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Luke-OH

Ryan McKenna 2019

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17 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

But, he doesn't look like a AAA player at AA? He's hitting .232 with a .365 slugging percentage in his second taste of AA. McKenna has had an OPS above .770 in one minor league season. What indicators are there that McKenna will do better at AAA, much less look like a Major League player there? He certainly doesn't seem to be profiling as a .770 hitter in the majors. I do not understand your take on McKenna. I know we all root for certain guys really hard and I can understand rooting hard for McKenna, he's an interesting athlete and he had a great time in Frederick, but from my viewpoint you are looking at a 3/4 empty glass and somehow seeing it half full. I do not mean this as some pissy back and forth internet crossing of the swords. I'm honestly trying to understand what seems to me to be slightly irrational optimism about McKenna. The league average or slightly above league average stuff is really blah. The vast majority of average or slightly above average hitters in the Eastern League this year will be lucky to get a cup of coffee in the majors, much less profile as a .770 ML hitter. What am I missing? 

He is 22.

To be league average offensively at 22 in the Eastern League at a premium defensive position suggests that he won't hurt you offensively in the Major Leagues. Nobody said .770.

Dwight Smith Jr. was league average offensively in the Eastern League at 22. If he played above average defensive centerfield, he would be an MLB starter.

McKenna's value will come from his glove and his legs, but McKenna could develop power (15-ish home runs, 30 doubles power anyway) and if that materializes he is a league average centerfielder.

AAA is where I think we will find out.

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McKenna has had a somewhat disappointing season, but not a disqualifying one.  I’m not expecting him to be more than a fourth OF type in the majors, but he could still develop more and prove me wrong.

Anyway, you have to like his day today — triple, HBP with a stolen base, walk-off sac bunt for the win.

 

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

McKenna has had a somewhat disappointing season, but not a disqualifying one.  I’m not expecting him to be more than a fourth OF type in the majors, but he could still develop more and prove me wrong.

Anyway, you have to like his day today — triple, HBP with a stolen base, walk-off sac bunt for the win.

 

His stolen base today... He broke for third way too early. Pitcher threw behind him to second. McKenna got to third without a throw. Extremely bad defense. He should have been picked off.

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2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

He is 22.

To be league average offensively at 22 in the Eastern League at a premium defensive position suggests that he won't hurt you offensively in the Major Leagues. Nobody said .770.

Dwight Smith Jr. was league average offensively in the Eastern League at 22. If he played above average defensive centerfield, he would be an MLB starter.

McKenna's value will come from his glove and his legs, but McKenna could develop power (15-ish home runs, 30 doubles power anyway) and if that materializes he is a league average centerfielder.

AAA is where I think we will find out.

That’s just not correct. First, it’s not true that league average hitters at 22 in AA hit ok in the majors. There are hundreds if not thousands of negative examples. That’s not an age appropriate adjustment. Second, 22 is not particularly young for AA. that’s basically a standard age for good prospects in AA. 

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Above average defense at a premium position. Double plus speed. The offensive bar isn’t that high for those players. A 85 wRC+ with his speed and defense is an average regular. 

I get this, in general. But the hitting “profile” is the part I really didn’t and still don’t understand. I was hoping for some explanation of why his hitting performance  has been so underwhelming. 

 

Also, I wrote in general because I get the defensive potential, but defense only outfielders are becoming less common in baseball. Those guys are having a harder and harder time sticking on rosters for full seasons. Yes they can provide some value to teams, but the analytics approach teams don’t seem to employ the light hitting g defenders for very long. At least that’s what I see. 

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13 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

That’s just not correct. First, it’s not true that league average hitters at 22 in AA hit ok in the majors. There are hundreds if not thousands of negative examples. That’s not an age appropriate adjustment. Second, 22 is not particularly young for AA. that’s basically a standard age for good prospects in AA. 

There are 19 hitters in the Eastern League with a minimum of 126 at-bats that are 22 or younger. There are more than 19 good hitting prospects in the Eastern League.

Picking a year at random, 2015, the following Eastern League hitters were over 22 (minimum 141 at-bats):

JaCoby Jones, Adam Frazier, Trey Mancini, Aaron Judge, Wilmer Difo, Tyler Naquin, Aaron Altherr.

There were 22 hitters that were 22 and under that year, 21 of them have made the Majors, the only one who hasn't, Hunter Cole, currently has a .908 OPS in the PCL and probably will be called up in September.

 

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2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

There are 19 hitters in the Eastern League with a minimum of 126 at-bats that are 22 or younger. There are more than 19 good hitting prospects in the Eastern League.

Picking a year at random, 2015, the following Eastern League hitters were over 22 (minimum 141 at-bats):

JaCoby Jones, Adam Frazier, Try Mancini, Aaron Judge, Wilmer Difo, Tyler Naquin, Aaron Altherr

There were 21 hitters 22 and under that year, 21 of them have made the Majors, the only one who hasn't, Hunter Cole, currently has a .908 OPS in the PCL and probably will be called up in September.

 

 

8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

There are 19 hitters in the Eastern League with a minimum of 126 at-bats that are 22 or younger. There are more than 19 good hitting prospects in the Eastern League.

Picking a year at random, 2015, the following Eastern League hitters were over 22 (minimum 141 at-bats):

JaCoby Jones, Adam Frazier, Try Mancini, Aaron Judge, Wilmer Difo, Tyler Naquin, Aaron Altherr

There were 21 hitters 22 and under that year, 21 of them have made the Majors, the only one who hasn't, Hunter Cole, currently has a .908 OPS in the PCL and probably will be called up in September.

 

First, I agree that 22 is still “young” for a AA prospect.  23 and 24 are the prime ages. But it is not as young as your numbers suggest. Only a subset of players spend a whole or most of a season there, so you are excluding 22 year olds who were promoted after the start of the season. There are two other 22 year old players currently on the Bowie roster, for example (one is a hitter...Torres is actually 21, not 22 but he’s got the same birth year as MCKenna so I’ll count him as 22). Second, you are ignoring the players who are above AA.  For example, I quickly skimmed the list of players who have played in the majors this year and counted ten 22 year olds who played in the majors this year and I didn’t make it past the B’s. BUT, I do agree that 22 is still very young for AA.  But there are 22 year olds on most teams and many good prospects spend part of the year at AA.   

 

I think your 2015 choices are an interesting comparison.  Most of those guys dramatically out hit McKenna in AA.  Most of them were over .800 OPS and a couple were hammering the ball.  Trey Mancini, for example, crushed AA pitching at that age.  Really only one player hit as poorly as McKenna and Difo has been a part time, all glove middle infielder for a few years.  Being average in AA at 22 tells you very little.  Being average at 19 in AA or being a monster in AA at 22 would tell you more.  If you don’t believe me, then you can find the age adjustment regressions online and play with the numbers.  McKenna’s age won’t change much.  I think McKenna playing at AA this year is a product of the Orioles aggressive promotion of him last year.  

 

Again, I’m not trying to be a tit for tat internet jerk.  My tone often comes off as far more aggressive than I mean to sound.  I’m still very, very skeptical of McKenna. I’m not convinced by the age argument.  I think his Frederick performance was a fluky tease.  I will, however, happily admit I was wrong if McKenna develops into a regular player.  I actually hope I am wrong.  Regardless of our differences of opinion, I think we can all agree that next year is critical for his future development.  If he starts the year hit at Bowie, then I am sure he will spend significant time in Norfolk.  If he hits, then all will be well.  

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3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

 

First, I agree that 22 is still “young” for a AA prospect.  23 and 24 are the prime ages. But it is not as young as your numbers suggest. Only a subset of players spend a whole or most of a season there, so you are excluding 22 year olds who were promoted after the start of the season. There are two other 22 year old players currently on the Bowie roster, for example (one is a hitter...Torres is actually 21, not 22 but he’s got the same birth year as MCKenna so I’ll count him as 22). Second, you are ignoring the players who are above AA.  For example, I quickly skimmed the list of players who have played in the majors this year and counted ten 22 year olds who played in the majors this year and I didn’t make it past the B’s. BUT, I do agree that 22 is still very young for AA.  But there are 22 year olds on most teams and many good prospects spend part of the year at AA.   

This is from a Kiley McDainel chat on Fangraphs today:

Logan: When you talk about someone being young/old for their level, what are those ages at each level?
 
1:18

Kiley McDaniel: For prospects, the baseline is
18 – Rookie
19 – short-season
20 – Low-A
21 – High-A
22 – Double-A
23 – Triple-A

 
1:18

Kiley McDaniel: if a prospect is younger than those benchmarks, its a notable feather in the cap and you can round up a bit

 
1:1l9

Kiley McDaniel: for top 100-type prospects, they tend to be a level/year ahead of this rubric, starting Low-A at age 19 in first full season after being a HS pick, 17 in rookie ball after being J2 signee

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Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

We were able to keep Rickard who was more prepared with his bat, but it sounds like McKenna could be a capable 4th OF right now.

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24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

Does plus plus speed with "great" D play? (cough Ricky Martin cough)

dWAR is not an exact science @weams

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34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you think the O's will protect McKenna from the Rule 5 draft?   Do you think any team could keep him on the 25 roster all season next year?

I think you have to keep him unless you're convinced he's never going to hit. I'm not high on him, but I actually think it's a no brainer for this org.

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2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I think you have to keep him unless you're convinced he's never going to hit. I'm not high on him, but I actually think it's a no brainer for this org.

Its not a question of whether the O's keep him.  Its a question on whether someone would claim him as a Rule 5 guy and keep him all season.   If the other team doesn't keep him all season then he comes back to the O's.

Survivedc's comment about being a 4th outfielder makes me think he might be selected in the Rule 5 draft.  I mean if some team still wants Broxton in the majors then maybe someone would take McKenna and keep him.

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Just now, wildcard said:

Its not a question of whether the O's keep him.  Its a question on whether someone would claim him as a Rule 5 guy and keep him all season.   If the other team doesn't keep him all season then he comes back to the O's.

Survivedc's comment about being a 4th outfielder makes me think he might be selected in the Rule 5 draft.  I mean if some team still wants Broxton in the majors then maybe someone would take McKenna and keep him.

Absolutely. I don't think he'd be a particularly hard stash, especially in the NL with as much substituting as they do. 

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