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The Goob

Keith Law's 2019 Top 100 Prospects

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Keith Law posted his top 100 prospects for 2019.  It is behind the ESPN+ paywall.

Number 1 -50 http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25851786/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-50-1

Number 51 - 100 http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25852941/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-100-51

He only had one Oriole prospect in the top 100.  DL Hall was #63.  No Mountcastle or Diaz like many other lists but he does agree with Tony and Luke that Hall is the Oriole's clear #1 prospect.

Also of note was that he had Fernando Tatis Jr. as the #1 prospect (who he compared to Machado but stronger at the same age) ahead of Vlad Guerrero Jr.  He based this largely on the fact that he believes Vlad will be a DH which limits his value even with what he describes as an "80 hit tool"

A part of his write up of Hall

"He is a good athlete who should develop more consistency to his delivery with repetition, while he already has the arm strength and feel both to spin the curveball and turn over the changeup that is all very hard to teach. There's some relief risk here just due to his inexperience and the need for him to develop a starter's command and pitching plan, but he has good mid-rotation upside and real value as a left-hander in an industry that still covets them."

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Your avatar kills me.  Every time I see it I'm like, ELIAS IS POSTING HERE?!  I don't know why I'm so easily duped.

Interesting that Mountcastle and Diaz aren't in the top 100 for him, they are for every other list, is that correct?  They aren't top 50 guys but I'd imagine that Mountcastle's hit tool would get him in the 75 range or so.

I know a lot of people are going to say that Law hates the Orioles, but for a team that has struggled to produce from their system, I understand why he might be skeptical.  That said, only having one in the top 100 is a little harsh.

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9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That said, only having one in the top 100 is a little harsh.

He had another 15, or so, on his just missed list. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

He had another 15, or so, on his just missed list. 

 

15 Orioles? That must be a pretty big list!

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Your avatar kills me.  Every time I see it I'm like, ELIAS IS POSTING HERE?!  I don't know why I'm so easily duped.

Interesting that Mountcastle and Diaz aren't in the top 100 for him, they are for every other list, is that correct?  They aren't top 50 guys but I'd imagine that Mountcastle's hit tool would get him in the 75 range or so.

I know a lot of people are going to say that Law hates the Orioles, but for a team that has struggled to produce from their system, I understand why he might be skeptical.  That said, only having one in the top 100 is a little harsh.

Well obviously we have Rodriguez over Mountcastle and Diaz and Kremer over Diaz so I can understand why they aren't top 100 guys for some. Law has some of the same issues I have with Mountcastle overall, and it mostly resolves around defense. Mountcastle has impact level ability with his bat if he can get stronger and learns to drive the ball a bit more to the opposite fields.

I like Diaz, but not as enthralled with him as some. If the Orioles can get a bit more power out of him with some swing adjustments then I'd start liking him more, but I have to see more gametime power before getting too excited. He has solid average tools across the boards but no real plus-plus tool that makes me think he'll end up a star. 

I don't follow all prospects close enough to give an accurate assessment of how many Orioles prospects currently belong in a top 100 overall, but I do know that if I could only have one prospect in the entire system, DL Hall is the guy I'd want currently.

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From his chat today:

Oriole fans
1:02
Your thoughts on Y Diaz. who we acquired from the Dodgers?
 
Keith Law
1:03
Average regular without ceiling. Don't think he stays in center. Probably goes to right, hits for average with 15-18 bombs, solid OBP.

 

Art
1:05
What's your take on Mountcastle? Was he much of a consideration for top 100, and are there concerns other than defense/position?
 
Keith Law
1:06
Where does he play? I know MLB had him on the back of their 100, which I can support, but putting him higher would be absurd. He really has no position and hasn't shown reason to anticipate high OBPs. That said, he can hit, and he's going to get to some power as he fills out.

So he hasn't completed written off either Diaz or Mountcastle.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, backwardsk said:

So Guerrero wouldn't be able to move over to first or OF?

He does not seem to think so.  Compares him to David Ortiz.

"The knock on Baby Vlad is that he's probably a DH in the long run. He's enormous, and though he's a good athlete for his size, he has gotten so big so quickly that it's hard to imagine him at any position, let alone third base, where he isn't quick enough on his feet to play now and brings only a plus arm to the table. If he looks like this at 19, he's not going to be svelte at 23. "

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4 hours ago, The Goob said:

Keith Law posted his top 100 prospects for 2019.  It is behind the ESPN+ paywall.

Number 1 -50 http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25851786/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-50-1

Number 51 - 100 http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25852941/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-100-51

He only had one Oriole prospect in the top 100.  DL Hall was #63.  No Mountcastle or Diaz like many other lists but he does agree with Tony and Luke that Hall is the Oriole's clear #1 prospect.

Also of note was that he had Fernando Tatis Jr. as the #1 prospect (who he compared to Machado but stronger at the same age) ahead of Vlad Guerrero Jr.  He based this largely on the fact that he believes Vlad will be a DH which limits his value even with what he describes as an "80 hit tool"

A part of his write up of Hall

"He is a good athlete who should develop more consistency to his delivery with repetition, while he already has the arm strength and feel both to spin the curveball and turn over the changeup that is all very hard to teach. There's some relief risk here just due to his inexperience and the need for him to develop a starter's command and pitching plan, but he has good mid-rotation upside and real value as a left-hander in an industry that still covets them."

Maybe I'm just traumatized from people comparing Matt Wieters to Joe Mauer, but I've come to dislike it when analysts say that a prospect is a better version of an MVP candidate.  I say this with no disrespect to Tatis, who I am sure will make a fine major leaguer.  But call me when he puts up almost 7 WAR as a 20 year old.  As it is, he was at .852 in AA as a 19 year old.  At 19, Manny would have been on pace for a 5 win season in the big show if he played the full year.

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3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Interesting that Mountcastle and Diaz aren't in the top 100 for him, they are for every other list, is that correct?  They aren't top 50 guys but I'd imagine that Mountcastle's hit tool would get him in the 75 range or so.

BA had Díaz at 37 and BP had him at 44.    Mountcastle was 90 for BA but 51 for BP.

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1 hour ago, The Goob said:

He does not seem to think so.  Compares him to David Ortiz.

"The knock on Baby Vlad is that he's probably a DH in the long run. He's enormous, and though he's a good athlete for his size, he has gotten so big so quickly that it's hard to imagine him at any position, let alone third base, where he isn't quick enough on his feet to play now and brings only a plus arm to the table. If he looks like this at 19, he's not going to be svelte at 23. "

I don't really understand this line of thinking.  Not every big guy is a lumbering unit like Ortiz.  Scott Rolen won gold gloves despite having Brian Urlacher's build.  Pablo Sandoval wasn't a terrible defender, and he was like 270.  3B defense is more about reflexes and arm strength anyway, which being big or small isn't going to affect.

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Just now, Hallas said:

I don't really understand this line of thinking.  Not every big guy is a lumbering unit like Ortiz.  Scott Rolen won gold gloves despite having Brian Urlacher's build.  Pablo Sandoval wasn't a terrible defender, and he was like 270.  3B defense is more about reflexes and arm strength anyway, which being big or small isn't going to affect.

KLaw always says something out there to garner attention.

Would as many people be talking about him if he had Vlad #1?

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

KLaw always says something out there to garner attention.

Would as many people be talking about him if he had Vlad #1?

And he has Vlad Jr. #2 overall, so even KLaw didn't really diss the guy. 

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