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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Fair enough. Time will tell who is correct.

Fair enough. I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't look forward to being reminded of it.

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12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's put things in perspective.  RM's .836 OPS is good for 35th best in the IL this year.  He's just behind teammate Jace Peterson.

From what I can see here his OPS is 56th best in the IL min 82 ABs (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=d8c9afa1). He is one of three 22 year olds on that list, there are no younger players.

Age	#	Avg OPS
22	3	0.922
23	5	0.900
24	13	0.937
25	6	0.977
26	6	0.949
27	5	0.966
28	3	0.903
29	4	0.899
30	3	0.853
31	3	0.944
32	3	0.873
33	2	0.865

 

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

I would be upset if he ended up hitting like Trey Mancini.  He is 2 years younger than Trey was at AAA and he is hitting better.  With much more power and higher average.

So based on that Mountcastle should annually OPS over 1.000 in the majors.  Makes sense.

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10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Lol.  All I did was point out Mountcastle ranking 35th in OPS, just behind Jace.  Was that incorrect?

It is irrelevant.  First thing I do when looking at a minor league teams stats is sort by age.  The number one thing to look at is are they young for the league or old for the league. Then look at their stats. Guys like Machado, Markakis, Adam Jones are producing in the majors by age 22. 

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So based on that Mountcastle should annually OPS over 1.000 in the majors.  Makes sense.

Ahem.

"All he did was point out that Ryan is younger than Trey was at AAA and is hitting better.   Is that incorrect?"

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6 minutes ago, atomic said:

I would be upset if he ended up hitting like Trey Mancini.  He is 2 years younger than Trey was at AAA and he is hitting better.  With much more power and higher average.

I personally think Mancini is his high-floor as a hitter, but I wouldn't be too upset if he ends up a .300, 30 guy which is what Mancini is on pace for. 

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9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So based on that Mountcastle should annually OPS over 1.000 in the majors.  Makes sense.

 A 22 year old isn't fully developed physically.  He will gain a lot of strength and his power numbers should go up.  Are you new to baseball?

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

It is irrelevant.  First thing I do when looking at a minor league teams stats is sort by age.  The number one thing to look at is are they young for the league or old for the league. Then look at their stats. Guys like Machado, Markakis, Adam Jones are producing in the majors by age 22. 

Sort by age. Ignore plate discipline. Got it.  Thanks.  

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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fair enough. I hope I'm wrong.  I just don't look forward to being reminded of it.

Haha, you gotta stick with your opinion and reap the rewards or taking the ragging that will go on if you miss. I'm sure I will take my share if Sisco keeps hitting. His turn around is quite remarkable.

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1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Ahem.

"All he did was point out that Ryan is younger than Trey was at AAA and is hitting better.   Is that incorrect?"

No.

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Just now, Tony-OH said:

Haha, you gotta stick with your opinion and reap the rewards or taking the ragging that will go on if you miss. I'm sure I will take my share if Sisco keeps hitting. His turn around is quite remarkable.

Yep, I've noticed a 5000% increase in the use of the term meh the past few weeks.

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8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I personally think Mancini is his high-floor as a hitter, but I wouldn't be too upset if he ends up a .300, 30 guy which is what Mancini is on pace for. 

But this is Mancini's first season with these numbers and he is 27. I would be happy with consistent numbers like that from Mountcastle.   But certainly not Mancini's 2018 season. 

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2 minutes ago, atomic said:

 A 22 year old isn't fully developed physically.  He will gain a lot of strength and his power numbers should go up.  Are you new to baseball?

Yes. I just started learning the game.  I appreciate the help.  Thanks.

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10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Mountcastle, age 22.  11 walks and 77 strikeouts in 75 games.  You always point out numbers in A ball and say a hitter is not a prospect based on bad plate discipline numbers. How do you feel about 11:77 in AAA?

At the very least, he needs another year in AAA. Of course, he appears to think there's no problem as long as he's putting up "numbers".    His career numbers in the minors are more than 4 strikeouts per 1 walk.  Trumbo wasn't that bad. Adam Jones wasn't near that bad.  At age 22, Sisco had 32 walks and 96 k's in 344 AB's which was bad but he had a history of decent plate discipline.   

Mountcastle has no such history.  His 77 strikeouts are even worsened by the fact that he doesn't work the count at all.   ML pitchers will exploit that to the max.  Can he improve? Sure?  Is the current version on a path to success?  No way.

I have mixed feelings about this.   First of all, there’s still half a season to play, so I’d rather wait until this year is over before proclaiming that he needs another year in AAA.     Second, Mountcastle is producing decently despite his obvious flaws, and I’m not sure if major league pitchers will be able to exploit him to the extent you think, though I do think that it’s possible you’re right.   

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There aren't too many other current major leaguers with his batting profile.

Tim Anderson (CWS) .317 .342 .491 (.832) 7 BB's and 59 K's in 241 at bats.  Very Mountcastle-ish. 

Yoan Moncada - also on the CWS has 21 BB's and 88 K's in 286 at bats.  .304 .357 .528 .885.  That's probably a best case scenario for RM.  

If you look at David Dahl's (COL) away splits, he's putting up a .768 OPS with a terrible 7:1 K to BB ratio.  

So it's possible to have some success with a terrible walk rate, but the upside is going to be limited unless he can start walking a little more and/or striking out a little less. 

 

 

 

 

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