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Where would Richie Martin fit on the O's top 30?

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15 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I was going to type out an explanation but this article does it more clearly than I would have.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/as-more-mlb-batters-become-launch-angle-disciples-pitchers-are-quietly-adapting/2018/03/27/ecace82c-2dda-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html

TL:DR - hitters who embrace a positive launch angle swing are good at going down and crushing low sinking fastballs and pitchers are adjusting by throwing more high FBs and curveballs.

 

Thanks for saving me some time.

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Based on Luke's analysis, I'm souring on Martin after being basically all in initially. I won't hate if they pick him, but it sounds like maybe there are some smart options at pitcher instead. 

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I was going to type out an explanation but this article does it more clearly than I would have.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/as-more-mlb-batters-become-launch-angle-disciples-pitchers-are-quietly-adapting/2018/03/27/ecace82c-2dda-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html

TL:DR - hitters who embrace a positive launch angle swing are good at going down and crushing low sinking fastballs and pitchers are adjusting by throwing more high FBs and curveballs.

 

Good stuff, thanks!

Any thoughts on Drew Jackson as a possible alternative to Martin? Looks like he may have a little more pop.

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31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good stuff, thanks!

Any thoughts on Drew Jackson as a possible alternative to Martin? Looks like he may have a little more pop.

I think it will be a pitcher, myself. 

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40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good stuff, thanks!

Any thoughts on Drew Jackson as a possible alternative to Martin? Looks like he may have a little more pop.

I really like Jackson, but don't see the O's grabbing him first. Still, I think he's a potentially higher upside option (at least with the stick). He's also 25 which means he should be breaking into the Majors soon anyway and it would make sense to be a bit more aggressive with him.

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33 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I really like Jackson, but don't see the O's grabbing him first. Still, I think he's a potentially higher upside option (at least with the stick). He's also 25 which means he should be breaking into the Majors soon anyway and it would make sense to be a bit more aggressive with him.

I'm surprised Jackson isn't talked about more.  Especially since his name was floated around a lot during the Machado trade rumors.  I think at least, he could be a solid utility player and a possible 3B interim, if Renato doesn't work out.   

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Quote

Riley Ferrell, RHP, Astros

Ferrell had a rocky return this season in his second year back from shoulder surgery, but he has the same swing-and-miss stuff he had when the Astros drafted him in the third round in 2015. What he doesn’t have is the control to know where that stuff is going—he walked nearly six batters per nine innings this season. When they were rebuilding years ago, the Astros had success nabbing Josh Fields in the Rule 5 draft with a similar profile (big stuff, poor control). Now someone could try to do the same thing to the Astros.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-rule-5-draft-preview-v-10/

 

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I believe we will be taking an IF -- Martin, Jackson, or Wong. If we have the opportunity to take two of those guys, I think we will do that. To me, Wong has the best chance to provide positive value next year. You could go Villar at SS and Wong (LH hitter) and Wilkerson (RH) at 2B. It's hard to believe you are going to find a positive WAR everyday player in the Rule 5 draft. I think Wong has the best chance to do that -- especially if he is platooned and rarely faces lefties. 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

I believe we will be taking an IF -- Martin, Jackson, or Wong. If we have the opportunity to take two of those guys, I think we will do that. To me, Wong has the best chance to provide positive value next year. You could go Villar at SS and Wong (LH hitter) and Wilkerson (RH) at 2B. It's hard to believe you are going to find a positive WAR everyday player in the Rule 5 draft. I think Wong has the best chance to do that -- especially if he is platooned and rarely faces lefties. 

 

 

 

I really don't care if he provides positive WAR next year or not. What I do care is if we can pick someone that can stick enough to get us his rights and not be too scared from being rushed to the majors to deliver in the future. I want the guy with the best upside and highest likelihood to be a part of the next good Orioles' team.

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7 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Good stuff, thanks!

Any thoughts on Drew Jackson as a possible alternative to Martin? Looks like he may have a little more pop.

Jackson is on my list, he has a cannon arm. The bat to ball skills are lacking though, he could really struggle to hit at the major league level.

It’s important to remember that all these players have flaws, that’s why they are available.

The best bats (best chance to produce league average or better batting lines) available IMO are John Nogowski, Josh VanMeter, Jamie Westbrook, and Frank Schwindel. Schwindel and Nogowski are 1B. Westbrook is a below average 2B converted to LF, VanMeter is a fringe average defender at 2B who has played 3B, SS, and LF in AAA.

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By the way, I found an article from 2008 that I wrote on using ground ball % and Line drive rate% in evaluating prospects. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20100330000226/http://www.orioleshangout.com:80/ttakeArticle.asp?ID=1646&page=ttake

BTW, I did provide this to an Orioles scout back then who was like, "Huh, interesting" and then he probably never thought about it again. :D

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37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

By the way, I found an article from 2008 that I wrote on using ground ball % and Line drive rate% in evaluating prospects. 

https://web.archive.org/web/20100330000226/http://www.orioleshangout.com:80/ttakeArticle.asp?ID=1646&page=ttake

BTW, I did provide this to an Orioles scout back then who was like, "Huh, interesting" and then he probably never thought about it again. :D

So you don’t have the 2008 top prospect list, but you have this?

It’s very prescient.    Of course, there was probably a reason they started publishing this data.

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36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So you don’t have the 2008 top prospect list, but you have this?

It’s very prescient.    Of course, there was probably a reason they started publishing this data.

Haha, I found that on the wayback machine. I can't find the 2009 top ten yet.

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