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Extend Mancini??

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54 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Trumbo has had sooooooooooo many peaks and valleys though. I think Trey has the ability to be much more consistent from one season to the next and I think there's something to be said for that. 

No.

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15 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Both have plus power and that's about it. They are RH and aren't good enough hitters to be more than average 1B/DH. There are some differences but the overall profile and value is about the same IMO.

I always get a little confused about how much someone has to hit to be an above average offensive 1B. Going backward to previous years, AL 1st basemen carried a 108, 112, 108, 113, and 101 tOPS.  Manicini is at 113 for his career, but it's been up and down granted. I get the feeling that sticking him at 1st isn't going to kill us compared to the league.

I think I'd be pretty ambivalent on extending him or going to arb. There's risk he performs poorly but their could be a little surplus value there even if he ends up as a good-but-not-elite 1st/DH type. Total cop-out answer, I know.

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EDIT: I read the page wrong, it shows WAA, not WAR. I'm not longer sure what the numbers show.

Digging a little further, I pulled up the last AL team WAA positional splits for the last 5 years, and 1st base is actually a pretty weak position on AVG. Only 3 teams (2 of them DET) have wrangled more than 2 WAA out of their players at 1st over the last 5 seasons.

AL-wide its run an avg WAA deficit against the rest of the roster every single season.

 

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1 minute ago, SurhoffRules said:

Digging a little further, I pulled up the last AL team WAR positional splits for the last 5 years, and 1st base is actually a pretty weak position on AVG. Only 3 teams (2 of them DET) have wrangled more than 2 WAR out of their players at 1st over the last 5 seasons.

AL-wide its' run an avg WAR deficit against the rest of the roster every single season.

This doesn’t make a lot of sense.   WAR contains a positional adjustment, and if first basemen are consistently averaging below 2 WAR that suggests the positional adjustment is wrong.    

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This doesn’t make a lot of sense.   WAR contains a positional adjustment, and if first basemen are consistently averaging below 2 WAR that suggests the positional adjustment is wrong.    

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=AL&year=2018

EDIT: I was wrong, page show WAA, not WAR. Thank you for catching my oversight.

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If there was ever a case for us not to extend someone its probably Trey Mancini.  I know we messed up Schoop (seems better for us that we didnt extend in hindsight), Manny, etc but Mancini is not the player to start with.  Four years left and most likely he will replaceable/will be a 2-3 million per year player at the end of that.  Alternatively if he really does improve and has a great year, that extension can still happen without losing too much long term.  

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19 minutes ago, weams said:

What do DH's consistently WAR in as? 

Now that I'm sure I'm speaking in WAR.

AVG AL DH WAR for the last 5 years 1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 0.9, and 2.0.

AVG AL 1st base WAR 1.8, 2.0, 1.6 2.1, and 1.2.

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Just now, SurhoffRules said:

Now that I'm sure I'm speaking in WAR.

AVG AL DH WAR for the last 5 years 1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 0.9, and 2.0.

AVG AL 1st base WAR 1.8, 2.0, 1.6 2.1, and 1.2.

So very little according to those types of metrics. 

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7 minutes ago, weams said:

So very little according to those types of metrics. 

I'm still figuring out what I think these numbers mean but a few things stick out to me.

There hasn't been an AL team that recorded above 5.2 WAR at 1st base in the last 5 years. The range seems compressed into a +4 to -1 for 1st base over that time. I don't know if all that talent moved leagues, or we just have the position occupied by aging stars (Cabrera) and underperformers (Davis).

CF has consistently produced high-performers (thanks Trout) as well as high avg WAR across the AL. Story seems the same at 2B and 3B.

RF also looks to be a modest position of strength in the AL lately.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2018&lg=AL&stat=WAR

Link for 2018. 

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1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

Mancini's an 0 fer 10 streak away from someone starting a Dump Mancini thread.  

 

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8 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Mancini's an 0 fer 10 streak away from someone starting a Dump Mancini thread.  

I’m ready to start a dump Trey campaign if he puts in an 0-4 today and the Orioles lose. 😜

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Are you looking at the page that shows WAR, or Wins Above Average?    Because when I look at the WAR page, I see 3 AL teams above 2.0 for 2018 and 8 teams above 2.0 for 2017.    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2017&lg=AL&stat=WAR

I edited my post, but didn't quote you in my reply. Sorry. You are correct, it was WAA not WAR. I toggled it over to WAR and I'm pretty sure the trend still holds. There are not many high WARs at 1st base in the last several seasons and a compressed range of WAR (ending on the low side) amoung the other teams when compared to the rest of the positions on the field.

It's hard to use avg war per team at a position to gauge the strength of the position, because a few teams with superstars or horrible performers can muck with the final number. That being said, looking at the distribution of values across the teams/positions I feel that 1st base is not a position of surplus production in the AL right now. If anything it's gotten weaker from 2014-2018.

Unless there's a bevy of prospects ready to change that though the bar for Manicini to be a productive 1st baseman compared to the league is probably lower now than 10-20 years ago. Last year there were only 3 teams with a 1st base WAR above 2. In 2002 there were 9 such teams and 7 of them were above 3 WAR.

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23 minutes ago, SurhoffRules said:

I'm still figuring out what I think these numbers mean but a few things stick out to me.

There hasn't been an AL team that recorded above 5.2 WAR at 1st base in the last 5 years. The range seems compressed into a +4 to -1 for 1st base over that time. I don't know if all that talent moved leagues, or we just have the position occupied by aging stars (Cabrera) and underperformers (Davis).

CF has consistently produced high-performers (thanks Trout) as well as high avg WAR across the AL. Story seems the same at 2B and 3B.

RF also looks to be a modest position of strength in the AL lately.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2018&lg=AL&stat=WAR

Link for 2018. 

My guess is it’s harder to have a high WAR at 1B, since (1) the positional adjustment is negative, and (2) the variance between the top and low end on defensive runs saved is smaller than at other positions.   That said, even if you just look at offense, 1B hasn’t been that strong in the AL recently.    

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