up to the majors to take his place or move him over.   Mullins’ arm is weak but I think he’s capable of catching more balls than he did in his first exposure to the majors.     We’ll find out.

I was thinking September.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Ryan McKenna has been added to the roster and will be going to the AFL.

That makes me significantly more interested in this year’s AFL.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

McKenna kind of sucked at Bowie. Like all of you I hope he looks better in Arizona and gets off to a good start in Bowie next spring. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

McKenna kind of sucked at Bowie. Like all of you I hope he looks better in Arizona and gets off to a good start in Bowie next spring. 

I mean if you think a league average batting line at 21 in AA sucks, then sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I mean if you think a league average batting line at 21 in AA sucks, then sure.

A .679 OPS at Bowie does kind of suck. His .239 BA and .338 slugging percentage did suck. His .341 OBP put his performance in the kind of sucks and not just sucks category. Sucking is not age adjusted. Sucking summarizes absolute performance. It is not age adjusted and is not, hopefully in this case, predictive. But it can succinctly describe the past if used appropriately. McKenna's performance kind of sucked at Bowie. You can try to look at it through an age adjusted prism if you want, but he hit poorly at Bowie.  Still got on base, but he didn't hit well. I am looking forward to seeing him hit this fall or next spring. I am not predicting otherwise. 

 

By the way, Ryan Mountcastle is four days older than McKenna.  21 is young for the league, but certainly not atypical for a very good prospect. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ohfan67 said:

A .679 OPS at Bowie does kind of suck. His .239 BA and .338 slugging percentage did suck. His .341 OBP put his performance in the kind of sucks and not just sucks category. Sucking is not age adjusted. Sucking summarizes absolute performance. It is not age adjusted and is not, hopefully in this case, predictive. But it can succinctly describe the past if used appropriately. McKenna's performance kind of sucked at Bowie. You can try to look at it through an age adjusted prism if you want, but he hit poorly at Bowie.  Still got on base, but he didn't hit well. I am looking forward to seeing him hit this fall or next spring. I am not predicting otherwise. 

 

By the way, Ryan Mountcastle is four days older than McKenna.  21 is young for the league, but certainly not atypical for a very good prospect. 

Yes it is.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes it is.

 

No it is not. If you are projecting players, sure take it into account. If you are describing what happened then the results are the results. We don’t know if his poor hitting was due to age, talent, minor injury, or if his A ball hit streak was just a hot streak, etc. I was excited by Luke’s evaluations and McKenna's phenomenal performance at Frederick. I think he’s talented and is going to hit better and I clearly stated that I hoped to see better results soon. But we have all watched enough prospects to know that is not a certainty. And 21 in AA is not really young. This is not Manny at Bowie when he was 19 (and of course Manny hit better than McKenna even at 19). If you plug McKenna’s numbers and his age into a projection system his age is not going to discount his performance very much. His OBP will drive the results far more, but his performance to date overall is what it is. McKenna’s OPS by level are .689, .629, .712, 1.023, and .679. One of these is not like the others. McKenna was a little young at each level, but not for good prospects. There comes a time when performance is performance. I hope he performs well this fall and next year. I’m not hating on McKenna, but he did not hit well at Bowie. His hitting at Bowie kind of sucked. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

No it is not. If you are projecting players, sure take it into account. If you are describing what happened then the results are the results. We don’t know if his poor hitting was due to age, talent, minor injury, or if his A ball hit streak was just a hot streak, etc. I was excited by Luke’s evaluations and his phenomenal performance at Frederick. I think he’s talented and is going to hit better and I clearly stated that I hoped to see better results soon. But we have all watched enough prospects to know that is not a certainty. And 21 in AA is not really young. This is not Manny at Bowie when he was 19 (and of course Manny hit better than McKenna even at 19). If you plug McKenna’s numbers and his age into a projection system his age is not going to discount his performance very much. His OBP will drive the results far more, but his performance to date overall is what it is. McKenna’s OPS by level are .689, .629, .712, 1.023, and .679. One of these is not like the others. McKenna was a little young at each level, but not for good prospects. There comes a time when performance is performance. I hope he performs well this fall and next year. I’m not hating on McKenna, but he did not hit well at Bowie. His hitting at Bowie kind of sucked. 

I didn't say 21 at AA was really young.

But you most certainly do have to adjust numbers for age.  Numbers that look good for a 21 year old might "suck" for a 24 year old.  Numbers that "suck" for a 22 year old might be fine for a 19 year old.

Age matters, it matters a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't say 21 at AA was really young.

But you most certainly do have to adjust numbers for age.  Numbers that look good for a 21 year old might "suck" for a 24 year old.  Numbers that "suck" for a 22 year old might be fine for a 19 year old.

Age matters, it matters a lot.

Of course age matters when you are projecting players. Of course the closer the prospects get to the average age of other prospects at each level, the less age means to the player's projection. And of course once you are older than average it starts to negatively impact a player's projection. So age only matters a lot if the age difference is relatively large. That's not really the case here. In McKenna's case, he has only slugged higher than .380 at one level. He has been a .250ish hitter outside of two months in Frederick. His on base percentage has been good to excellent at most of the levels, so that is a big plus. I think in most projection systems it is often the most important counting stat for predicting future success. But he has not hit very well outside of a few months in Frederick. Yes, he was a little young at Bowie and his promotion was an aggressive move. I think his relative inexperience at higher levels was potentially more important than his biological age as 21 is not really young for AA (as I noted above, Mountcastle is less than a week older than McKenna). But his hitting track record makes me nervous. His hitting kind of sucked at Bowie. And I hope to see some results sooner than later because his hitting kind of sucked at most levels. The promotion to Bowie was the only promotion that is really "early" and even that was not a stretch and was earned with a phenomenol, outlier performance at Frederick. It's the outlier part that worries me. So when I talk about his hitting kind of sucking at Bowie, I mean it was what it was, no age adjustment. It kind of sucked. And unfortunately was on par with the rest of his minor league career except for his 67 games at Frederick. Sure, age is important when you are projecting players, but if you have a player that was a mediocre hitter at 4 out of 5 levels and is not really young for a good prospect at said levels, then at some point the results start to mean a lot. I trust Luke and other talent evaluators (professional and amateur) and his Frederick performance was very special. But as a fan, not an amateur player evaluator, I would like to see some more results because his hitting has been largely mediocre. It seems like McKenna's defense will get him to the majors even if he's a relatively weak hitter at the major league level, but of course we are all hoping for more. 

 

p.s. Again, not ragging on McKenna. I have my fingers crossed. His promotion to Bowie was pretty aggressive. I hope he responds at the plate as well as Mountcastle responded in his first full season at Bowie after a very aggressive promotion at age 20. 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/5/2018 at 5:33 PM, Ohfan67 said:

No it is not. If you are projecting players, sure take it into account. If you are describing what happened then the results are the results. We don’t know if his poor hitting was due to age, talent, minor injury, or if his A ball hit streak was just a hot streak, etc. I was excited by Luke’s evaluations and McKenna's phenomenal performance at Frederick. I think he’s talented and is going to hit better and I clearly stated that I hoped to see better results soon. But we have all watched enough prospects to know that is not a certainty. And 21 in AA is not really young. This is not Manny at Bowie when he was 19 (and of course Manny hit better than McKenna even at 19). If you plug McKenna’s numbers and his age into a projection system his age is not going to discount his performance very much. His OBP will drive the results far more, but his performance to date overall is what it is. McKenna’s OPS by level are .689, .629, .712, 1.023, and .679. One of these is not like the others. McKenna was a little young at each level, but not for good prospects. There comes a time when performance is performance. I hope he performs well this fall and next year. I’m not hating on McKenna, but he did not hit well at Bowie. His hitting at Bowie kind of sucked. 

If we are going to compare all minor leaguers to Manny, 99% of them are going to “suck”. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, higgybaby said:

If we are going to compare all minor leaguers to Manny, 99% of them are going to “suck”. 

I didn’t compare his performance to Manny’s. That was an aside. I do hope that McKenna hits like a decent offensive prospect this fall and in 2019. That would be fun. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will there be a list (or does anyone know where we can find a list) of Orioles players and prospects that will be playing fall and winter baseball?  The Dominican, Venezuela, and Australia all have winter leagues, along with the Arizona Fall League (already reported).

For what it's worth:

Arizona Fall League

Tanner Chleborad

Tyler Erwin

Jay Flaa

Chris Lee

Martin Cervenka

Ryan McKenna

Steve Wilkerson

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







×
×
  • Create New...