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MurphDogg

PECOTA projections are out

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To the shock of everyone, the Orioles are expected to be lousy. Their projected record is 57-105. The Tigers have the next lousiest projected record at 67-95.

Here is the team page.

Here is the main page.

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Wow, they’ve got two guys on the entire team surpassing a .700 OPS — Mancini (.731) and Trumbo (.727).     

I think these projections are rational and yet I have to think we’ll have a couple of guys who surpass projections by a considerable amount.   Just don’t ask me which ones.

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Mancini as our most valuable position player.  I agree with Frobby.  Since they have every rookie with negative WARP, someone is going to surpass projections.  Maybe it's time for a poll: Which player gets votes for Rookie of the Year?

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31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's not forget that PECOTA is named after this guy:

4b1921c2c9faf_75577n.jpg

One of the best baseball cards ever.

So maybe they whiff hard on their projections and Mancini rakes at an .850 OPS this summer.

 

No whiff, he checked his swing!

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39 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

Mancini as our most valuable position player.  I agree with Frobby.  Since they have every rookie with negative WARP, someone is going to surpass projections.  Maybe it's time for a poll: Which player gets votes for Rookie of the Year?

On the Orioles? DJ Stewart.

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43 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's not forget that PECOTA is named after this guy:

4b1921c2c9faf_75577n.jpg

One of the best baseball cards ever.

So maybe they whiff hard on their projections and Mancini rakes at an .850 OPS this summer.

 

Brings back nostalgia from my baseball card collecting days!

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Just now, O's84 said:

Brings back nostalgia from my baseball card collecting days!

They couldn't find a better picture for this poor guy?  I remember getting this card in a pack and just laughing my ass off.  

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3 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

On the Orioles? DJ Stewart.

I’m really interested to see how the young outfielders shake out this year.   Mullins, Stewart, Diaz, Hays and McKenna — lots of moving parts there.   For what it’s worth, PECOTA/BP project:

Mullins .688 OPS in 608 PA

Stewart .669 OPS in 443 PA

Hays .670 OPS in 274 PA

Diaz and McKenna not in the majors.

Personally I think the Mullins projection is pretty solid if he plays a lot against LHP.    It will not surprise me if he’s platooned more and ends up with a .700+ OPS in 500ish at bats.

Stewart’s playing time looks reasonable but I think he’ll hover at .700 OPS or maybe slightly above.

I don’t think Hays sees 274 PA this year, especially if he’s posting a .670 OPS.    I think he only gets called up if he’s back to mashing in the minors, and if he does, he might get 100 PA and hopefully exceed .700 OPS.

 

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m really interested to see how the young outfielders shake out this year.   Mullins, Stewart, Diaz, Hays and McKenna — lots of moving parts there.   For what it’s worth, PECOTA/BP project:

Mullins .688 OPS in 608 PA

Stewart .669 OPS in 443 PA

Hays .670 OPS in 274 PA

Diaz and McKenna not in the majors.

Personally I think the Mullins projection is pretty solid if he plays a lot against LHP.    It will not surprise me if he’s platooned more and ends up with a .700+ OPS in 500ish at bats.

Stewart’s playing time looks reasonable but I think he’ll hover at .700 OPS or maybe slightly above.

I don’t think Hays sees 274 PA this year, especially if he’s posting a .670 OPS.    I think he only gets called up if he’s back to mashing in the minors, and if he does, he might get 100 PA and hopefully exceed .700 OPS.

 

Stewart has more pop, I think he's above .700 too.  

I would think that Diaz sees some time in Baltimore, though.  

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1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I'm surprised to see the Mets projected for 89 wins.  And 82 for the Cubs. 

Why? I'm not sure it will work, but they kinda went all in this off season. Traded for Cano, Diaz and Broxton, signed Lowrie and Ramos, resigned Familia, etc. The back end of their pitching staff is a little sketchy, but on paper they stack up pretty well to everyone else in the NL East. With the exception of the Marlins I think ever team has a shot at winning the division this year. Should be fun to watch. 

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4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Stewart has more pop, I think he's above .700 too.  

I really tuned out last year so forgive the basic question, but D. J. Stewart looks like he's the new Jim Traber, right?

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1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I'm surprised to see the Mets projected for 89 wins.  And 82 for the Cubs. 

Mets are a pretty good team if the pitching staff stays healthy. DeGromm/Wheeler/Syndergaard with that bullpen is no joke.

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