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weams

Bat Fips and Nerds: The Shift

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For LHH they swing more at pitches which are on the edge and outside of the zone, but for RHH they swing less at these pitches. Also, the RHH the swing and miss rate is lower for pitches in the heart of the zone or on the shadow of the plate.  It therefore looks like right handed batters are being more patient than normal when they are shifted against, and left handers are being less patient. 

Let’s look at where they are swinging in more detail, to see if the data backs this theory up.

To do this we fitted a binomial generalized additive model, in R, to all base empty pitches for the same shifted batters.  Where the outcome is 1 (swing) or 0 (no swing) and the logit of the probability of a swing is a smooth function of the pitch location.  This is modelled for each of the 8 ‘handedness’ and ‘shifting’ scenarios. The data for the shifted and non-shifted batters is from Statcast, there has been no weighting adjustments for number of shifted and non-shifted at bats of these hitters (selection bias).

This generates a difference map showing areas where the modelled probability of swing is different for shifted and non-shifted at bats. For the difference graphs, a positive difference indicates that the non-shifted model had a higher probability of swing.”

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1 hour ago, weams said:

For LHH they swing more at pitches which are on the edge and outside of the zone, but for RHH they swing less at these pitches. Also, the RHH the swing and miss rate is lower for pitches in the heart of the zone or on the shadow of the plate.  It therefore looks like right handed batters are being more patient than normal when they are shifted against, and left handers are being less patient. 

Let’s look at where they are swinging in more detail, to see if the data backs this theory up.

To do this we fitted a binomial generalized additive model, in R, to all base empty pitches for the same shifted batters.  Where the outcome is 1 (swing) or 0 (no swing) and the logit of the probability of a swing is a smooth function of the pitch location.  This is modelled for each of the 8 ‘handedness’ and ‘shifting’ scenarios. The data for the shifted and non-shifted batters is from Statcast, there has been no weighting adjustments for number of shifted and non-shifted at bats of these hitters (selection bias).

This generates a difference map showing areas where the modelled probability of swing is different for shifted and non-shifted at bats. For the difference graphs, a positive difference indicates that the non-shifted model had a higher probability of swing.”

How much of the difference is just Davis?

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