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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

What his O-Swing%?

You said I didn't offer any evidence.  I showed I did.  11 walks and 77 strikeouts.  How do you feel about those numbers?

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

You said I didn't offer any evidence.  I showed I did.  11 walks and 77 strikeouts.  How do you feel about those numbers?

I think that without proper context it is not sufficient to suggest he needs at least another year in AAA. 

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As someone else pointed out, 3 walks and 33 k's in June.  That's not progress.  But he put up 8 homers and an 814 OPS so let's ignore the elephant in the room.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that without proper context it is not sufficient to suggest he needs at least another year in AAA. 

How do you feel about 11 walks and 77 strikeouts.  3 walks and 33 strikeouts in June?   Red flag or a sign of future success?

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

As someone else pointed out, 3 walks and 33 k's in June.  That's not progress.  But he put up 8 homers and an 814 OPS so let's ignore the elephant in the room.

I'm not suggesting it isn't something to look at.

I'm also not suggesting that he at least another year at AAA.

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not suggesting it isn't something to look at.

I'm also not suggesting that he at least another year at AAA.

Something to look at?  You have no opinion on those numbers?  You need to do a deeper analysis before you can say those numbers are putrid and a huge red flag moving forward.

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Here is a list of the qualified major leaguers with a BB rate that is 3.4% or worse (the same as Mountcastle at AAA).

Yadier Molina  (.667 OPS)  (.281 BB/K)

Kevin Pillar  (.681 OPS)   (.222 BB/K)

Hanser Alberto!!!  (.738 OPS)  (.292  BB/K)

Tim Anderson  (.833 OPS)  (.119 BB/K)

Mountcastle has a .143 BB/K ratio

So it looks like it is def possible to be a good offensive player with a super low BB rate but it is definitely abnormal to see someone qualify for the batting title and have a BB rate so low.

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31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mountcastle, age 22.  11 walks and 77 strikeouts in 75 games.  You always point out numbers in A ball and say a hitter is not a prospect based on bad plate discipline numbers. How do you feel about 11:77 in AAA?

At the very least, he needs another year in AAA. Of course, he appears to think there's no problem as long as he's putting up "numbers".    His career numbers in the minors are more than 4 strikeouts per 1 walk.  Trumbo wasn't that bad. Adam Jones wasn't near that bad.  At age 22, Sisco had 32 walks and 96 k's in 344 AB's which was bad but he had a history of decent plate discipline.   

Mountcastle has no such history.  His 77 strikeouts are even worsened by the fact that he doesn't work the count at all.   ML pitchers will exploit that to the max.  Can he improve? Sure?  Is the current version on a path to success?  No way.

Mountcastle has hit 15 home runs in half a season of AAA at 22.  He has a high average. I think he will succeed in the Major Leagues.  Mancini wasn't all that great in AAA at 24. His walk totals while not as low as Mountcastle were low.  His Average and power were much lower.  Lets not kid ourselves Mountcastle will hit.  Tony Gwynn didn't walk much in triple A at 22 but hit for a high average and it seemed to work out for Gwynn.  

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You are comparing ML numbers against AAA numbers.  Now, find some ML players whose AAA numbers were as bad as Mountcastle's.  Curiously, every player you picked, except maybe Alberto, has significant defensive value.

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9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You are comparing ML numbers against AAA numbers.  Now, find some ML players whose AAA numbers were as bad as Mountcastle's.  Curiously, every player you picked, except maybe Alberto, has significant defensive value.

I compared Gwynn's Triple A Numbers at 22 to Mountcastle.  A Hall of Fame Player.  You are totally discounting age.  How many guys hit like Mountcastle at AAA at 22 in the International League (Not PCL) and then don't hit in the majors?  I think you are totally discounting the age factor.  

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Yea the question is to look at people at AAA at 22..........I don't know how to query that easily.

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2 minutes ago, atomic said:

I compared Gwynn's Triple A Numbers at 22 to Mountcastle.  A Hall of Fame Player.  You are totally discounting age.  How many guys hit like Mountcastle at AAA at 22 in the International League (Not PCL) and then don't hit in the majors?  I think you are totally discounting the age factor.  

OMG!   Tony Gwynn and Ryan Mountcastle in the same sentence!  You sure you don't mean Chris's Gwynn or Tony Gwynn Jr.?   Tony Gwynn walked just 18 times in 366 AB's.  Yep, that is Ryan Mountcastle territory.  You know what else he did.  He also struck out 18 times.  So the 1:1 ratio is slightly better than Mountcastle's 1:7 ratio.

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