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schittenden

How bad are the umpires?

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I didn't see this posted yet (and feel free to move to the MLB forum if more appropriate), but I thought this analysis of umpire errors on ball-strike calls was really fascinating.  Bottom line, they aren't great.  Even the best umpires get about 1 out of 12 calls wrong.  The worst umpires are closer to 1 out of 7.  Angel Hernandez is awful (as expected), but not as bad as you think.  Joe West is every bit as terrible as you think.

https://www.bu.edu/today/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy/

There is also a clear bias toward Strike 3 once a batter has three strikes, with error rates ranging from 1-in-5 calls to 1-in-3 calls.

Up-and-in and up-and-away are most likely to result in an erroneous call.

Young umpires tend to be better than old umpires.

A lot of interesting tidbits in the full article.

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I see a lot of inconsistency with bringing the strike zone up.  

Still see plenty of balls at the knees called strikes and they aren't calling the high strike as much as they should be. I haven't noticed as many balls off the plate being called strikes as I used to, but I have no numbers to back that up. 

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41 minutes ago, schittenden said:

Even the best umpires get about 1 out of 12 calls wrong. 

Round a little bit and you have an accuracy rate of about 92%.  For the best umps.

If automated balls and strikes are better than that (and I'm thinking we have systems that already exceed that), then I can't see too many more winning arguments against implementing them.  The plate is already a standard width; you just need a standardized, defined way to measure batter height to give every hitter the top and bottom of their zone.

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2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

o

 

On a mildly related note, I remember reading about the Cleveland Browns being the first team ever to use a radio piece in their quarterback's helmet in 1956 after Otto Graham retired.

 

The First Helmet Radio: Paul Brown and Football’s Forgotten Dynasty

(By Dombonvissuto)

https://www.si.com/2014/06/11/paul-brown-cleveland-browns-dynasty-helmet-radio

 

 

Image result for Cleveland Browns first team with a helmet radio

 

o

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Is it such a radical solution to allow every player 1 unsuccessful Trackman challenge?  Similar to Tennis and Hawkeye challenges?  Or do we just want 100% robot strike zone all the time?

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1 minute ago, Hallas said:

Is it such a radical solution to allow every player 1 unsuccessful Trackman challenge?  Similar to Tennis and Hawkeye challenges?  Or do we just want 100% robot strike zone all the time?

So one challenge that they know will be unsuccessful?  That seems like it would needless slow the game. 

Honestly that sounds like a huge time sink, who would do the reviewing, the home plate ump who is probably zoning out by the second inning?

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1 minute ago, Hallas said:

Is it such a radical solution to allow every player 1 unsuccessful Trackman challenge?  Similar to Tennis and Hawkeye challenges?  Or do we just want 100% robot strike zone all the time?

I hate challenges.  Why don't you have an ump in the booth watching the game and the tracking, and he just hits a buzzer and radios the head ump when he sees something wrong.  On balls and strikes... give the home plate ump a little key fob kind of thing tied to Trackman.  Two buzzes is a strike, one is a ball.  The ump calls it.  If the robot is clearly wrong, like calling a strike on a pitch 3' outside, the ump calls it right.

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9 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Is it such a radical solution to allow every player 1 unsuccessful Trackman challenge?  Similar to Tennis and Hawkeye challenges?  Or do we just want 100% robot strike zone all the time?

 

o

 

I suspect that that would create even more animosity and antagonism between the batter and the home-plate umpire than already exists, particularly when the batter wins a challenge.

 

o

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On 4/8/2019 at 3:08 PM, schittenden said:

I didn't see this posted yet (and feel free to move to the MLB forum if more appropriate), but I thought this analysis of umpire errors on ball-strike calls was really fascinating.  Bottom line, they aren't great.  Even the best umpires get about 1 out of 12 calls wrong.  The worst umpires are closer to 1 out of 7.  Angel Hernandez is awful (as expected), but not as bad as you think.  Joe West is every bit as terrible as you think.

https://www.bu.edu/today/2019/mlb-umpires-strike-zone-accuracy/

There is also a clear bias toward Strike 3 once a batter has three strikes, with error rates ranging from 1-in-5 calls to 1-in-3 calls.

Up-and-in and up-and-away are most likely to result in an erroneous call.

Young umpires tend to be better than old umpires.

A lot of interesting tidbits in the full article.

Umpires making mistakes is part of the game. How many times did Weaver  kick dirt on the home plate umpire? They’ve always made mistakes. We can’t take the human out of the game. 

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