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Tony-OH

2018 Orioles Top Prospect List

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3 hours ago, Ripken said:

Roughly, where do we rank compared to the other 29 teams?

The lack of a top 50 prospect  hurts. So it depends on how much emphasis you put on elite prospects. I will say the O’s system is as deep with major league pieces as almost any team (the Rays and Padres are the exceptions). Right now it just looks like mostly average regulars, back of a rotation arms, and relief pieces. You just hope a few find their ceilings and add impact.

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7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The lack of a top 50 prospect  hurts. So it depends on how much emphasis you put on elite prospects. I will say the O’s system is as deep with major league pieces as almost any team (the Rays and Padres are the exceptions). Right now it just looks like mostly average regulars, back of a rotation arms, and relief pieces. You just hope a few find their ceilings and add impact.

You would hope they can add four top 50s over the next two years. Between number one picks and internationals. The Orioles should have top international monies the next two seasons as well. 

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1 hour ago, weams said:

You would hope they can add four top 50s over the next two years. Between number one picks and internationals. The Orioles should have top international monies the next two seasons as well. 

If DL Hall continues on the progression he showed this year, he’ll be a top 50 guy this time next year for sure. Grayson has similar potential. 

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17 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

If DL Hall continues on the progression he showed this year, he’ll be a top 50 guy this time next year for sure. Grayson has similar potential. 

I don't know how he can't already be a top 50 prospect already, but I don't follow other systems. I just think it's gotta be hard pressed to find 50 better prospects in baseball than Hall.

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25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know how he can't already be a top 50 prospect already, but I don't follow other systems. I just think it's gotta be hard pressed to find 50 better prospects in baseball than Hall.

I know BA is very reluctant to put any pitching prospect in their top 50 until they are higher up in the minors.   BA’s JJ Cooper said as much here:  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/10/a-look-at-organizational-rankings-and-other-notes.html

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On 11/5/2018 at 11:57 AM, Tony-OH said:

It's that time of year once again where we give you an in-depth view of the Orioles system. We will be doing our top 30 once again, but this year we will give you a new grading system so you can quickly see where the player is currently in development, where they will most likely end up, and their ceiling if everything breaks for them. This will help you determine the closeness of the player to the big leagues as well as the toolsy guys with bigger ceilings but who are farther away.

We developed this list after doing our own scouting, analyzing statistics,  and after analyzing comments from players development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization. As with last year, I worked in collaboration with Luke Siler to develop the list. Our official list listed here is the collaborative result of our analysis. 

New Grading System:
Grade    Hitters                  Starters                  Relievers
80          HOFer                   HOFer #1    
75          Top 1-2                Top 1-2 #1    
70          Top 5                    Top 5 #1     
65          All-Star                 All-Star #1-#2    
60          Plus                      #2-#3                      Elite Closer All-Star
55          Above AVG          #3-#4                      Mid-Closer
50          AVG Regular       #4-#5                      Low-Closer/Elite Setup
45         Platoon/Utilty      #5-Swingman        Setup
40         Bench                   Up/Down                Middle/Long relief
35         Up/Down              Emergency            Up/Down
30         Org (AA/AAA)      Org (AA/AAA)       Org (AA/AAA)
25         Org (AA)               Org (AA)                 Org (AA)
20         Org (A Ball )         Org (A Ball)            Org (A Ball)

We will release the list 6-10 (Tue 11/6), then 1-5 (Thur 11/8), 10-15 (Tue 11/13), 16-20 (Thur 11/15), 21-30 Tue (11/20). 
11/19)

Rank Name Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade
1 DL Hall – LHP 25 60 65
2 Grayson Rodriguez – RHP 20 60 60
3 Ryan Mountcastle – 3B 40 55 60
4 Dean Kremer- RHP 45 55 60
5 Yusniel Diaz – OF  40 55 60
6 Austin Hays – OF 40 50 55
7 Hunter Harvey – RHP 35 50 60
8 Zac Lowther – LHP 35 50 55
9 Blaine Knight – RHP 25 50 55
10 Brenan Hanifee – RHP 25 50 55
11 Keegan Akin – LHP 40 50 50
12 Luis Ortiz – RHP 40 45 50
13 Ryan McKenna – OF 35 45 50
14 Branden Kline – RHP 40 45 55
15 Drew Rom – LHP 20 45 55
16 Zach Pop 40 45 50
17 Dillon Tate 40 45 50
18 Rylan Bannon 35 45 50
19 Adam Hall 20 45 50
20 Michael Baumann 25 45 50
21 Alex Wells 25 45 50
22 Jean Carlos Encarnacion 20 45 55
23 Cadyn Grenier 20 45 50
24 DJ Stewart 45 45 45
25 Jean Carmona 20 45 50
26 Cody Carroll 40 40 45
27 Brett Cumberland 30 40 45
28 John Means 40 40 45
29 Cameron Bishop 20 40 45
30 Matthias Dietz 20 40 50

2017 Top Prospect List

I'm really intrigued by Kline - nice to see him make your top 15!

Looking over his stat history... looks like a potential future closer if he can stay healthy. Or at least a nice option for the back of the rotation. I'm looking forward to seeing so many of our youngsters... But Kline's a sleeper from what I can tell. 

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@Tony-OH and @Luke-OH

Just out of curiosity, where would you rank the players that played that season that lost their "prospect" status or might not appear on the list?

Mullins, Wynns, Sisco, Fry, Hess, Wilkerson, Nunez, Rameriez (Jefri), Arajuo, Santander, Mesinger, ect?

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4 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

@Tony-OH and @Luke-OH

Just out of curiosity, where would you rank the players that played that season that lost their "prospect" status or might not appear on the list?

Mullins, Wynns, Sisco, Fry, Hess, Wilkerson, Nunez, Rameriez (Jefri), Arajuo, Santander, Mesinger, ect?

Just my take, using the same present grade/future grade. So you can kind of fit them in. Just because players lose their prospect eligibility doesn’t mean they are finished products. 

Mullins 45/50

Tanner Scott 40/50 (you could argue Scott performed like a 45 looking at his fielding independent numbers, but he really did have a consistency issue so that’s why I have a 40 present grade)

Sisco 35/45 (I have downgraded him after he showed a newfound inability to handle velocity on the inner 1/3, an easy to exploit hole, but I think something may have been up, the way he was handled was weird, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he bounced back to be a solid 50 or 55, I wouldn’t trade him for Nunez because of this ceiling)

Nunez 45/45 (was a 40, showed enough with the glove that he can hold it down as a starter on a non-contender)

Paul Fry 40/40

Austin Wynns 40/40

Santander 30/45 (45 might be a bit rich, his development really got screwed by getting picked in the Rule 5 but he still has the tools for a platoon or 2nd division starter if he hasn’t been totally messed up).

Yefry Ramirez,  Hess, and Yacabonis 35/40 (40 as a reliever, I don’t think any of them are ever more than and up and down as a starter. Hess has a better ceiling as a medium leverage type while Yefry has a better chance of staying in the majors as a middle relief type, I’d rank Yefry slightly higher than the other two, then Hess, then Yaca)

Wilkerson 35/40

Meisinger 35/35

Araujo 35/35

 

 

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, now said:

@Tony-OH, I'm wondering, how many solid major leaguers we can expect from the top ten... based on your experience from past years' top tens? 

That's tough to say because each list can be different. Also, what is your definition of solid? We have five players with Current most likely grades of 55 or higher. I would say that's more than in the past and was helped out by the Machado trade that netted Kremer and Diaz. Kremer could be the guy who ends making the quickest impact at the major level among the top 10. It would not surprise me if he is pitching in the rotation by mid-season next year.

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14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's tough to say because each list can be different. Also, what is your definition of solid? We have five players with Current most likely grades of 55 or higher. I would say that's more than in the past and was helped out by the Machado trade that netted Kremer and Diaz. Kremer could be the guy who ends making the quickest impact at the major level among the top 10. It would not surprise me if he is pitching in the rotation by mid-season next year.

Okay, that's a helpful (and hopeful) perspective, thanks! Also, agree on Kremer...

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4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

That's tough to say because each list can be different. Also, what is your definition of solid? We have five players with Current most likely grades of 55 or higher. I would say that's more than in the past and was helped out by the Machado trade that netted Kremer and Diaz. Kremer could be the guy who ends making the quickest impact at the major level among the top 10. It would not surprise me if he is pitching in the rotation by mid-season next year.

This seems painfully true. If I remember correctly, there were many top ten lists during the bad ole days that never produced a good player. 

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1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

This seems painfully true. If I remember correctly, there were many top ten lists during the bad ole days that never produced a good player. 

I think our deepest list preceded the 2009 season.   I don’t recall the whole list, but the top 4 were Wieters, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta.    Britton I think was somewhere in the top 10.   Down in the teens or low 20’s were guys like Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken.     Reimold was somewhere.   I’d love to dig that list up if Tony has it stored away somewhere.  

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think our deepest list preceded the 2009 season.   I don’t recall the whole list, but the top 4 were Wieters, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta.    Britton I think was somewhere in the top 10.   Down in the teens or low 20’s were guys like Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken.     Reimold was somewhere.   I’d love to dig that list up if Tony has it stored away somewhere.  

I was thinking of lists older than that. Pre Wieters draft, for sure. 

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I can’t find the OH list from that year, but of the top 20 on minorleagueball.com, 18 played in the majors.    In addition to the 9 named above, there were Joseph, Patton, and journeymen Snyder,  Mickolio, R. Adams, Avery, Hoes, Beato and Montanez.

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