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Frobby

Clay Davenport projects Orioles at 62-100

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If the coaching staff does a great job with these guys and can get maximum effort out of them along with having guys play up to their ability I think we could have a surprisingly good competitive team. 

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1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:

If the coaching staff does a great job with these guys and can get maximum effort out of them along with having guys play up to their ability I think we could have a surprisingly good competitive team. 

I doubt it, but 1989 and 2012 taught me that you never know what’ll happen in a baseball season.   

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Keep in mind, these projections are typically + or - 10 wins, so if his is the same that means anywhere from 52 to 72.  That’s a little something for everybody, 52 is awful, 72 is a huge improvement. 😁

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1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:

If the coaching staff does a great job with these guys and can get maximum effort out of them along with having guys play up to their ability I think we could have a surprisingly good competitive team. 

Love the enthusiasm, but there’s almost no way this happens. There’s not a lot of talent on the team and if some players perform well they will be traded. I don’t see a lot ceiling if guys “played up to their ability”.  If Cobb and/or Cashner start the season well, then there’s a great chance they will be traded at the deadline. Bundy and Givens might even be trade bait if they pitch well. 

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That's right the margin of error swings from 52 to 72.  So while Ohfan67 is right that there is almost no chance the O's are a competitive team.  It's only a slight magnitude of power over margin of error to reach a winning season.  And the negative swing...is over 10% more wins than last year.   This is really good news.  If you look really hard.

 

In other news, scientists state that you have a greater chance of being struck by lightning, while having a winning billion dollar lottery ticket in your left back pocket while taking a selfie with Jennifer Aniston, in your own bedroom....than Chris Davis has of being a replacement level player in Baltimore in 2019.

 

So, there IS a chance.  Thats all I need!!!!  Let's roll.

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4 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

If the coaching staff does a great job with these guys and can get maximum effort out of them along with having guys play up to their ability I think we could have a surprisingly good competitive team. 

 

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10 hours ago, Philip said:

How many wins would we get just from all the defenders getting back to zero in terms of DRS and dWAR?

Even Manny wasn’t good at SS as at 3B. Valencia, Beckham, Davis, were beyond awful in the infield, and the OF was the keystone cops.

just improving to zero would be a big boost.

Maybe.  Not sure how to measure it.  But replacement level defense is just that...replacement level.  League average.  How many wins would that have added to last years total?  Not sure.  

Still too early to make a prediction, but I'm gonna do it anyway.  I think this is a 55 win team or so.  I'd be shocked if they get to over 60 wins.

I'm all in on a #1 draft pick for two years in a row.  

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53 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Maybe.  Not sure how to measure it.  But replacement level defense is just that...replacement level.  League average.  How many wins would that have added to last years total?  Not sure.  

Still too early to make a prediction, but I'm gonna do it anyway.  I think this is a 55 win team or so.  I'd be shocked if they get to over 60 wins.

I'm all in on a #1 draft pick for two years in a row.  

Replacement level is well below league average.

 

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42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Replacement level is well below league average.

 

There’s no such thing as replacement level offense or defense.    Just an overall replacement value.    What level of defense gets you replaced depends on what kind of offensive player you are.   

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s no such thing as replacement level offense or defense.    Just an overall replacement value.    What level of defense gets you replaced depends on what kind of offensive player you are.   

There is a standard for what constitutes "replacement level defense" and it is well below the standard that is considered league average.

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13 hours ago, scOtt said:

Face it, we're going suck for another couple years. Might as well get the #1 pick along the way.

Sure, and I get the need for the rebuild and I support it.  Once.  Whether it takes two years or five, at the end I want to see an organization that is built for sustained success, not for chasing "windows".  One that considers the first overall draft pick as public confirmation of abject failure, which is exactly what it is.  That will make the next few years worthwhile to me.

What I don't get is the relish for strategic losing I see from too many posters here (not you) and elsewhere in the sports media.  All of a sudden it's smart!!!  I've read the books and my conclusion is that it's still losing whether or not you have a fashionable rationale that sounds good and makes you appear as if you're in-the-know.  

Here's a test.  If someone's favorite team requires paragraphs of nuanced explanation to justify their support then perhaps it might be wiser if they said nothing at all - at least the the presence of fans of another, better team.  A .600 winning percentage speaks for itself.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is a standard for what constitutes "replacement level defense" and it is well below the standard that is considered league average.

There isn’t.   That’s a misnomer.    Drungo has explained this numerous times.   

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