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Luke-OH

Ryan McKenna 2019

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I think McKenna has done enough where I’d be fine if they promoted him.    However, whether he does get promoted depends on who makes the Orioles’ roster next spring.    If Hays, Diaz and Mullins are all in Norfolk (which seems likely), the O’s may prefer to leave McKenna so that all four can play OF every day.

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I agree that a promotion to Norfolk could be justified.  I would prefer he return to Bowie to show improved results for 200 at-bats and then go to AAA.

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On 8/25/2019 at 3:33 PM, vatech1994 said:

Protecting him this offseason isn’t even a question.  Of course they will add him to the 40 man.

I still believe he will be protected, but I no longer think it is a no brainer based on the baserunning comments after Game 2.  Those comments reflect a manager who is very tired of dealing with McKenna’s issues and who felt quite comfortable being open about it IMHO.  That makes me wonder what is happening behind the scenes.

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8 minutes ago, vatech1994 said:

I still believe he will be protected, but I no longer think it is a no brainer based on the baserunning comments after Game 2.  Those comments reflect a manager who is very tired of dealing with McKenna’s issues and who felt quite comfortable being open about it IMHO.  That makes me wonder what is happening behind the scenes.

He's not in the starting line-up tonight.

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Interesting series for McKenna.    He batted .636 with a 1.460 OPS, but made critical baserunning mistakes that arguably cost the Baysox game 2 and earned him a benching in game 3.    He came back with a vengeance in game 4, going 3 for 4 with a walk.    

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Interesting series for McKenna.    He batted .636 with a 1.460 OPS, but made critical baserunning mistakes that arguably cost the Baysox game 2 and earned him a benching in game 3.    He came back with a vengeance in game 4, going 3 for 4 with a walk.    

It's hard to stay in the dugout when your post-season OPS is 1.460.  

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Just now, Ruzious said:

It's hard to stay in the dugout when your post-season OPS is 1.460.  

Yes, I meant doghouse.  Ugg.  

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McKenna might turn into something someday but I don't see protecting a guy who hit .240 in his 2nd try in AA and who most experts, including ours, projects as a 4th OF.   Teams pick Rule 5 guys for either present value or future dividends.  I just don't see anyone picking McKenna if he's left unprotected.

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21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

McKenna might turn into something someday but I don't see protecting a guy who hit .240 in his 2nd try in AA and who most experts, including ours, projects as a 4th OF.   Teams pick Rule 5 guys for either present value or future dividends.  I just don't see anyone picking McKenna if he's left unprotected.

You are underselling McKenna's projection. He projects to have a 4th outfielder floor and a starting centerfielder ceiling. He could easily be the 26th man on a roster next year as a defensive replacement and backup centerfielder, There is some real dreck being slotted into MLB lineups in centerfield. 

 

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I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

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Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

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3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

Good work, but I don't see McKenna getting taken and if does, I don't see him sticking. Saying that, I haven't looked at the 40-man close enough to see if I would protect him or not, but since I see him as more of a 4th outfielder at best, I wouldn't be too concerned about losing him. Saying that, I'm definitely protecting him over the replacement level pitchers that currently litter the 40-man roster. 

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

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11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

More day to day interactions with Luke on the site.  That's all.  Whatever.

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