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Luke-OH

Luke’s Draft Musings

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Just now, Satyr3206 said:

These are short videos but a few things caught my eye. Ealy's weight transfer is a little early. Needs to keep his weight on his back leg more or he's hitting with his arms.

Hampton took a lot of breaking balls. I'd have to see more to see if that's an issue.

I agree about the weight transfer, what I really don't like (other than the bat path which is flat) is how Ealy's hands work on contact. 

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4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree about the weight transfer, what I really don't like (other than the bat path which is flat) is how Ealy's hands work on contact. 

The weight transfer would alter his swing plane slightly. Might quiet his hands down because his power would be coming from his hips, not his arms and hands.

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8 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

The weight transfer would alter his swing plane slightly. Might quiet his hands down because his power would be coming from his hips, not his arms and hands.

That makes sense, it's just too far from what I want to see to feel comfortable grabbing him at 42 and possibly overslot. 

Now if I was a hitting coach and I just see a fixable issue that I've fixed before, maybe I'd have a different take on it. 

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52 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That makes sense, it's just too far from what I want to see to feel comfortable grabbing him at 42 and possibly overslot. 

Now if I was a hitting coach and I just see a fixable issue that I've fixed before, maybe I'd have a different take on it. 

I'll defer to you on where in the draft he would go. I wouldn't go overslot for someone that needs major form and swing changes.

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5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I was digging around and I found an interview where they asked him about the shoulder because people speculated that it was hurting because his sophomore year he didn't make hard throws to second between each inning. He said that it wasn't because his shoulder bothered him, it was fine, he just didn't see the need to make a max effort throw each inning. 

I didn't see that interview. One of the BA writers made a comment from what I recall . Perhaps he was alluding to that material you point out.

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43 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Would you be shocked or unhappy if we drafted Witt?

I’d be surprised, not unhappy, Witt Jr is a hell of a prospect and maybe a greater chance of being a star level player who I’d love to have in the system, but I’d also have some concern because the chance of a soul-crushing bust also is notably higher with Witt than Rutschman. 

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12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I’d be surprised, not unhappy, Witt Jr is a hell of a prospect and maybe a greater chance of being a star level player who I’d love to have in the system, but I’d also have some concern because the chance of a soul-crushing bust also is notably higher with Witt than Rutschman. 

If the Baseball Gods could promise you Rutschman's career is identical to Wieters, would you take that over what Witt could become?

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On 4/7/2019 at 10:39 AM, Luke-OH said:

I thought it was a hand injury, did he get a bad shoulder working back from the hand injury?

Nope, you're right.  It is his hand.  Discomfort due to blood clots.  It's a real shame as he's a great kid.  During school breaks he works out at my son's baseball academy and helps the younger kids.

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Just now, OregonBird said:

Nope, you're right.  It is his hand.  Discomfort due to blood clots.  It's a real shame as he's a great kid.  During school breaks he works out at my son's baseball academy and helps the younger kids.

I appreciate that insight into the kid’s makeup, I really liked what I saw watching him pitch for team USA. I thought he was a late first round talent. Hopefully he’ll be able to get out there and show teams he’s healthy at some point. 

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5 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

If the Baseball Gods could promise you Rutschman's career is identical to Wieters, would you take that over what Witt could become?

That’s really tough, Wieters is a little below the median outcome for a 1-1 overall pick, maybe 35-40% percentile 1-1 outcome. So I guess I’d go a different direction.

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11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s really tough, Wieters is a little below the median outcome for a 1-1 overall pick, maybe 35-40% percentile 1-1 outcome. So I guess I’d go a different direction.

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

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1 hour ago, OregonBird said:

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

You're right about that. Adley's swing is quick and compact. Good hip turn too. I don't think Witt or anyone else is close to 1:1 right now.

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2 hours ago, OregonBird said:

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

Yeah I don’t think Adley and Wieters are the same guy, I was just going with the question. I didn’t scout Wieters when he was in college and it’s easy in find Wieters flaws in hindsight, but I do agree with you that Adley’s swing is more compact with more pure bat speed. Adley is a better pure athlete too.

Statistically, Wieters hit between 1.050 and 1.085 OPS each of his 3 years at Georgia Tech. Rutschman was just .623 his freshman year but was 1.133 last year and is 1.405 so for this year. I don’t know enough about the 2007 ACC to compare quality of competition to 2019 PAC12, but Wieters put up those numbers before they switched to BBCOR bats.

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Hey Luke, what do you think of HS junior Mick Abel?  He's climbing and should be Top 5 in the 2020 Draft.  

I'm always amazed at the talent in the Portland area.  

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