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WalkWithElias

Grayson Rodriguez 2019

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Rodriquez has walked 15 batters in his last four starts after walking 16 in his first 12 starts.

He was just coming off a dominant performance on July 26 (10Ks, 2BB over 5IP) and most of those walks have come in two starts (11) so it may just be the ups and downs of a young man trying to work his way through his first professional season.

I haven't heard any reports of the stuff or if he's working on something so no real worries at this time. 

He reportedly touched 97 in that July 26 start which would be his best peak velocity of the season to my knowledge. He's t96 a number of times. 

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32 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He reportedly touched 97 in that July 26 start which would be his best peak velocity of the season to my knowledge. He's t96 a number of times. 

Nice, I hadn't heard that. Obviously no one likes the walks, but he may have been working on something. Glad to hear that velocity hadn't fallen off at all. 

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15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice, I hadn't heard that. Obviously no one likes the walks, but he may have been working on something. Glad to hear that velocity hadn't fallen off at all. 

I’m not too worried.   The kid has allowed more than 2 runs in 2 of his 16 starts, and those 2 were 6 weeks apart.    But, he bears watching with 75 innings under his belt.   

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McInturff:

“Teenage RHP w/ impressive mix of size, stuff, and remaining projection. Ceiling of power #3 SP w/ numerous miss-bat weapons. Proximity and present mechanical effort add risk.”

Rates his delivery as below average, supporting Keith Law’s opinion to a degree.    More details in the report.

https://2080baseball.com/reports/grayson-rodriguez/

 

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1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

Literally unhittable.   5 IP, 0 H.    And 10 K’s too.    Nice to see.   

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15 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

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22 hours ago, joelala said:

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

I thought the same thing.

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On 8/10/2019 at 7:46 PM, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

I’m thinking the stadium gun was a little hot.   Still, no doubt it was an impressive showing.   

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m thinking the stadium gun was a little hot.   Still, no doubt it was an impressive showing.   

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

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26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

This seems likely. Velocity numbers, specifically sitting numbers, are typically inflated.

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36 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

I would still posit that "ceiling of #3 starter" seems a bit pessimistic.  I can definitely see #3 starter as a 75-80th percentile outcome, but don't think really good #2 starter should be out of the question for "ceiling."

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2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I would still posit that "ceiling of #3 starter" seems a bit pessimistic.  I can definitely see #3 starter as a 75-80th percentile outcome, but don't think really good #2 starter should be out of the question for "ceiling."

I heard a quote one time, I’m not sure who it came from but it was from someone in the scouting/front office community. It was during Justin Turner’s 2nd 5 WAR season and went something the effect of if Justin Turner turned into a 5 WAR player then the ceiling for everyone in the upper minors is one of the best players in the league. 

Basically when people say ceiling, they talk about reasonable ceiling, not absolute ceiling but absolute ceiling wouldn’t be particularly useful in distinguishing between players.

That said, if he’s truly holding 96-97, that obviously changes the profile and any ceiling assessment. Although Keith Law thinks the arm action doesn’t work so he’d still project significant relief risk. I don’t think I ever said #3 ceiling, btw.

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