Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Luke-OH

Ryan McKenna 2019

Recommended Posts

Interesting series for McKenna.    He batted .636 with a 1.460 OPS, but made critical baserunning mistakes that arguably cost the Baysox game 2 and earned him a benching in game 3.    He came back with a vengeance in game 4, going 3 for 4 with a walk.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Interesting series for McKenna.    He batted .636 with a 1.460 OPS, but made critical baserunning mistakes that arguably cost the Baysox game 2 and earned him a benching in game 3.    He came back with a vengeance in game 4, going 3 for 4 with a walk.    

It's hard to stay in the dugout when your post-season OPS is 1.460.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

McKenna might turn into something someday but I don't see protecting a guy who hit .240 in his 2nd try in AA and who most experts, including ours, projects as a 4th OF.   Teams pick Rule 5 guys for either present value or future dividends.  I just don't see anyone picking McKenna if he's left unprotected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

McKenna might turn into something someday but I don't see protecting a guy who hit .240 in his 2nd try in AA and who most experts, including ours, projects as a 4th OF.   Teams pick Rule 5 guys for either present value or future dividends.  I just don't see anyone picking McKenna if he's left unprotected.

You are underselling McKenna's projection. He projects to have a 4th outfielder floor and a starting centerfielder ceiling. He could easily be the 26th man on a roster next year as a defensive replacement and backup centerfielder, There is some real dreck being slotted into MLB lineups in centerfield. 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

Good work, but I don't see McKenna getting taken and if does, I don't see him sticking. Saying that, I haven't looked at the 40-man close enough to see if I would protect him or not, but since I see him as more of a 4th outfielder at best, I wouldn't be too concerned about losing him. Saying that, I'm definitely protecting him over the replacement level pitchers that currently litter the 40-man roster. 

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

More day to day interactions with Luke on the site.  That's all.  Whatever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

My guess is that would be a fun, but really tough task. I expect Elias to bring in a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of before. Last year it was Ruiz, Smith, Martin, Nunez and others. I know that happens every year, but I'm guessing it'll be more than usual just given where we still are in the rebuild. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My guess is that would be a fun, but really tough task. I expect Elias to bring in a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of before. Last year it was Ruiz, Smith, Martin, Nunez and others. I know that happens every year, but I'm guessing it'll be more than usual just given where we still are in the rebuild. 

Yeah, we may have to do a "vulnerable" list for the guys are whole vulnerable to being taken off. I imagine that list will be long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the O's don't protect McKenna, I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up by another club. Every club can use a + Glove ++ Speed late inning outfield defensive replacement on the bench and teams will have an extra bench slot next year, so keeping Rule V picks will be less burdensome that ever before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluedog said:

If the O's don't protect McKenna, I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up by another club. Every club can use a + Glove ++ Speed late inning outfield defensive replacement on the bench and teams will have an extra bench slot next year, so keeping Rule V picks will be less burdensome that ever before.

Tend to agree with this. McKenna seems like a Joey Rickard type Rule V candidate. With more teams taking the Orioles-Tigers-Royal approach to gutting the payroll if you can't compete, there could certainly be a team out there willing to stash him. Not saying it's likely. But it wouldn't be surprised if it happened if he's left unprotected. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







  • Posts

    • I guess the O's hadn't used the cheating technology yet.        
    • Does Cashner require an MLB deal?  Colon would at least draw some press. 
    • I think that was a great win.  Indiana scored on every single trip down the floor to start the second half.  It had to be 13 times down and 13 scores.  Even when they missed, they got the offensive rebound and scored.  I don't think they even made any free throws in that stretch.....it was all made baskets. Sometimes, the other team just decides to try harder and stops missing shots and they did a great job.  This had loss written all over it, so I have to give credit to the Terps for winning a game that they should have lost....which is very rare in the Turge era. 
    • I did in fact create a spreadsheet.     As mentioned, many of the pitchers were on the BA list more than once.    So, I've sorted them into four buckets according to the highest ranking they attained. BA 1-25:  30 pitchers achieved this level, and that group averaged 12.5 rWAR.     Of the 31 pitchers I categorized as "reliable starters," from this bucket you have four of the No. 1 Studs (Kershaw, Price, Strasburg and Bumgarner), one of the Solid No. 2's (Teheran), two of the Mid-Rotation guys (Buchholz and Porcello) and eight of the Middle/Back of Rotation guys (Bailey, Anderson, Tillman, Cahill, M. Perez, Hellickson, Moore and Wheeler).    So, that's 15 of the 30 who became reliable starting pitchers by my definition.  Two of the Stud Relievers, Davis and Chapman, also came from this bucket. BA 26-50: 26 pitchers achieved this level and the group averaged 7.3 rWAR.    The group includes one No. 1 Stud (Cueto), four Solid No. 2's (Gonzalez, Carrasco, Zimmermann and Chacin), one Mid-Rotation guy (Kennedy) and three Mid/Back of Rotation guys (Jurrjens, Holland and Gibson).    Nine out of 26 became reliable starters.   Stud reliever Britton also came from this category. BA 51-75: 23 pitchers reached this level, averaging 6.1 rWAR.   They include one No. 1 Stud (Scherzer), one Solid No. 2 (Arrieta), one Mid-Rotation guy (Leake), and two Mid/Back of Rotation guys (Niese and Cashner).   5 of 23 became reliable starters. BA 76-100: 20 pitchers were in this bucket.    Only two became reliable starters: Samardzija in the Mid-Rotation category and Jonathan Niese in the Mid/Back of Rotation category. Hall and Rodriguez both fall into the second bucket for now, though it's possible they could move up in future years.  
    • Adam Jones being protected from Orix Buffalo fans' adulation:  
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...