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2019 O's: Where service time is king

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The way the season is headed the O's  will lose a lot in the early going with most of their top prospects in the minors.  In May we should see a few of those prospects promoted.  Then in late July, Elias will sell off any veterans for whom he can get a decent return or in some cases salary relief.   After that the O's will lose even more frequently.      So there is no reason to waste prospects service time in 2019.  Here is what I expect:

We will not see the following prospects play a major league game until 16 games into the 2020 season: Diaz, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, McKenna, Pop.

Hunter Harvey will not be promoted until 19 games in the  2020 season.

Chance Sisco and Tanner Scott  will be held in the minors until the beginning of the 2020 season.

The following prospects will be promoted on these dates if they are playing well at the time:

Austin Hays:  May 16th

Anthony Santander: May 28th

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2 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I predict 5 threads per day from wildcard about what players should be signed/traded/released/claimed/promoted during this season.

How would that be a change?

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Well, whatever happens, happens.  I disagree with the opening post, too.  I'm not one for rosterbation in terms of promotions/demotions, though but if what's outlined in the OP is what ends up happening, hopefully it's for the best.  

  

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16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The way the season is headed the O's  will lose a lot in the early going with most of their top prospects in the minors.  In May we should see a few of those prospects promoted.  Then in late July, Elias will sell off any veterans for whom he can get a decent return or in some cases salary relief.   After that the O's will lose even more frequently.      So there is no reason to waste prospects service time in 2019.  Here is what I expect:

We will not see the following prospects play a major league game until 16 games into the 2020 season: Diaz, Mountcastle, Akin, McKenna, Pop.

Hunter Harvey will not be promoted until 19 games in the  2020 season.

Chance Sisco and Tanner Scott  will be held in the minors until the beginning of the 2020 season.

The following prospects will be promoted on these dates with they are playing well at the time:

Austin Hays:  May 16th

Anthony Santander: May 28th

Nice work on finding all this info and all, but I just don't see it playing out exactly like this. Especially if there are injuries at the ML level that force moves. 

It COULD play out like this, but it's awfully hard as a GM to just plan out your moves like this. I still maintain that Elias has development in mind more than service time. A full reset for the prospects that were definitely rushed. A more thorough evaluation and instruction in the minors using their proprietary analytics, and then reassess. 

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10 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I predict 5 threads per day from wildcard about what players should be signed/traded/released/claimed/promoted during this season.

Maybe 5 posts.  Not 5 threads

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It’s a “player development” staff. That is king in the new regime. Hays is the only case that holds even a bit of water, to me. Hays showed some of the more subtle things that supported his case to stay. But even he has things to work on and be consistent with. I think it’s foolish to think that service time plays no role, but with that said I think it’s a small role in isolated cases. 

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If you don't see Sisco in an Orioles uniform before the season ends you'll never see him in an Orioles uniform again.

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Just now, RZNJ said:

If you don't see Sisco in an Orioles uniform before the season ends you'll never see him in an Orioles uniform again.

Yup, he's either going to prove that ST was not a fluke or he'll be gone.

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I may not agree with the specifics, but I do agree with the spirit of wildcard's post. The issue also may not be service time. It may really be player development. Either way, Elias isn't in a hurry to put the most talent possible on our 25 man roster. 

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8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you don't see Sisco in an Orioles uniform before the season ends you'll never see him in an Orioles uniform again.

I think that applies to DJ Stewart as well.

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I do have one new-ish armchair psychologist angle on this.

At some point this summer or next, guys like Diaz, Mountcastle, etc are going to get the first plate appearances of their lives when it counts against guys like Sale, Paxton, Price, Severino.  That'll become their life experience anchor points for current MLB All-Stars we hope they will kick the butts of in a few years.  I can live with managing that to when those guys are a year worse.

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To me the big signal of the spring is not service time but nuggets. Elias is trying to accumulate as many as possible to bolster the system. He would rather be on the claiming side of the DFA ledger. It appears that Ruiz and Smith have turned into keepers, at least for the time being. That hurt Hays, but he was a longshot to make the team anyway (service time being one issue but not the only one). If you bring up Hays the second he is eligible, who do you DFA?

This also works in favor of Mike Wright and Araujo (although I'm not sure the latter has officially made it). Araujo will probably go down as soon as the O's can keep him, but it looks like Wright is in the rotation. It's not about service time, it's about avoiding DFA if there is any chance the player has any long term value.

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