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Luke-OH

Ryan McKenna 2019

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Interesting series for McKenna.    He batted .636 with a 1.460 OPS, but made critical baserunning mistakes that arguably cost the Baysox game 2 and earned him a benching in game 3.    He came back with a vengeance in game 4, going 3 for 4 with a walk.    

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Interesting series for McKenna.    He batted .636 with a 1.460 OPS, but made critical baserunning mistakes that arguably cost the Baysox game 2 and earned him a benching in game 3.    He came back with a vengeance in game 4, going 3 for 4 with a walk.    

It's hard to stay in the dugout when your post-season OPS is 1.460.  

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McKenna might turn into something someday but I don't see protecting a guy who hit .240 in his 2nd try in AA and who most experts, including ours, projects as a 4th OF.   Teams pick Rule 5 guys for either present value or future dividends.  I just don't see anyone picking McKenna if he's left unprotected.

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21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

McKenna might turn into something someday but I don't see protecting a guy who hit .240 in his 2nd try in AA and who most experts, including ours, projects as a 4th OF.   Teams pick Rule 5 guys for either present value or future dividends.  I just don't see anyone picking McKenna if he's left unprotected.

You are underselling McKenna's projection. He projects to have a 4th outfielder floor and a starting centerfielder ceiling. He could easily be the 26th man on a roster next year as a defensive replacement and backup centerfielder, There is some real dreck being slotted into MLB lineups in centerfield. 

 

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I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

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Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

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3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

Good work, but I don't see McKenna getting taken and if does, I don't see him sticking. Saying that, I haven't looked at the 40-man close enough to see if I would protect him or not, but since I see him as more of a 4th outfielder at best, I wouldn't be too concerned about losing him. Saying that, I'm definitely protecting him over the replacement level pitchers that currently litter the 40-man roster. 

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

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11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

More day to day interactions with Luke on the site.  That's all.  Whatever.

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17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

My guess is that would be a fun, but really tough task. I expect Elias to bring in a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of before. Last year it was Ruiz, Smith, Martin, Nunez and others. I know that happens every year, but I'm guessing it'll be more than usual just given where we still are in the rebuild. 

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3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My guess is that would be a fun, but really tough task. I expect Elias to bring in a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of before. Last year it was Ruiz, Smith, Martin, Nunez and others. I know that happens every year, but I'm guessing it'll be more than usual just given where we still are in the rebuild. 

Yeah, we may have to do a "vulnerable" list for the guys are whole vulnerable to being taken off. I imagine that list will be long.

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If the O's don't protect McKenna, I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up by another club. Every club can use a + Glove ++ Speed late inning outfield defensive replacement on the bench and teams will have an extra bench slot next year, so keeping Rule V picks will be less burdensome that ever before.

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1 hour ago, bluedog said:

If the O's don't protect McKenna, I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up by another club. Every club can use a + Glove ++ Speed late inning outfield defensive replacement on the bench and teams will have an extra bench slot next year, so keeping Rule V picks will be less burdensome that ever before.

Tend to agree with this. McKenna seems like a Joey Rickard type Rule V candidate. With more teams taking the Orioles-Tigers-Royal approach to gutting the payroll if you can't compete, there could certainly be a team out there willing to stash him. Not saying it's likely. But it wouldn't be surprised if it happened if he's left unprotected. 

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