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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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Question: Do we know how often he swings at bad pitches? Could the lack of walks be due to him making contact earlier in the count or striking out on pitches in the zone?  I've never seen an analysis of why he has so few walks, just an assumption that he chases.

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28 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Schoop is a pretty good comparison for him, offensively. Schoops low OBP high SLG profile makes him around a league average hitter overall. Most of his value comes from his defense, if you look at his page.

A .268 and a .291 average in the minors are the same thing to you I guess.  Now we are getting statements that are bordering on ridiculousness. 

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1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

It very, very painful for me to say this, but bah gawd ... I agree with atomic. 

It always amazes me how this board eagerly crawls minor league box scores in search for players who may some day produce at the major league level. We talk upside and potential and what tweaks certain players need to unlock performance.... then we have a 22-year-old mashing in AAA who has caught the attention of national evaluators and we are even more eager to tear him down. 

How about instead of spending large portions of our online Orioles fandom thinking of snarky new ways to trash the potential of one of the 100 best prospects in the entire league, we see what the kid does when he gets here. But I guess that would mean less page views on OH and we need to keep those up. 

You should have read their posts about Cody Sedlock after he pitched 27 innings at Aberdeen at age 21 to a 3 run ERA.  They were already penciling him in as a #1 starter. 

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35 minutes ago, atomic said:

A .268 and a .291 average in the minors are the same thing to you I guess.  Now we are getting statements that are bordering on ridiculousness. 

Pretty different minor league careers. Schoop was in Baltimore at age 21/22 because of his defense (and the playoff push). Mountcastle gets to mash juiced up baseballs in Norfolk. 

Of course in 2015, I also claimed that Mancini would never hit in the big leagues so what do I know? 

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This idea that Mountcastle is "mashing" in AAA is laughable.  He was 35th in OPS last time I checked.  No comparison to another player is going to determine his future.  School actually had similar BB:K ratio in AAA but he played at 21.  He also had 1:2 ratio overall as opposed to 1:4 (1:7 this year) for RM.  School has a .740 career OPS but also added some defensive value which RM is unlikely to. How about Adam Jones who played AAA at 21/22 and put up a 967 OPS good for 4th in the PCL.  His ratio was 1:3 that year.  His career OPS is .780 but he also played a key defensive position.  Schoop and Jones plate discipline numbers didn't noticeably improve in the majors.  Just because Mountcastle is hitting .300 in AAA this year is no reason to suspect he'll hit .300 in the majors.  On the contrary, I think you'll see his BA take a significant nosedive and his OPS and OBP along with it.   His home run and RBI numbers are nice but if you look a little deeper it doesn't bode well.

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5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

This idea that Mountcastle is "mashing" in AAA is laughable.  He was 35th in OPS last time I checked.  No comparison to another player is going to determine his future.  School actually had similar BB:K ratio in AAA but he played at 21.  He also had 1:2 ratio overall as opposed to 1:4 (1:7 this year) for RM.  School has a .740 career OPS but also added some defensive value which RM is unlikely to. How about Adam Jones who played AAA at 21/22 and put up a 967 OPS good for 4th in the PCL.  His ratio was 1:3 that year.  His career OPS is .780 but he also played a key defensive position.  Schoop and Jones plate discipline numbers didn't noticeably improve in the majors.  Just because Mountcastle is hitting .300 in AAA this year is no reason to suspect he'll hit .300 in the majors.  On the contrary, I think you'll see his BA take a significant nosedive and his OPS and OBP along with it.   His home run and RBI numbers are nice but if you look a little deeper it doesn't bode well.

Mountcastle plays in a very pitcher friendly park.   

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Also interesting to note that Mountcastle only has 1 walk against left-handed pitching in 88 at bats but has a .364 Batting average and .996 OPS against them.

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16 minutes ago, atomic said:

Mountcastle plays in a very pitcher friendly park.   

Not so much this year.   He has a .920 OPS at home, .741 on the road.   I can’t find team home/road splits, but Stewart was 1.089/.956, Sisco was 1.165/.657 and Santander was .712/.740.

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Mountcastle's future may be in left field.  Here is what Gary Kendall had to say about Mountcastle in the OF:

Quote

“There are nights that it’s a learning experience, but also nights that he looks like the best player on the field. He’s playing primarily first base and a few games in the outfield and at third. He’s taken a little bit to left field. He hasn’t been challenged yet in the gaps into left-center field. But he does have an assist from the left field corner, a strong accurate throw. His arm plays a little better out there. This is something the organization wants to take a look at and he’s on board with it. He’s worked hard playing a lot of balls off the bat out there.

Its early in his development in left but it could be his best position and his path to the majors since Diaz is taking his time to progress through the minors.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/07/gary-kendall-talks-triple-a-prospects-plus-other-notes.html

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I keep looking for Mountcastle in left. It makes so much sense for him to play there next year in Baltimore. I don't see why he isn't there every day in Norfolk.

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On 7/5/2019 at 6:07 AM, RZNJ said:

This idea that Mountcastle is "mashing" in AAA is laughable.  He was 35th in OPS last time I checked.  No comparison to another player is going to determine his future.  School actually had similar BB:K ratio in AAA but he played at 21.  He also had 1:2 ratio overall as opposed to 1:4 (1:7 this year) for RM.  School has a .740 career OPS but also added some defensive value which RM is unlikely to. How about Adam Jones who played AAA at 21/22 and put up a 967 OPS good for 4th in the PCL.  His ratio was 1:3 that year.  His career OPS is .780 but he also played a key defensive position.  Schoop and Jones plate discipline numbers didn't noticeably improve in the majors.  Just because Mountcastle is hitting .300 in AAA this year is no reason to suspect he'll hit .300 in the majors.  On the contrary, I think you'll see his BA take a significant nosedive and his OPS and OBP along with it.   His home run and RBI numbers are nice but if you look a little deeper it doesn't bode well.

You make some solid points. I agree his walk rate is concerning, while his strikeouts are not. A few thoughts:

The biggest difference there is Mountcastle uses the entire field much more. Schoop and Jones are extreme pull hitters, for the most part. Both were at their best when they used RF more, though. Buck mentioned it many many times over the years. Ryan’s ability to use the whole field may help him avoid some of the same pitfalls of those two. 

Norfolk is an notorious extreme pitchers park. I would love to see what Ryan’s day to day trackman data is, his exit velocities and what his barrel % is. I would like to know what the % of balls he swings at, and how many swing and misses he has. I would like to know how many pitches he sees in each at bat. How is his pitch recognition? Is he able to make solid adjustments in his approach? I would want to know all of that before I read too much into what the numbers mean for a 21 year old in AAA. Overall, I find it quite encouraging when I look at his numbers. And I think he’ll continue to fill out some and add more power. 

And perhaps he ends up in LF, so there can be some defensive value. He is a pretty solid athlete. 

My thought, hope, is he will become more and more selective. I wonder if he is a victim of his aggressiveness and barrel ability. For instance, does he swing at and hit pitches that he cannot do damage with early in counts. He certainly has not shown any signs of improving his walk rate, but it can certainly be done. We’ll see. 

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