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Frobby

Attendance 2019

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How many fans will show up the final home game of the season? I'm guessing 8,942. Ravens Chiefs game, two of the most exciting teams in the NFL are playing, and it's going to be hot in Baltimore. I'll be there with my Dad and brother rooting on the O's for my only Camden Yards appearance this season (and checking my phone every five minutes rooting for the Ravens).

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11 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Probably need about 44,000 for the last three games to get to 1.3 million. See from 42,000 to 45,000 or so.

I predict they make it.   Nice weather, give aways, last weekend series of the year.   

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I predict they make it.   Nice weather, give aways, last weekend series of the year.   

44,003 for the last three games for 1.3 million.Paid attendance should be close.Really nothing to be excited about but understandable. The last two years the Orioles have lost more games at home then any time ever in a 162 game season.Not sure if it is ever..Mets and Tigers both lost 107 at home consecutively . Tough to watch such bad home team baseball. Still would be the worst average hone attendance since 1978 and of course worst ever at Camden Yards.

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1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

10,148 tickets sold for Thursday.   1.3M would represent a 36% drop in only 2 years, including 17% this year alone.

Fans don’t like losing.   Who knew?

On to next year, I do not think there will be another large drop, and I think it’s even possible (though not likely) there will be some modest gains.    Reasons:

1.   I think we’ll have some interesting younger players like Hays and (eventually) Mountcastle who will get the fans interested.    

2.   I think we’ll be more competitive.    The offense and the outfield defense could be decent if we play the right guys.   The pitching could still be a horror show but it almost has to be better than this year because it really can’t get any worse.    

3.   I think the 1.3 mm fans who stayed with the team this year are very hard core and not easily peeled away.    

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19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fans don’t like losing.   Who knew?

On to next year, I do not think there will be another large drop, and I think it’s even possible (though not likely) there will be some modest gains.    Reasons:

1.   I think we’ll have some interesting younger players like Hays and (eventually) Mountcastle who will get the fans interested.    

2.   I think we’ll be more competitive.    The offense and the outfield defense could be decent if we play the right guys.   The pitching could still be a horror show but it almost has to be better than this year because it really can’t get any worse.    

3.   I think the 1.3 mm fans who stayed with the team this year are very hard core and not easily peeled away.    

Plus as I have said before you got the Yankee and Red Sox fans to  keep the attendance from going way below 1,3 million. But the Red Sox fans may disappear depending on what they do in the off season. Next year having the Cubs on a weekday series in April will hurt a bigger draw and the weekends Some of the other weekend series next year are not teams that draw. Plus one Sunday game is the MLB  Little League Classic. They will draw when the #1 catcher comes up. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Fans don’t like losing.   Who knew?

On to next year, I do not think there will be another large drop, and I think it’s even possible (though not likely) there will be some modest gains.    Reasons:

1.   I think we’ll have some interesting younger players like Hays and (eventually) Mountcastle who will get the fans interested.    

2.   I think we’ll be more competitive.    The offense and the outfield defense could be decent if we play the right guys.   The pitching could still be a horror show but it almost has to be better than this year because it really can’t get any worse.    

3.   I think the 1.3 mm fans who stayed with the team this year are very hard core and not easily peeled away.    

#3 I find disagreement with.  There weren't close to 1.3 million paying fans in the stands. People  bought season tickets and didn't attend a lot of their games.  I think season ticket sales will go down.  Reasons people buy season tickets are for things like opening day. 

Opening day didn't sell out this year.  Will be even less sold next year.

Also people buy season tickets and give them to employees and customers.  If employees and customers do not want the tickets it would be better to give tickets  away for something people actually want.   For example, Aquarium tickets would be more appreciated.

The other 2 are all conjecture.  We don't know what will happen next season. If Mancini and Villar are traded it could make the team worse.  Yes if the team is more competitive we should have more fans buying single game tickets.    But, I will say if next season is like this one and it looks like this one ticket sales will probably go down t a million. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

3.   I think the 1.3 mm fans who stayed with the team this year are very hard core and not easily peeled away.    

I think it's a little more nuanced than that.  I think that half of that total are people who go to the game because it's something to do.  Use the minor leagues as a comparison.  Columbus and Indianapolis are cities a little smaller than Baltimore. They have changed affiliations off and on over the last few decades so there's little continuity, little connection to history.  They are AAA teams, so mostly devoid of top prospects, and when they get one he's usually only there for a fraction of the season.  

Both of those teams drew the 81-game equivalent of about 700k fans.  I think about half or more of the Orioles attendance is made up of people who are mostly disconnected from the particulars of the team.  They show up because an Oriole game is a thing to do that's family friendly and you can have a beer and hang out.

I've always theorized that you could go around OPACY and ask people who Bobby Grich or Mickey Tettleton or Luis Matos is and you'd get mostly blank stares or wild guesses.  We're not that different from Red Sox fans who mostly think ancient history is when Johnny Damon was on the team.

Back to your 3rd point, they're not going to lose that 700k-1M fans.  They just show up no matter what. And on top of that you get other fans who care what the team does.

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50 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Plus as I have said before you got the Yankee and Red Sox fans to  keep the attendance from going way below 1,3 million. But the Red Sox fans may disappear depending on what they do in the off season. Next year having the Cubs on a weekday series in April will hurt a bigger draw and the weekends Some of the other weekend series next year are not teams that draw. Plus one Sunday game is the MLB  Little League Classic. They will draw when the #1 catcher comes up. 

I would be shocked if he on the big team next year, he will likely spend all of next season in the minors. If he excels there, he will likely be up sometime in 2021.

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1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

They will draw when the #1 catcher comes up. 

Is that because he won't be up until they're winning a lot more, or because of Rutschman?  I'll agree with the former, but if they're 70-77 next September and he makes his debut the spike in attendance will be a few thousand fans that night.   Unless he's been hitting .410-44-152 for the Tides...

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25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is that because he won't be up until they're winning a lot more, or because of Rutschman?  I'll agree with the former, but if they're 70-77 next September and he makes his debut the spike in attendance will be a few thousand fans that night.   Unless he's been hitting .410-44-152 for the Tides...

I don't see any chance of him being on the Orioles next year. He didn't even hit in Delmarva this year.  Best case for him is he starts the year in Frederick and at half way point gets promoted to Bowie.  

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

I don't see any chance of him being on the Orioles next year. He didn't even hit in Delmarva this year.  Best case for him is he starts the year in Frederick and at half way point gets promoted to Bowie.  

Best case is he hits .330 at Fredrick, is promoted to Bowie in May or June, continues to hit, and is in Baltimore by late in the year.

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