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How long does your blank check for Elias last?

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On 11/18/2018 at 7:23 AM, Frobby said:

I don’t think he really gets a blank check at all.    I want to see signs of progress in year one, in terms of filling key positions and seeing some changes in the way things are run.    And I expect that to continue throughout.    But in terms of seeing a winning team on the field, I don’t expect it until year four at the earliest.    I do believe that improvement in the record is likely this year, even if it’s only to 55 games or so, but that’s not how I’ll judge this season.    

I’d love to see some signs that analytics are being used to help existing players and that some of them are responding.    Not necessarily all of them.   This applies in the majors and the minors.

I’d love to see us hiring aggressively in Latin America and making at least a few early signings on July 2.    

And I’d like to see signs that the organization is on the same page, that people are buying in.    And I’d like to see some regular communication to the fans of what the plan is and how it’s being achieved.

I’ve been thinking about this some more.    There are bits and pieces of data that come in here and there now, but I think the first time I’ll be taking a really hard look at what Elias has accomplished is at the end of the 2020 season.    By then, he will have had more than ample time to evaluate the players in our system, he will have had two drafts and we’ll have had a full season of data on his first draft class, he’ll have had two July 2 signing periods, he’ll have had one “regular” offseason in which to make hires,  he’ll have had a good bit of time to implement development systems he wants, and he’ll have had an offseason in which he had more payroll flexibility with the looming departures of Trumbo and Cashner.   So, while I definitely don’t expect to see a winning team in 2020, or anything remotely close to it, I think there will be a lot of other measures on which to judge how Elias is doing, as compared to now.    

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On 11/18/2018 at 7:23 AM, Frobby said:

I don’t think he really gets a blank check at all.    I want to see signs of progress in year one, in terms of filling key positions and seeing some changes in the way things are run.    And I expect that to continue throughout.    But in terms of seeing a winning team on the field, I don’t expect it until year four at the earliest.    I do believe that improvement in the record is likely this year, even if it’s only to 55 games or so, but that’s not how I’ll judge this season.    

I’d love to see some signs that analytics are being used to help existing players and that some of them are responding.    Not necessarily all of them.   This applies in the majors and the minors.

I’d love to see us hiring aggressively in Latin America and making at least a few early signings on July 2.    

And I’d like to see signs that the organization is on the same page, that people are buying in.    And I’d like to see some regular communication to the fans of what the plan is and how it’s being achieved.

I’m violating Tony’s “don’t bump old threads” rule because it’s interesting to go back and see how patient our posters said they would be in 2018 when Elias took the job.   My sense is that many of the natives are beginning to get restless.    

Right now Elias is just about on pace with where I thought he’d be by now, though the short major league season and non-existent minor league season last year makes things a little harder to judge.    

I do think that Elias will need to switch gears after this season.   I’m not expecting a contender in 2022 but I do think the team will need to show very significant improvement to indicate that the rebuild has traction.    Of course, I’m hoping to see improvement this year, but my guess is our winning percentage will be stagnant from last year, maybe even slightly down (we were on a 67.5 win pace, but fading badly in the last 25-30 games).    

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I looked to see my previous thoughts, but I didn't post in this thread.

To me, he has no time limit. He's 100% capable of doing everything that needs to be done. He will operate under the constraints placed upon him by ownership.

I genuinely believe he'll put us in the best position possible under those constraints because he seems to draft and develop well and he's developed the international market. Time will tell how those feathers in his cap mature into the organization, but even if he never signs a good free agent, it looks like he can build a sustainably good franchise.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m violating Tony’s “don’t bump old threads” rule because it’s interesting to go back and see how patient our posters said they would be in 2018 when Elias took the job.   My sense is that many of the natives are beginning to get restless.    

Right now Elias is just about on pace with where I thought he’d be by now, though the short major league season and non-existent minor league season last year makes things a little harder to judge.    

I do think that Elias will need to switch gears after this season.   I’m not expecting a contender in 2022 but I do think the team will need to show very significant improvement to indicate that the rebuild has traction.    Of course, I’m hoping to see improvement this year, but my guess is our winning percentage will be stagnant from last year, maybe even slightly down (we were on a 67.5 win pace, but fading badly in the last 25-30 games).    

I think most of the restlessness is due to some of the often unprecedented signs of extreme penny pinching.  Whether that comes from ownership or Elias, it certainly begs the question if whether they will spend when it is appropriate for a contender.   (As far as I can tell the ONLY encouraging sign spending wise is that they are setting new team highs in the international market).

But rumors that uniform coach decisions are being made for cost cutting reasons, furloughs, asking arbitration players to take deferred money - all are concerning.  Obviously the pandemic is part of it but we don't hear about the other 29 teams doing some of these things other than the furloughs.

 

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I'm more concerned about Elias wanting to walk out of the door so he can be the next Friedman than I am of kicking him out the door myself.

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56 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I think most of the restlessness is due to some of the often unprecedented signs of extreme penny pinching.  Whether that comes from ownership or Elias, it certainly begs the question if whether they will spend when it is appropriate for a contender.   (As far as I can tell the ONLY encouraging sign spending wise is that they are setting new team highs in the international market).

But rumors that uniform coach decisions are being made for cost cutting reasons, furloughs, asking arbitration players to take deferred money - all are concerning.  Obviously the pandemic is part of it but we don't hear about the other 29 teams doing some of these things other than the furloughs.

 

Which is a much more important use of dollars for the team RIGHT NOW than any stop gap free agent would be

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7 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Which is a much more important use of dollars for the team RIGHT NOW than any stop gap free agent would be

Obviously.  Didn't talk about stopgap free agents at all in my post.

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3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Obviously.  Didn't talk about stopgap free agents at all in my post.

Didn't say you did. Just pointing out that if it's the "ONLY encouraging sign spending wise," it's also the only place we should really be yearning to see an increase in spending at this point in the process. When this started (between 2018 and 2019), we knew it was going to be a long-term tear-down and rebuild. They've spent on infrastructure and international amateurs, which is exactly what the Elias roadmap said before the 2019 season.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I'm more concerned about Elias wanting to walk out of the door so he can be the next Friedman than I am of kicking him out the door myself.

Judging by what we have seen so far why would a team be eager to promote him?

So far he's upped the technology, slashed payroll and collected high draft picks. 

I haven't seen anything so far that makes me think I have to have this guy as my team president.

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On 11/17/2018 at 7:26 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Two years.  

A lot of us said things back in 2018, not knowing a global pandemic would throw a monkey wrench into things.

Overall, I'm happy with what he's done.  The system is better than it was when he took over.  There's a focus on getting good international talent in the system.  There's a focus on advanced metrics and analytics.  

The product at the ML level still sucks but at least there's some hope on the horizon.  I'm fine with what he's done so far and I think it'll pay off in the coming years.  

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2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'm more concerned about Elias wanting to walk out of the door so he can be the next Friedman than I am of kicking him out the door myself.

Bingo.

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My concern is if he’s being allowed to do what he wants or if the budget is holding him back. If he really is in control and this is his plan so be it. But, he/they must understand that revenues will start increase when the interest level of the average fan increases. Obviously playing 162 games will help.

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I’m guessing there will be a restored optimism from actually having a milb season. The draft will be big for Elias this year.
 

It’s looking like we’ll be in a complete tear down at the deadline with Cobb, Galvis, Severino, Mancini, and Santander all moving. 
 

With all that being said, I think you have to give him till 2023. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m guessing there will be a restored optimism from actually having a milb season. The draft will be big for Elias this year.
 

It’s looking like we’ll be in a complete tear down at the deadline with Cobb, Galvis, Severino, Mancini, and Santander all moving. 
 

With all that being said, I think you have to give him till 2023. 

There is no real reason to trade Galvis or Severino if they will no bring back a prospect.  I doubt they will.    I think Elias will have to be blown away with an offer to trade Santander.     Cobb and Mancini will be on the block if they are healthy and productive at the deadline.

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11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Judging by what we have seen so far why would a team be eager to promote him?

So far he's upped the technology, slashed payroll and collected high draft picks. 

I haven't seen anything so far that makes me think I have to have this guy as my team president.

If you believe, like me, that he's created a much stronger amateur player acquisition and development program then you have to like what he's done. I also think the data will put all of our guys, major and minor leagues, into a better position to succeed. 

I'm assuming that given whatever resources he'd want, eventually he'd be spending on free agents and active in the trade market. I'm also assuming that's not in the cards right now, which makes what he's doing on the minor league side even more important. 

I am assuming. I don't know what the facts are. I just think he's the most capable talent evaluator and developer I've seen in Baltimore during my life. His leash is VERY long for me.

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