I'd hope they could sign Mancini to a ~2M guarantee with easy to reach PA incentives to get him back over 5M if he is healthy and playing.
Hays, Mullins, and Santander is my opening day OF next year. Mountcastle and Mancini at 1B/DH. Stewart on the bench. McKenna and Diaz at AAA to start.
I would trade Nunez, DFA Ruiz, and sign another major league infielder. Bring Schoop or Villar back or Jurickson Profar maybe. Move Alberto to 3B.
That's a ML lineup and a very strong defensive team. Of course, getting Schoop or Profar isn't likely but I'm having fun over here. And is a 60M ML payroll really too much to ask?
First, I don’t think the range is $5-8 mm. $5 mm is about the ceiling (Mancini was due to earn $4.75 mm this year.) For example, Alex Cobb earned $4 mm in his first Arb year, missed that whole season with TJ surgery that cropped up that spring, and got paid $4 mm the following year. I think that’s pretty typical when a player misses the whole season due to injury or other physical reasons.
$5 mm is not pocket change when you are uncertain how strongly Mancini will come back, assuming he’s able to do so. But, the upside is pretty good too. And yes, the O’s have a bunch of other 1B/DH/OF types, but none of them except possibly Mountcastle has Mancini’s upside. I think that, along with PR, team morale and other “soft factors” will lead the O’s to bring him back and take their chances. Whether they try to make a move or two to alleviate the crowding at 1B/DH/OF will be interesting to watch.
The idea of having Mancini come back to potentially get value for him is something that crossed my mind. However, will anyone trade for him (or at least give up value for him) even if he is having a good 2021 season?
If I was a team, I would be very wary about trading for him, at least trading real value for him.
If you want to get rid of him, you've gotta let him play some next year to show that he's playing at a good level before shipping him off. WHICH I KNOW YOU WANNA DO, SG!!! YOU LOVE THE TRADES!!!!!11
Like I said before, I think this team has had a harder time cutting bait with Davis and I won't believe it until I see it. I felt at this time last year that there was no way Davis would be back for 2020. And here we are.
So Davis obviously has to go. I'd look to move Nunez and Rio Ruiz, too. They're both a bit redundant. And I'd have Mountcastle/Mancini between 1B/DH with an outfield of Hays/Mullins/Santander. I don't think Mullins is a long term CF solution by any stretch and it's only a matter of time before Hays goes down with an injury.