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PECOTA projections are out

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Rochester is no Norfolk, but Traber hit better during his age 24 AAA season.

I expect park and league adjusted numbers from you.

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16 minutes ago, calebelias said:

D.J. Stewart has had an incredible OBP every step of the way, including a small sample size last year in the majors. I’m not  guessing wether he will succeed or not but a projected .292 OBP ???  I’d be shocked if he was under .330.  Guy has a great eye.

Stewart hit .235 in AAA with a .329 OBP.  He's a career .250 hitter in the minors. Fangraphs lists three different projections and the best of them has Stewart with a .320 OBP.  Eye only goes so far if you're hitting .235 with a .387 slugging, like he did in Norfolk.

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5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Stewart hit .235 in AAA with a .329 OBP.  He's a career .250 hitter in the minors. Fangraphs lists three different projections and the best of them has Stewart with a .320 OBP.  Eye only goes so far if you're hitting .235 with a .387 slugging, like he did in Norfolk.

I expect his numbers to be better in the majors.

Not by a lot mind you.

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20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a whole thread on it.  

 

There's no there, there. It's just another of your vanity threads that you feel compelled to promote. Sorry to say that, I am not try to offend you personally, but you start way too many threads based on little to nothing.

Regardless, there is not a single reply that would in any way reinforce your claim earlier in this thread that it is PROBABLE that Alberto would outhit Martin by "A LOT." Nor is there any statistical measure by which anyone would use the word "probable" to project Alberto's offensive production will be "A LOT" better than Martin's. It's pure guesswork to try to predict which will hit better in MLB in 2019.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I really tuned out last year so forgive the basic question, but D. J. Stewart looks like he's the new Jim Traber, right?

I don’t even know what that means.   I hope Stewart will be better than Traber, though there’s no guarantee that he will be.    But Stewart’s definitely not replacing some current analog to Eddie Murray.   

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3 hours ago, Pheasants said:

Mancini as our most valuable position player.  I agree with Frobby.  Since they have every rookie with negative WARP, someone is going to surpass projections.  Maybe it's time for a poll: Which player gets votes for Rookie of the Year?

There is more to being valuable than projected OPS.  

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16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I expect park and league adjusted numbers from you.

The 1986 Rochester Red Wings and their opponents scored 8.65 runs/game.

The 2018 Norfolk Tides and their opponents scored 8.652174 runs/game.

That's a reasonably similar run context.  

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6 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

There's no there, there. It's just another of your vanity threads that you feel compelled to promote. Sorry to say that, I am not try to offend you personally, but you start way too many threads based on little to nothing.

Regardless, there is not a single reply that would in any way reinforce your claim earlier in this thread that it is PROBABLE that Alberto would outhit Martin by "A LOT." Nor is there any statistical measure by which anyone would use the word "probable" to project Alberto's offensive production will be "A LOT" better than Martin's. It's pure guesswork to try to predict which will hit better in MLB in 2019.

ST will be starting in the next few weeks for position players.  I guess we will see.

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t even know what that means.   I hope Stewart will be better than Traber, though there’s no guarantee that he will be.    But Stewart’s definitely not replacing some current analog to Eddie Murray.   

I'm just saying that Traber was a LF/DH/1B with a similar body and defensive reputation to Stewart who turned out to be a poor major leaguer.  Stewart just OPS'd .716 as a LF/DH/1B in his age 24 season in AAA.  That doesn't give me much confidence that his career will be better than Traber's.  Murray has nothing to do with this.

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm just saying that Traber was a LF/DH/1B with a similar body and defensive reputation to Stewart who turned out to be a poor major leaguer.  Stewart just OPS'd .716 as a LF/DH/1B in his age 24 season in AAA.  That doesn't give me much confidence that his career will be better than Traber's.  Murray has nothing to do with this.

I won’t debate you much, because Stewart has a lot to prove.   But I think he’s a much better defender than Traber, and he’s really an OF, not a 1B.   Ultimately though it’ll come down to whether he hits better than Traber, and we’ll have to see about that.   

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1 hour ago, Beef Supreme said:

There's no there, there. It's just another of your vanity threads that you feel compelled to promote. Sorry to say that, I am not try to offend you personally, but you start way too many threads based on little to nothing.

Regardless, there is not a single reply that would in any way reinforce your claim earlier in this thread that it is PROBABLE that Alberto would outhit Martin by "A LOT." Nor is there any statistical measure by which anyone would use the word "probable" to project Alberto's offensive production will be "A LOT" better than Martin's. It's pure guesswork to try to predict which will hit better in MLB in 2019.

https://www.mlb.com/news/hanser-alberto-quietly-impressing-rangers/c-166829616

third baseman Adrian Beltre said. "He is a great defender and over the past few years, his offense has been incredibly transformed. He has shown in Spring Training that he has a great approach and his swing is fluid."

"He's tremendous, man. His glove is like no other," Gonzalez said.

"You can see the maturity in Alberto," Banister said. "Last year, the playoff situation helped his confidence -- a big hit and also the defensive play. We have known about the defensive prowess, but you see him in the batter's box confident. The things he has been able to do over the winter have really helped.

"He's a shortstop. You see what he can do at shortstop. He could play all four infield positions, but he's a pretty dynamic shortstop."

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I don't think they will lose 100. The good thing about having low expectations is that they will almost certainly exceed them. And even if they lose 100 I guarantee that it will be way more entertaining than watching last year's underachieving bunch.

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/hanser-alberto-quietly-impressing-rangers/c-166829616

third baseman Adrian Beltre said. "He is a great defender and over the past few years, his offense has been incredibly transformed. He has shown in Spring Training that he has a great approach and his swing is fluid."

"He's tremendous, man. His glove is like no other," Gonzalez said.

"You can see the maturity in Alberto," Banister said. "Last year, the playoff situation helped his confidence -- a big hit and also the defensive play. We have known about the defensive prowess, but you see him in the batter's box confident. The things he has been able to do over the winter have really helped.

"He's a shortstop. You see what he can do at shortstop. He could play all four infield positions, but he's a pretty dynamic shortstop."

That's cool. Love Beltre. Nice to hear him saying good things about Alberto. I will be rooting for him and all of the shortstops.

Alberto does not take walks. He has little power. My prediction is that both he and Martin will post MLB numbers that are mediocre at best. Neither can be projected as being expected to have a significantly better offensive season than the other. I, personally, have advocated that the Orioles get shortstops this offseason who can pick it and it looks like they did. I am not as concerned about their offensive production in 2019.

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2 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

That's cool. Love Beltre. Nice to hear him saying good things about Alberto. I will be rooting for him and all of the shortstops.

Alberto does not take walks. He has little power. My prediction is that both he and Martin will post MLB numbers that are mediocre at best. Neither can be projected as being expected to have a significantly better offensive season than the other. I, personally, have advocated that the Orioles get shortstops this offseason who can pick it and it looks like they did. I am not as concerned about their offensive production in 2019.

I will not say you are wrong because you may be right.   However,   Alberto has hit at AAA where he has been since he was 22 because he has been blocked in the Texas organization.  Martin is going to try to jump from AA to starting SS for the Orioles.  I like Alberto's chances better because he is more prepared and is just as good defensively from what I have read.

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/hanser-alberto-quietly-impressing-rangers/c-166829616

third baseman Adrian Beltre said. "He is a great defender and over the past few years, his offense has been incredibly transformed. He has shown in Spring Training that he has a great approach and his swing is fluid."

"He's tremendous, man. His glove is like no other," Gonzalez said.

"You can see the maturity in Alberto," Banister said. "Last year, the playoff situation helped his confidence -- a big hit and also the defensive play. We have known about the defensive prowess, but you see him in the batter's box confident. The things he has been able to do over the winter have really helped.

"He's a shortstop. You see what he can do at shortstop. He could play all four infield positions, but he's a pretty dynamic shortstop."

His defensive metrics in limited playing time match the hype in those quotes.    UZR/150 of 39.6 at SS, 39.4 at 3B, 17.6 at 2B.   Rtot and Rdrs are similarly impressive.  But that .441 OPS....

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