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FanSince88

How long does your blank check for Elias last?

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7 minutes ago, weams said:

I could not disagree more.

Why not start a prediction calendar on when the first negative thread shows up (not by our Debbie Downers who hate everything)? I'd bet by the end of Spring Training, and I could even see one about the choice of manager.  I like the choice of Elias; I think he'll be great, but we've spent two years in a culture of negativity.

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2 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

Why not start a prediction calendar on when the first negative thread shows up (not by our Debbie Downers who hate everything)? I'd bet by the end of Spring Training, and I could even see one about the choice of manager.  I like the choice of Elias; I think he'll be great, but we've spent two years in a culture of negativity.

Well that I can embrace. And when the losing gets to three years of it, many will bolt the stable. Remember it's been two years already. So after five years of unfathomable losses, there will be few true believers left. 

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10 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

Why not start a prediction calendar on when the first negative thread shows up (not by our Debbie Downers who hate everything)? I'd bet by the end of Spring Training, and I could even see one about the choice of manager.  I like the choice of Elias; I think he'll be great, but we've spent two years in a culture of negativity.

NSFW

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F

On 11/17/2018 at 9:28 PM, Moose Milligan said:

 

 

On 11/17/2018 at 6:42 PM, FanSince88 said:

For me, it's five years.  I'm going to refrain from wondering if he's the right man for the Orioles until the end of 2023.  If by then we still aren't over .500 AND our minor league system isn't better than mediocre AND it's clear that Elias has actually been the one calling the shots, then I will start to be worried that he might not be suited for the GM role in Baltimore.  But by 2023 if he is able to get the team winning again or we aren't winning yet but our minors are elite or the ownership is breaking their promise and keeps meddling in baseball decisions, then I will be fine with Elias continuing in his role indefinitely.  Just hope he isn't poached by another organization before the Orioles start to see success at the majors.  

For me it's 3 years. By then I want to be champing at the bit for some young MiL players to be called up.

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1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

Thanks for the correction, although I would like to see a weighted average of across the board projections of these prospects (assuming the OH rank is not that).  As I'm sure you're aware, there's no way Rodriguez makes the ML roster as a SP until 2022 at the earliest.  Likewise, I'd be very surprised if DL Hall makes the ML roster until late 2020 at the very, very earliest.  That's our top two right there -- still speculative and a long way off.  Mountcastle is a nice hitter and all but a negative in the field by all accounts, unless we most him to first where CD is blocking him.  Will be interesting to see if Kremer or Hays get a cup of coffee at the majors next year -- 2019 will be a make or break year for both of those guys.  There's no way I would consider Hunter Harvey above a 50 at this point, the guy is totally snakebit by injuries even worse than Bundy was which I can't believe I'm saying but it's true.  I'm a bit embarrassed but I've not heard of Lowther/Knight/Hanifee before, will have to check those guys out.  

Regardless, the word on the street seems to be that our minor league system is still in the bottom third even with all DD's midseason aquisitions.  Don't see Elias realistically propelling it to the top ten -- unless a few guys come out of nowhere -- before 2021 at the earliest.  

It certainly won’t happen overnight.   I’ve seen rankings of our system that are near the middle, and others that are near the bottom.    Maybe we could be top 10 in 2020 if a lot of things broke our way, but I tend to agree 2021 is more realistic.   (I am talking about the beginning of the 2021 season, just to be sure we’re on the same page about what 2021 means).   

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On 11/19/2018 at 10:22 AM, weams said:

We were supposed to win in 2014. Manny. Wieters, Davis. They caused the failure. 

Ned Yost's voodoo powers caused the failure.

Markakis, Jones, Cruz, Pearce, and Hardy also should have figured out a way to score more than one run off of Jeremy freakin' Guthrie and Jason freakin' Vargas.

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4 minutes ago, theocean said:

Ned Yost's voodoo powers caused the failure.

Markakis, Jones, Cruz, Pearce, and Hardy also should have figured out a way to score more than one run off of Jeremy freakin' Guthrie and Jason freakin' Vargas.

Yeah what the heck happened in that series man. 

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2 hours ago, Pheasants said:

Why not start a prediction calendar on when the first negative thread shows up (not by our Debbie Downers who hate everything)? I'd bet by the end of Spring Training, and I could even see one about the choice of manager.  I like the choice of Elias; I think he'll be great, but we've spent two years in a culture of negativity.

I doubt the manager decision will get much negativity towards it. I expect a low salary hire as why pay top dollar for someone.  Just need someone who is good at developing players and not so much concern about game time decisions or ability to talk to the press. 

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Just now, interloper said:

Yeah what the heck happened in that series man. 

Everything went KC's way that could happen and nothing ours. Still kills me because that quite honestly was the best Orioles team in my life with maybe the '97 team only better. 

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12 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah what the heck happened in that series man. 

I think people don’t give that Royals team enough credit.   They finished that season 41-23 (.640), then won the WC game, swept the Angels, swept the Orioles and lost a hard fought World Series in 7 games.   Then they turned right around and won 95 games and the World Series the following season.     It was a very good team that was coming into its own the last couple of months of 2014.   Great outfield defense, great bullpen, great team speed.   

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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

BABIP.

Everything that KC hit dropped in, everything Baltimore hit was caught.

That was because KC outfielders were super fast and the Orioles outfielders were all slow. 

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

That was because KC outfielders were super fast and the Orioles outfielders were all slow. 

Our outfield defense was pretty good in 2014 — +17.7 UZR.

The Royals, on the other hand, were unbelievably good — +42.4 UZR.    And they played great in that series.   

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52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Our outfield defense was pretty good in 2014 — +17.7 UZR.

The Royals, on the other hand, were unbelievably good — +42.4 UZR.    And they played great in that series.   

Some of that positive outfield defense UZR  during the year was David Lough who did not play in that series replaced by either De Aza or Cruz in the outfield.  And neither Machado nor Davis played in that series.  

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5 minutes ago, atomic said:

Some of that positive outfield defense UZR  during the year was David Lough who did not play in that series replaced by either De Aza or Cruz in the outfield.  And neither Machado nor Davis played in that series.  

Good point on Lough.   He most often played as a defensive replacement, which is tough to do when you never have the lead (the O’s never lead after the 4th inning or later in that series, and had only one lead at any time).    

Davis and Manny had no impact on the outfield defense, needless to say.    

I was out of town and saw very little of that series, but had the impression it was more a matter of the Royals playing great defense than us playing poor defense.   

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