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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mountcastle, age 22.  11 walks and 77 strikeouts in 75 games.  You always point out numbers in A ball and say a hitter is not a prospect based on bad plate discipline numbers. How do you feel about 11:77 in AAA?

At the very least, he needs another year in AAA. Of course, he appears to think there's no problem as long as he's putting up "numbers".    His career numbers in the minors are more than 4 strikeouts per 1 walk.  Trumbo wasn't that bad. Adam Jones wasn't near that bad.  At age 22, Sisco had 32 walks and 96 k's in 344 AB's which was bad but he had a history of decent plate discipline.   

Mountcastle has no such history.  His 77 strikeouts are even worsened by the fact that he doesn't work the count at all.   ML pitchers will exploit that to the max.  Can he improve? Sure?  Is the current version on a path to success?  No way.

When I point out that a guy in A ball "is not a prospect based off plate discipline" there's a lot more to it than just the numbers. One of the things I've always said is walks are not as important if a player can hit for a higher average, especially with power. 

Mountcastle does both. Now, I would like Mountcastle to walk more, but do I think he'll become a poor man's Trumbo because of his low walk rate, absolutely not.

If Mountcastle was hitting .260 with those walk rates I'd have more concerns, but he's hitting over .300 with a .500 SLG this year as a 22-year old in AAA.

If Mountcastle went to college, this would be his first full minor league season. Are you telling me you would not be excited over a kid drafted last year who was in AAA OPSing .836 in a a notorious pitcher's park in AAA?

I think you and some others are too focused on the one aspect of his game that he doesn't do well. If he K rate was ridiculously high I'd have more concerns as well, but in this day and age, his K rate isn't a concern as long as power continues to develop.

Regardless, Mountcastle is still the best upper level hitting prospect this organization has and he's a legitimate top 100 prospect in baseball.

 

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5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Having him repeat AAA just to walk more would be pretty dumb.

Yeah, very dumb to keep young guys in the minors to work on things that will keep them from succeeding in the majors.  Of course, if there's no hope of that, by all means, let's unleash him on the AL.

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, very dumb to keep young guys in the minors to work on things that will keep them from succeeding in the majors.  Of course, if there's no hope of that, by all means, let's unleash him on the AL.

I love the assumption folks have that players can't work on things in the majors, as if their entirety of time in the majors won't consist of them trying to improve their game.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love the assumption folks have that players can't work on things in the majors, as if their entirety of time in the majors won't consist of them trying to improve their game.

He could improve in the majors.  My opinion is that he's not ready for the majors.  IMO, his weaknesses will be totally exploited by ML pitching.  Heck, it appears the book may be out in AAA.  Let's see how he does in the 2nd half.

 

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23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

OMG!   Tony Gwynn and Ryan Mountcastle in the same sentence!  You sure you don't mean Chris's Gwynn or Tony Gwynn Jr.?   Tony Gwynn walked just 18 times in 366 AB's.  Yep, that is Ryan Mountcastle territory.  You know what else he did.  He also struck out 18 times.  So the 1:1 ratio is slightly better than Mountcastle's 1:7 ratio.

But Gwynn hit 5 home runs.  I am sure if Mountcastle tried to hit less home runs he would have less strike outs.  Mountcastle is a power hiter who hits for a very high average. I am not sure what your issue is but he isn't going to be George Brett but could be a guy who hits .300 and knocks in 40 home runs a season.  I will take that. 

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Let's put things in perspective.  RM's .836 OPS is good for 35th best in the IL this year.  He's just behind teammate Jace Peterson.

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21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I love the assumption folks have that players can't work on things in the majors, as if their entirety of time in the majors won't consist of them trying to improve their game.

And the number one thing to look at in these circumstances is age.  If he is a star at a level and he is very young for that level that is what you want.  Sure it would be great if he walked more but I don't know too many perfect hitters.  Maybe Barry Bonds.  But even Mike Trout struck out 184 times in his third big league season.  

Machado's first 3 seasons in the majors he never had an OPS over .755.  But guess what that was his age 19 to 21 seasons. 

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6 minutes ago, atomic said:

But Gwynn hit 5 home runs.  I am sure if Mountcastle tried to hit less home runs he would have less strike outs.  Mountcastle is a power hiter who hits for a very high average. I am not sure what your issue is but he isn't going to be George Brett but could be a guy who hits .300 and knocks in 40 home runs a season.  I will take that.

I'll have whatever you're having.

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9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's put things in perspective.  RM's .836 OPS is good for 35th best in the IL this year.  He's just behind teammate Jace Peterson.

Jace Peterson is 29.  You can't really be this obtuse. 

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Let's put things in perspective.  RM's .836 OPS is good for 35th best in the IL this year.  He's just behind teammate Jace Peterson.

You really are discounting the fact that he's 22-years old. That is a very significant point for liking his numbers in AAA. Would you really be upset if he turns into a Trey Mancini like hitter at the major league level?

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Just now, atomic said:

Jace Peterson is 29.  You can't really be this obtuse. 

That's pretty funny coming from you.  Just pointed out a fact.  I didn't draw any conclusions based on that fact.  Haha.

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7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That's pretty funny coming from you.  Just pointed out a fact.  I didn't draw any conclusions based on that fact.  Haha.

In Bowie Manny Machado had a lower OPS than his teammate Caleb Joseph. Let's put Manny in perspective.  

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You really are discounting the fact that he's 22-years old. That is a very significant point for liking his numbers in AAA. Would you really be upset if he turns into a Trey Mancini like hitter at the major league level?

No, I would be elated.  I don't think he will be anywhere near as good a hitter as Mancini.

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No, I would be elated.  I don't think he will be anywhere near as good a hitter as Mancini.

Fair enough. Time will tell who is correct.

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10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You really are discounting the fact that he's 22-years old. That is a very significant point for liking his numbers in AAA. Would you really be upset if he turns into a Trey Mancini like hitter at the major league level?

I would be upset if he ended up hitting like Trey Mancini.  He is 2 years younger than Trey was at AAA and he is hitting better.  With much more power and higher average.

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