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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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19 hours ago, ChuckS said:

There aren't too many other current major leaguers with his batting profile.

Tim Anderson (CWS) .317 .342 .491 (.832) 7 BB's and 59 K's in 241 at bats.  Very Mountcastle-ish. 

Yoan Moncada - also on the CWS has 21 BB's and 88 K's in 286 at bats.  .304 .357 .528 .885.  That's probably a best case scenario for RM.  

If you look at David Dahl's (COL) away splits, he's putting up a .768 OPS with a terrible 7:1 K to BB ratio.  

So it's possible to have some success with a terrible walk rate, but the upside is going to be limited unless he can start walking a little more and/or striking out a little less. 

 

 

 

 

This is my worry with Mountcastle.  There are a very few players who can be productive at the major league level striking out seven times for each walk.  Many more who can't.  Mancini had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors.  Mountcastle is 4:1 or worse, and it's not improving.  

It is a positive that he's fairly young. He's 22.  That's the most important thing in a prospect. I'm reasonably confident he'll make some significant strides by the time Mancini hit AAA (24).  

But... lack of plate discipline can derail players.  Cory Snyder had Mountcastle's plate discipline and power (actually better plate discipline in the minors), was in the majors at 23, was a better fielder with an epic arm, and ended up with a fairly disappointing career.  When you have 17 walks you have to hit .290 or your OBP is going to be a drag.  Jonathan Schoop is a another example - when he hits .230 he's an out-making machine.

I hope Mountcastle grows some discipline, or has a little Vlad in him.

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Looking forward to when the people who've been anxiously awaiting Mountcastle start to sour when they realize he's just as flawed as the current flawed player's they're fed up with.  

Sounds like he does damage when he makes contact but the lack of discipline is really worrisome.  Not to mention the defense. 

But...PROSPECT STATUSSSSSSSS

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Looking forward to when the people who've been anxiously awaiting Mountcastle start to sour when they realize he's just as flawed as the current flawed player's they're fed up with.  

Sounds like he does damage when he makes contact but the lack of discipline is really worrisome.  Not to mention the defense. 

But...PROSPECT STATUSSSSSSSS

Funny how you keep saying that.  I don't hear anyone else saying that. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny how you keep saying that.  I don't hear anyone else saying that. 

 

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

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13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

Mountcastle was rated 51 best prospect by baseball prospectus before the season.  He is also rated in top 100 by Baseball America and Baseball Pipline. It isn't like we are just reaching for anyone.  He is 22 and hit at every level.   If he walked 50 times this year and his other stats were the same he would be a top 20 prospect.  

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8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah.  But he doesn't, so he's not.

MLB Pipeline new list has him at #55 overall and #1 first baseman prospect in all of baseball.  

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Just now, atomic said:

MLB Pipeline new list has him at #55 overall and #1 first baseman prospect in all of baseball.  

Must be a dry spell for first base prospects.  Why don't you astonish me with some other information about his awesome defense.

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15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

Can't stand gin.

I'm sorry I thought you were beating your old drum about draft status.

Yes I will agree that the shiny new car is loved in these parts.

In my case I like inexpensive low mileage cars. 

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can't stand gin.

I'm sorry I thought you were beating your old drum about draft status.

Yes I will agree that the shiny new car is loved in these parts.

In my case I like inexpensive low mileage cars. 

Draft status affords higher drafted players more opportunities, c'mon.  I'll beat that drum all day.  

 

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I wouldn't be that surprised to see him go on a tear for a week or so when he's called up, but what will happen when pitchers realize they don't have to throw strikes to get him out? It's possible he could have a special ability to make contact when he swings like Vlad did, but even Guerrero had a decent K/BB ratio for his career and even had more walks than K's in several seasons. Lack of discipline/OBP plus below average defense sounds like the kind of thing we're trying to get away from.

I'm not closing the door on him, but am also not optimistic. He could have that special bat, but I highly doubt it's .300/30HR special. Maybe 200+ strikeout special, though.

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58 minutes ago, atomic said:

Mountcastle was rated 51 best prospect by baseball prospectus before the season.  He is also rated in top 100 by Baseball America and Baseball Pipline. It isn't like we are just reaching for anyone.  He is 22 and hit at every level.   If he walked 50 times this year and his other stats were the same he would be a top 20 prospect.  

It very, very painful for me to say this, but bah gawd ... I agree with atomic. 

It always amazes me how this board eagerly crawls minor league box scores in search for players who may some day produce at the major league level. We talk upside and potential and what tweaks certain players need to unlock performance.... then we have a 22-year-old mashing in AAA who has caught the attention of national evaluators and we are even more eager to tear him down. 

How about instead of spending large portions of our online Orioles fandom thinking of snarky new ways to trash the potential of one of the 100 best prospects in the entire league, we see what the kid does when he gets here. But I guess that would mean less page views on OH and we need to keep those up. 

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

Of course the opposite exists and prospects are discounted because of a scouting report someone read when they were drafted.

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8 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

It very, very painful for me to say this, but bah gawd ... I agree with atomic. 

It always amazes me how this board eagerly crawls minor league box scores in search for players who may some day produce at the major league level. We talk upside and potential and what tweaks certain players need to unlock performance.... then we have a 22-year-old mashing in AAA who has caught the attention of national evaluators and we are even more eager to tear him down. 

How about instead of spending large portions of our online Orioles fandom thinking of snarky new ways to trash the potential of one of the 100 best prospects in the entire league, we see what the kid does when he gets here. But I guess that would mean less page views on OH and we need to keep those up. 

Who is tearing him down?  Having reservations about his upside is not tearing him down. 

I think he's going to be a solid .800ish OPS player in the Adam Jones/Jonathan Schoop mold.  I don't see him being better than that without improvements to his walk rate. 

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Schoop is a pretty good comparison for him, offensively. Schoops low OBP high SLG profile makes him around a league average hitter overall. Most of his value comes from his defense, if you look at his page.

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