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PECOTA projections are out

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

His defensive metrics in limited playing time match the hype in those quotes.    UZR/150 of 39.6 at SS, 39.4 at 3B, 17.6 at 2B.   Rtot and Rdrs are similarly impressive.  But that .441 OPS....

I am looking at his minor league numbers because there are a lot of them and the major league numbers are limited as you pointed out.  Also the players that he is competing with for the O's SS job also have only minor league numbers.  I am not counting Villar because I think he will play 2B.

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On 2/7/2019 at 6:34 PM, wildcard said:

I will not say you are wrong because you may be right.   However,   Alberto has hit at AAA where he has been since he was 22 because he has been blocked in the Texas organization.  Martin is going to try to jump from AA to starting SS for the Orioles.  I like Alberto's chances better because he is more prepared and is just as good defensively from what I have read.

But was Alberto's PCL "success" a BABIP-based illusion?

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On 2/8/2019 at 6:52 PM, Beef Supreme said:

But was Alberto's PCL "success" a BABIP-based illusion?

It's worse then that.  I was doing some googling and found out that Alberto missed almost all of 2017 because of shoulder surgery.   He played last year but I am wondering whether it affected his arm strength.

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On 2/7/2019 at 6:42 PM, wildcard said:

I am looking at his minor league numbers because there are a lot of them and the major league numbers are limited as you pointed out.  Also the players that he is competing with for the O's SS job also have only minor league numbers.  I am not counting Villar because I think he will play 2B.

I think it is understandable to ignore Alonso's 200 MLB PAs. But 3,000 minor league PAs for an OBA of .316 and a Slugging % of .393 do not bode well for major league success offensively. He could emerge but at 26, he is a little old to hope that will happen.

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It's worse then that.  I was doing some googling has found out that Alberto missed almost all of 2017 because of shoulder surgery.   He played last year but I am wondering whether it affected his arm strength.

Oh jeesh! You don't want a SS with a weak arm.

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This chat is interesting, I followed Alberto with the Rangers, and he was an offensive black hole.The Rangers defense in general was bad enough that you can’t really laud Alberto. The quotes from fellow Rangers could easily be just teammate encouragement and “good press”

The main thing to consider is that Martin and Jackson are rule five picks, and very important pieces of the team, in some capacity( depth, trade throw-in, daily regular) It is highly likely that they will both make the team, unless one of them is just awful in spring training.

It looks like the guys with options will go down and the guys without actions will stay up( makes me sad for Steve Wilkerson. I’m a fan.)

Remember the goal is not necessarily fielding the best players, but building a strong and deep system and organization.

Edited by Philip
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15 minutes ago, Philip said:

This chat is interesting, I followed Alberto with the Rangers, and he was an offensive black hole.The Rangers defense in general was bad enough that you can’t really laud Alberto. The quotes from fellow Rangers could easily be just teammate encouragement and “good press”

The main thing to consider is that Martin and Jackson are rule five picks, and very important pieces of the team, in some capacity( depth, trade throw-in, daily regular) It is highly likely that they will both make the team, unless one of them is just awful in spring training.

It looks like the guys with options will go down and the guys without actions will stay up( makes me sad for Steve Wilkerson. I’m a fan.)

Remember the goal is not necessarily fielding the best players, but building a strong and deep system and organization.

I don't think it is highly likely both make the team.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it is highly likely both make the team.

Given the current circumstances of the team, the need for SS depth in the system, and the lack of meaningful competition, why not?

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

Given the current circumstances of the team, the need for SS depth in the system, and the lack of meaningful competition, why not?

Mainly because these are two players who skills are such that their prior teams didn't bother to protect them. 

We have no inclination that Elias shares the Rule V fetish that Dan and Buck had.

Keeping two players on the 25 man all year limits flexibility, at some point they will probably need one of those roster spots.

How often do teams keep multiple rule V guys?

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it is highly likely both make the team.

 

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Given the current circumstances of the team, the need for SS depth in the system, and the lack of meaningful competition, why not?

They both look like pretty light bats, and similar players.    Having to keep them on the roster all year is a pain and not particularly good for their development if one’s not playing much.    I think it’s highly likely we keep one of them, probably less than 50/50 that we keep both.    But we might.   

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

They both look like pretty light bats, and similar players.    Having to keep them on the roster all year is a pain and not particularly good for their development if one’s not playing much.    I think it’s highly likely we keep one of them, probably less than 50/50 that we keep both.    But we might.   

I agree it is possible, just not highly likely.

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On 2/7/2019 at 11:12 AM, Il BuonO said:

On the Orioles? DJ Stewart.

In their first 17 career MLB games, Stewart actually out OPS’d Mullins by 20 points!  

Just goes to show what perception does. Mullins is the underdog, 13th rd draft pick. Stewart is the former first round bust. Mullins will be the next face of the O’s and CF for the next 6 years. We need to sign a vet COF because we can’t trot Stewart out there on a 100 loss team all year. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

In their first 17 career MLB games, Stewart actually out OPS’d Mullins by 20 points!  

Just goes to show what perception does. Mullins is the underdog, 13th rd draft pick. Stewart is the former first round bust. Mullins will be the next face of the O’s and CF for the next 6 years. We need to sign a vet COF because we can’t trot Stewart out there on a 100 loss team all year. 

Also Stewart was better in left than Mullins was in center.  After us hearing what a butcher Stewart was and what a plus glove Mullins had.

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24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also Stewart was better in left than Mullins was in center.  After us hearing what a butcher Stewart was and what a plus glove Mullins had.

I don't consider Stewart a butcher.  He catches what he gets to but his range is average to below average.  His arm is not strong therefore does not fit well in right field.   He can play left field and his arm is average to below average in left field.

Diaz and Hays are both outfielders that can play the corners and have above average to plus  range and arm strength.  They are  likely to push Stewart out of a starting position in the corner outfield spot when they are ready for the majors.

Mullins has center fielder range and a below average arm.  McKenna is reported to have better speed than Mullins and a stronger arm.  If McKenna hits when he is  ready for the majors he should push Mullins out of a starting position in center field.

When Diaz, McKenna and Hays are ready Mullins and Stewart would seem to be 4th and 5th outfielders.

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8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

In their first 17 career MLB games, Stewart actually out OPS’d Mullins by 20 points!  

Just goes to show what perception does. Mullins is the underdog, 13th rd draft pick. Stewart is the former first round bust. Mullins will be the next face of the O’s and CF for the next 6 years. We need to sign a vet COF because we can’t trot Stewart out there on a 100 loss team all year. 

Pretty bold predictions if you ask me.    I don’t think either Mullins or Stewart is sure to be a starter a year from now, nor is it certain that either won’t be.    I’m perfectly happy seeing each get 500 PA this year and showing what they can do.   A year from now we could have Hays, Diaz and McKenna all pushing them out, or at least cutting into their playing time.    But for 2019, show us what you’ve got, I say.

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