Luke’s Draft Musings

[OregonBird]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s really tough, Wieters is a little below the median outcome for a 1-1 overall pick, maybe 35-40% percentile 1-1 outcome. So I guess I’d go a different direction.

What if you could get Joe Mauer like production out of Adley?  Both guys were tremendous athletes at similar age, both sweet, efficient swings.  

No brainer.....

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, OregonBird said:

What if you could get Joe Mauer like production out of Adley?  Both guys were tremendous athletes at similar age, both sweet, efficient swings.  

No brainer.....

Not the best choice of terms when discussing Mauer.

[OregonBird]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not the best choice of terms when discussing Mauer.

Oops, yeah forgot about that. 

Fine career though.

[WalkWithElias]

3 hours ago, OregonBird said:

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

I wasn't suggesting they were the same player. They are both college catchers with strong defensive skills and prodigious college stats who are considered among the top of the draft class overall. We know what Wieters became: A multi-time all-star and strong contributor to an upper division team. The club was in the wilderness at the time of Wieters' selection and the team didn't have a winning season until his fourth season in the league.

We'll be expecting whoever we select with the top pick to be a cornerstone going forward. Simply asking whether or not what we got from Wieters would be considered acceptable or if we'd rather roll the dice with someone higher-upside. 

[Luke-OH]

On 4/8/2019 at 6:00 PM, OregonBird said:

Hey Luke, what do you think of HS junior Mick Abel?  He's climbing and should be Top 5 in the 2020 Draft.  

I'm always amazed at the talent in the Portland area.  

I've seen a couple clips of him pitching but haven't really paid much attention, I'm completely 2019 focused right now, but I'll check him out in detail this summer I'm sure. Projectable, quick arm, more velocity coming, and he can spin it. 

[Luke-OH]

Some other college players I've been able to watch game video of and have impressed.

Nick Grande - SS - Stony Brook - not much power, but can really pick it at SS and has a patient approach with good bat speed, plus runner

Ryan Jensen - RHP - Fresno State -  I mentioned him a while back on Twitter but I forgot to make note of him here. He sits in the mid 90s, t98 with late life. About as premium of a fastball as you'll find in the college ranks. Not a big guy and he doesn't have a good secondary pitch yet, but he's athletic and physically strong on the mound. He might be a reliever long term but could be a good one. 

Nick Kahle - C - Washington - The guy doesn't have premium tools but a great approach and balance at the plate, he's not going to be an elite defensive catcher but he'll stick. He profiles as a backup catcher at the next level. Some chance for more if the power continues to develop. 

Dasan Brown - CF - Canada HS - Super premium bat speed, but not polished at the plate and not a ton of present strength. Plus runner, some ceiling to the bat when he gets stronger and cleans up his approach. 

 T.J. Sikkema - LHP - Missouri - funky low slot lefty with legit velocity, 91-94 with sink. Slider flashes and has feel for a changeup. 4th/5th starter, GB innings eater type profile. Would be great value in the 4th if he gets that far.

Kody Hoese - 3B -Tulane - breakout power bat, creates great leverage, a major damage on contact guy with an athletic frame who should stick at 3B. He's may be an option at #42 overall, I need to see more defense.

Tommy Jew - CF - UCSB -  one of the few speed/power CF out there in the college class (outside of Misner/Bishop who are going early in the first round), not a big guy but doesn't get cheated at the plate, uses his lower half well. Some swing and miss, but a good athlete. Another guy I think would be great value in the 4th.

Brandon Lewis - 3B - UC Irvine - JC transfer with plus raw power and natural loft to the swing to get to it in game, has improved defensively at 3B with D1 coaching but may have to move to 1B or a corner outfield spot. 

Evan Brabrand - RHP - Liberty - older guy, 23 years old, 5th year senior, those guys usually aren't prospects. Brabrand is, he spins a curveball at 3000rpm, can pitch strictly off of an above average 86-90mph cutter, but also can run a 4S up to 95. Fast moving multi-inning reliever.

Jacob Wallace - RHP - UConn - A max effort, pitbull reliever with a fastball up to 97 with life. He also has an above average slider. Control over command and probably won't ever be a command guy, but a fast moving reliever

[baltfan]

On 4/8/2019 at 9:23 AM, WalkWithElias said:

If the Baseball Gods could promise you Rutschman's career is identical to Wieters, would you take that over what Witt could become?

Looks a little faster than Weiters. 

 

[Jammer7]

@Luke-OH Any thoughts on Quinn Preister (IL HS)? Seen a little video. The story goes that he taught himself to pitch. Maybe round 3?

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

@Luke-OH Any thoughts on Quinn Preister (IL HS)? Seen a little video. The story goes that he taught himself to pitch. Maybe round 3?

I wasn’t overly impressed with last summer’s video, thought he’d go late enough (3rd-4th) to school, but it looks like the velocity is improved and wouldn’t be surprised if he slips into the first round if he holds the stuff he showed his first outing of the spring for crosscheckers and decision makers to see.

[Frobby]

Who are some guys with a 50/50 chance of being available when our second round pick comes around?    Seems to me that could be our toughest pick in this draft.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who are some guys with a 50/50 chance of being available when our second round pick comes around?    Seems to me that could be our toughest pick in this draft.

Hard to say with HS kids, there are probably 20-30 names who could go as high as the teens or as low as the late second (or fall out of the top ten rounds with a big signing bonus ask).

College guys (going off other people’s rankings, because some of these guys I am much higher or lower on) who could be there in no particular order.

Jackson Rutledge - hard throwing, big bodied JUCO arm with some relief risk

Seth Johnson- I’ve wrote about him a ton and think he should go earlier, but teams are risk adverse

Greg Jones - former O’s unsigned pick, toolsy SS (draft eligible Soph), has gotten stronger from HS days and has 55 raw power, 70 speed, still pretty raw though

Graeme Stinson - most people’s top arm coming into the spring, but he broke down under a starter’s workload and lost almost 10 mph on the FB and now hasn’t pitched in awhile, probably injured. At his best he was upper 90s LH velocity and best slider in the class. Hard to tell where he’ll go without seeing the medicals 

Matt Canterino - I have him lower, low 90s righty with funk and pitch-ability. Also a good curveball. Control over command, backend type without a ton of upside IMO

Drey Jameson- Soph eligible righty was plus performance to go along with 92-96 t97 and a plus slider, change and command need work, pretty high effort delivery with head whack but is a good athlete and holds velocity well.

Carter Stewart- 9th overall pick last year, playing in JUCO, stuff has taken a step back 

Michael Toglia - tall lanky 1B/maybe COF with athletic actions and big power, may have swing and miss issues due to lever length, hasn’t performed as well as expected thus far

Chase Strumpf - 2B with a bunch of average tools, huge performance last year but has been underwhelming this spring

Matt Wallner -RF with huge raw power, huge arm (96+ on mound), dealt with arm issues that have kept him from being a two way player this spring. He’s also slumped at the plate but appears to be breaking out of it.

Cameron Cannon - 2B/3B with elite approach, quick hands, and a bunch of average tools

Kody Hoese - 3B breakout power bat, dominant performance this spring, scouts reportedly aren’t enthused about his raw tools, but they may be talking about old looks, he’s drastically improved his strength and swing from last summer IMO

Ryan Pepiot - 91-94 with an excellent changeup and high spin curveball and fastball. Good not great performance, not the best athlete. 

Grant Gambrell - RHP up to 97, sits 91-95, mostly lower late in games, good not great performance but potential above average SL and change. 

Guys who should be gone but could slip,

George Kirby - elite performance, above command,and well rounded repertoire but is just a low 90s guy so he could fall.

One of the Will Wilson, Logan Davidson, Branden Shewmake group of big conference SS.

Kameron Misner- tooled up OF who had top 5-10 helium at one point but is showing huge swing and miss against premium competition

Guys I think should be considered but aren’t ranked that highly elsewhere, not an exhaustive list 

Tony Locey

Alec Marsh

 Brady McConnell

Tanner Morris 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

I’ve mentioned Carter Stewart’s stuff taking a step back, here’s what I meant.

Antoine Kelly is a name I should mention, 19 year old upper 90s JUCO lefty, pretty raw, but the upside is huge if he can start.

[Can_of_corn]

31 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I’ve mentioned Carter Stewart’s stuff taking a step back, here’s what I meant.

Antoine Kelly is a name I should mention, 19 year old upper 90s JUCO lefty, pretty raw, but the upside is huge if he can start.

I was curious about why Kelly went to JUCO.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/park-ridge/sports/ct-prh-antoine-kelly-san-diego-padres-mlb-draft-decision-tl-0802-story.html

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was curious about why Kelly went to JUCO.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/park-ridge/sports/ct-prh-antoine-kelly-san-diego-padres-mlb-draft-decision-tl-0802-story.html

The Brewster guy he trains with is one of the best non-affiliated pitching guys out there. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

The Brewster guy he trains with is one of the best non-affiliated pitching guys out there. 

Seems like he made the right choice.