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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Mullins is going to learn to hit lefties in AAA any more than in the majors.    

I think he’s in camp until the end.    We’ll see how the next 2 weeks go and make a decision based on more information.  

As I said I am still evaluating.  But Mullins is behind in the competition right now.

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14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I think it would be foolish for the Orioles to play Hays over Mullins in CF. If Cedric doesn’t hit LHP -and I don’t think he will- and eventually Hays plays CF vs LHP that’s fine. 

His biggest ceiling is a capable starting CF vs RHP. His arm is what it is. Al Bumbry didn’t have an arm either and he lasted a long time. 

I have no idea why the Orioles would not take advantage of the regular season and let this play out. One of the advantages of seasons like this are giving real opportunities.  

On a side note I can accept a poor arm if that player chases down balls in the OF. We saw last year how much that hurt.  

From what I’ve seen I think Mullins’ arm is significantly weaker than Bumbry’s*.    But, we’ll see.   I do think range in CF is very important.   

* Based on my visual impression.    Bumbry’s career hold rate (40%) is worse than Mullins’ 2018 (41%).   But he played in a bigger ballpark, too.

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 Everybody has their favorite players but what are the MLB scouts saying. This is a tweet from baseball america. Had to type. Couldn't figure out how to cut and paste. 

Austin Hays OF, Orioles

Scouts's Take: "He's swinging the bat better this spring. I don't think there's any way he's a centerfielder. I know he made a highlight catch the other day, a diving catch in right-center, and he did get a good jump on it. I do think Austin Hays is going to be a nice player, I do not think he is going to be a centerfielder. I saw where the other day they said their center field competition is wide open. If that's not Cedric Mullins, then they dont have another center fielder on their roster. Austin Hays, he's stretched there, even the routine plays, and I was alarmed by his throwing arm. I was surprised at how poorly the ball came out."

 

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16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From what I’ve seen I think Mullins’ arm is significantly weaker than Bumbry’s*.    But, we’ll see.   I do think range in CF is very important.   

* Based on my visual impression.    Bumbry’s career hold rate (40%) is worse than Mullins’ 2018 (41%).   But he played in a bigger ballpark, too.

I was pretty young when Al played but I know his arm was never strong.

Makes me think of that great throw from Shelby in 1982 at Milwaukee. 

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4 minutes ago, Thats Baseball said:

 Everybody has their favorite players but what are the MLB scouts saying. This is a tweet from baseball america. Had to type. Couldn't figure out how to cut and paste. 

Austin Hays OF, Orioles

Scouts's Take: "He's swinging the bat better this spring. I don't think there's any way he's a centerfielder. I know he made a highlight catch the other day, a diving catch in right-center, and he did get a good jump on it. I do think Austin Hays is going to be a nice player, I do not think he is going to be a centerfielder. I saw where the other day they said their center field competition is wide open. If that's not Cedric Mullins, then they dont have another center fielder on their roster. Austin Hays, he's stretched there, even the routine plays, and I was alarmed by his throwing arm. I was surprised at how poorly the ball came out."

 

Unless something drastic has changed, Hays has an above average arm.   Maybe the scout caught him on a bad day?

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7 minutes ago, Thats Baseball said:

 Everybody has their favorite players but what are the MLB scouts saying. This is a tweet from baseball america. Had to type. Couldn't figure out how to cut and paste. 

Austin Hays OF, Orioles

Scouts's Take: "He's swinging the bat better this spring. I don't think there's any way he's a centerfielder. I know he made a highlight catch the other day, a diving catch in right-center, and he did get a good jump on it. I do think Austin Hays is going to be a nice player, I do not think he is going to be a centerfielder. I saw where the other day they said their center field competition is wide open. If that's not Cedric Mullins, then they dont have another center fielder on their roster. Austin Hays, he's stretched there, even the routine plays, and I was alarmed by his throwing arm. I was surprised at how poorly the ball came out."

 

Rickard can play CF. Maybe better than Mullins. 

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From what I’ve seen I think Mullins’ arm is significantly weaker than Bumbry’s*.    But, we’ll see.   I do think range in CF is very important.   

* Based on my visual impression.    Bumbry’s career hold rate (40%) is worse than Mullins’ 2018 (41%).   But he played in a bigger ballpark, too.

As I said.  Brumbry as a rookie has a 398 OBP and a 898 OPS.   That followed  397 OBP, 919 OPS at AAA.  Managers will deal with a weak arm for those kind of numbers.  I have not seen that kind of offensive production potential from Mullins even against only righties.

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Unless something drastic has changed, Hays has an above average arm.   Maybe the scout caught him on a bad day?

Those anonymous scouts' takes are always weird. That whole quote doesn't sound like a scout, sounds like a casual observer or maybe a scout who was paying attention to other players and only made a passing assessment about Hays. 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I said.  Brumbry as a rookie has a 398 OBP and a 898 OPS.   That followed  397 OBP, 919 OPS at AAA.  Managers will deal with a weak arm for those kind of numbers.  I have not seen that kind of offensive production potential from Mullins even against only righties.

Are you gonna be ok if Hays doesn't end up in CF?

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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you gonna be ok if Hays doesn't end up in CF?

I think the O’s are going to experiment with all kinds of things this season.   I don’t expect this to be the 2013 Orioles with 6 starters playing 150 games and a catcher playing 130.    So I’m not going to worry about who is in CF or anywhere else on Opening Day.  

Interesting to note that Mullins played 48 games in Bowie in 2017 while Hays was on the team (Mullins missed some time with injury in that time).    Mullins played 36 games in CF and 12 in the corners in that stretch.   So, the Baysox usually preferred Mullins in CF over Hays defensively, but not always.   Hays played 32 of his 64 games in Bowie in CF.    As noted, Mullins didn’t play in all those games.

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Apparently Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs isn't a big fan.   In today's discussion of left fielders:

Quote

Impatient hitters with limited contact profiles are pretty scary, especially if they have corner-only defensive homes, and Hays is all of these things. He walks just 4% of the time, pulls nearly 50% of the balls he puts in play, and isn't fast enough to play center field. But the power is real, and I don't think he's as bad as his 2018 statline. He should get ample opportunity to play and adjust to big league pitching in a situation with very low stakes due to Baltimore's rebuild.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-left-field/

Way too much emphasis on last year IMO.    It's also weird that he chose to discuss Hays in LF, which is not his likely landing spot IMO.

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I agree with the people who worry about the combination of Mullins' arm and his inability to hit lefties. He will have to have stellar range and/or a Johnny Damon like bat to profile as a starter, in my book.

I also agree with the people who dislike Austin Hays' walk rates, but the rest of his game seems fine to me. Maybe he isn't a prototypical CFer, but defensively he can be an above average corner outfielder. At least I think he can. I also think the bat plays well enough that, with new/better instruction, it will end up a plus and ultimately with a better-than-now walk rate. Unfortunately, I do agree that the walk rate is a big enough issue that it probably means he'll never get to that super star level, but I do think he can be a low-level star (not that I can quantify that).

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On 3/14/2019 at 8:13 PM, Frobby said:

From what I’ve seen I think Mullins’ arm is significantly weaker than Bumbry’s*.    But, we’ll see.   I do think range in CF is very important.   

* Based on my visual impression.    Bumbry’s career hold rate (40%) is worse than Mullins’ 2018 (41%).   But he played in a bigger ballpark, too.

You've seen wrong then.  The Bee had an absolute lollipop of an arm.  But what he did extremely well was round out his routes so he was always catching the ball with momentum to whereever he was throwing.  Even with one of the weakest OF arms in baseball, Bumbry was a good CFer.  Range is far more important than arm.  

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