Jump to content
Tony-OH

Elias Progress Thread

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They are trying to use analytics to salvage their remaining $92 mm investment.    If it doesn’t work, he’ll eventually be cut.   

Lol.  Even if Davis somehow stopped being terrible with the lack of doing anything they would still be worst in league.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Natty said:

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

Trust the process or perish!  😇

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Natty said:

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

SSS, Service Time, Defensive Metrics, etc...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Natty said:

I dont understand Analytics... 

Hays .351/.385/.892/1.277   Cut

Santander .333/.389/.697/1.086   Cut

Mullins .139/.244/.361/.605   Not  Cut
 

 Cut

Is that all the information they have on those players or do they have years of statistics and scouting reports? Because what you’re suggesting is they only remember the last thing that happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Is that all the information they have on those players or do they have years of statistics and scouting reports? Because what you’re suggesting is they only remember the last thing that happened.

They know that Mullins put up these numbers last year with 191 PA...235/.312/.359 and all of baseball knows now to run on his weak arm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 

I asked Mike Elias how much service time hurdles played into the decision to option Austin Hays and Anthony Santander.

"Zero," he said.

"Not at all?"

"No," he said. "It's not even relevant." #Orioles

 
7
 
OK its not service time manipulation, and its not Analytics. What is it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Natty said:

They know that Mullins put up these numbers last year with 191 PA...235/.312/.359 and all of baseball knows now to run on his weak arm. 

Mullins did this in 267 AAA PA, .267/.332/.425 and this in 218 AA PA, .313.362.512

Apples to apples at a level they all played at.

Mullins (218 PA AA) - .875 OPS

Hays (288 PA AA) - .703 OPS

Santander (222 PA AA) - .695 OPS

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Mullins did this in 267 AAA PA, .267/.332/.425 and this in 218 AA PA, .313.362.512

Apples to apples at a level they all played at.

Mullins (218 PA AA) - .875 OPS

Hays (288 PA AA) - .703 OPS

Santander (222 PA AA) - .695 OPS

 

Huge difference compared to Spring Training this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Natty said:

Huge difference compared to Spring Training this year. 

Yeah, so you see how when taking larger chunks of information into consideration, some of these actions make more sense. 

I think Elias is probably pleasantly surprised with how Hays and Santander looked this spring (Hays especially looked like the top 50 prospect in baseball he was in 2017 once again, not just performance, but just the bat to ball skills and the quality of contact he was making). 

It's easy to get emotionally wrapped up in Hays's story and write off 2018 struggles as injury related or related to Buck's instructions to be more patient screwing up his approach. But if you just look at the data, even with a strong spring, it looks like a guy who needs AAA finishing school. Is Hays the best OF in the org right now? Possibly. But does it hurt anything to send him down and evaluate Mullins and Smith Jr against MLB pitching? I don't think it does, and maybe it helps Hays long term. 

  • Upvote 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To that point, it could be that “scouting” is outside of “analytics” and “service time”. Mullins might be deemed a finished product with little room for improvement. He just may be a complete player with a low ceiling. Hays and Santander might need a little bit more time before there’s nothing else they can learn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/18/2019 at 11:26 AM, Natty said:

Huge difference compared to Spring Training this year. 

Yeah, those stats mean a lot more than spring training stats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Yeah, those stats mean a lot more than spring training stats. 

I think you have to put Hays’ stats into context because he was playing hurt.    The year before he posted a .960 OPS in 283 PA in AA, at an age 21 months younger than Mullins was in 2018.     I’d pretty much bet my bottom dollar that Hays will be a better major league hitter than Mullins.    The spring stats reinforce my belief but they aren’t the basis for it.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think you have to put Hays’ stats into context because he was playing hurt.    The year before he posted a .960 OPS in 283 PA in AA, at an age 21 months younger than Mullins was in 2018.     I’d pretty much bet my bottom dollar that Hays will be a better major league hitter than Mullins.    The spring stats reinforce my belief but they aren’t the basis for it.   

I too think Hays will be a better ML hitter than Mullins. I was mainly giving Natty some grief because he’s been pasting spring training stats into threads for several days. But the stats are still not very useful. Hays looked great, but all the caveats about SSS and standard spring training competition issues are still true. Super encouraging, but certainly not predictive. Rickard out hit Hays this spring but I don’t think you put much credence into that. That said, I am disappointed Hays didn’t make the starting roster. I think it’s irrelevant in the long run, but I want to see him play. Baseball is entertainment after all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Baseball is entertainment after all. 

This is where many seem to get lost.  Just like actresses and actors, ballplayers need to make there way into the "STAR ROLE".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 77 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Jim would probably tell you why he walked each one...strategically.   Maybe if they all swung at pitches in 1969 like Sammy Sosa did in 2007, Palmer would have struck out a lot more too.   The game was obviously different.  That in 2097 was Bedard’s only complete game and only shutout...Palmer had 6 shutouts and 11 complete games that year of 1969.   Just different ...and, in my view, of both performers, Jim’s was the better.  A no hitter is a unique pitching performance, I have been going to games for over 50 years and have not seen one.   2 hitters are a dime a dozen and I have seen a bunch, and strikeouts are interesting (though not democratic, as Crash Davis would say) but that doesn’t by itself give Bedard the alltime greatest Oriole pitching performance to me. 
    • So you are discounting SIX walks just because he didn't allow any hits?  Almost twice as many strikeouts?  Maybe if Bedard had the same caliber of defense behind him that Palmer he he wouldn't have allowed any hits?
    • I’m doing a mock on another forum. We were able to trade picks according to value chart and it turned out as follows: 1: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State 2: Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia 3: Cam Dantzler, CB, Miss St 3: Jordyn Brooks, ILB, Texas Tech 3: Shane Lemieux, G, Oregon 4: Lamical Perine, RB, Florida 4: Anfernee Jennings, Edge, Alabama   I think I feel mostly good about this. OL is definitely solidified and we get a young pass rusher with upside, potential fill the MLB spot, and keep the depth in our secondary. Lemieux was a redundant pick, and the one that I’d consider going back on, but I thought it was good value at the end of the third. Still need a WR, and to get some young blood at safety and D line.  
    • Since Ks are  the only measure this guy used to determine “best” pitching performance.  Not the context of the game as to important or not or whether it was against a quality opponent or not.   When Erik Bedard pitched a complete game against the Texas Rangers in 2007 with 15 strikeouts, Palmer's broadcasting partner Gary Thorne asked rhetorically, "Have you ever seen a better pitched game than that?" To which Palmer replied, "Well, I did throw a no-hitter."  
    • Sandy Sarjeant - a legendary British go-go dancer in the mid sixties. She's the middle dancer in Can't Turn You Loose.   In front of Cliff Bennett & the Rebel Rousers:  
    • Joe Diffie just died.  Coronavirus.  We've now reached the stage where people we recognize are falling and it's only been a few weeks since this mess first started to gain traction.  In truth, I was only vaguely aware of Joe Diffie - his music didn't find its way to me rather than the other way around and that's often the test with me.  I read about his passing on CNN.  He had a career that never made it to the top in any sustained way, but it was durable and he had his moments and it was something to be proud of. This is a collaboration with Marty Stuart that won a Grammy in 1998.   Ships That Don't Come In  
    • I suppose it makes sense on the surface. No one will have played HS or collegiate ball, and how likely is it that there'd be a whole bunch of players that teams would want to make such an investment in? Those HS picks, particularly, would be exponentially riskier than in other years. Besides, you can bet MLB would like to cut costs in a year where it'll possibly lose half or so of its revenue.  Yeah, 5 rounds sounds about right. Better than none, that's for darned sure.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...