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Ryan Mountcastle 2019

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the real question is how much will Mountcastle’s lack of plate discipline limit his upside.   There’s little doubt in my mind he can hit well enough to play in the big leagues.   But will his bat look like career Adam Jones (.277/.318/.434) or like 2019 Trey Mancini (.277/.346/.535)?    When you have a Mancini-like set of defensive skills, you hope it’s the latter offensively.    

I think Mountcastle will have a better bat than either of them at his peak. 

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45 minutes ago, weams said:

I think Mountcastle will have a better bat than either of them at his peak. 

That would be great.   But he’ll need to prove it.  

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the real question is how much will Mountcastle’s lack of plate discipline limit his upside.   There’s little doubt in my mind he can hit well enough to play in the big leagues.   But will his bat look like career Adam Jones (.277/.318/.434) or like 2019 Trey Mancini (.277/.346/.535)?    When you have a Mancini-like set of defensive skills, you hope it’s the latter offensively.    

I think he will be closer to Mancini numbers. I also think he will be fine at 1B and will not be a liability there and may end up a decent LF, but will need time for that. 

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5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think he will be closer to Mancini numbers. I also think he will be fine at 1B and will not be a liability there and may end up a decent LF, but will need time for that. 

Having another Mancini like bat in the lineup isn’t a bad thing to have. 

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8 minutes ago, higgybaby said:

Having another Mancini like bat in the lineup isn’t a bad thing to have. 

I’d be very happy with that.    

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm hoping for 17.1 rWAR over his years of team control.

That’s pretty precise — is there a player you’re thinking of who was worth that?

I’d certainly be very happy with that.   

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Just now, Frobby said:

That’s pretty precise — is there a player you’re thinking of who was worth that?

I’d certainly be very happy with that.   

Cruz was worth 17.0 rWAR with Seattle.

They got the pick they used on Mountcastle when Cruz left.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

 

 

Gabriel Guerrero: .722 OPS in 230 AAA games at ages 22-25 (.586 at age 22).

Nick Williams: .800 OPS in 244 AAA games at ages 22-25.  (.714 at age 22.)

Zach Walters: .784 OPS in 427 AAA games at ages 22-27.  (.545 at age 22.)

Moises Sierra: .763 OPS in 459 AAA games at ages 23-29.

Granting that AAA numbers are way up this year (+.080 average OPS compared to 2018), I really don’t see a comparison here.   Perhaps if Jon reads this he can elaborate.    He mentions Mountcastle is “one of the younger 1B in the International League,” but I think he’s underselling that.   Mountcastle is 4.9 years younger than league average and among the top 100 hitters in the league he’s 5th youngest.

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23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Gabriel Guerrero: .722 OPS in 230 AAA games at ages 22-25 (.586 at age 22).

Nick Williams: .800 OPS in 244 AAA games at ages 22-25.  (.714 at age 22.)

Zach Walters: .784 OPS in 427 AAA games at ages 22-27.  (.545 at age 22.)

Moises Sierra: .763 OPS in 459 AAA games at ages 23-29.

Granting that AAA numbers are way up this year (+.080 average OPS compared to 2018), I really don’t see a comparison here.   Perhaps if Jon reads this he can elaborate.    He mentions Mountcastle is “one of the younger 1B in the International League,” but I think he’s underselling that.   Mountcastle is 4.9 years younger than league average and among the top 100 hitters in the league he’s 5th youngest.

To me it looks like he has decided the lack of walks is a fatal flaw and is looking for evidence to support his opinion.

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me it looks like he has decided the lack of walks is a fatal flaw and is looking for evidence to support his opinion.

I don’t think he’s opining that Mountcastle will have the same fate as these players; I see his remarks as more of a word of caution about getting overly enthusiastic.   And some of those guys walked a lot more than Mountcastle, even if they didn’t walk a ton.   

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I'm not John, but my guess is he's pointing out other players who were 10th of 19 with wRC. Just a guess though. If so, he's essentially saying something along the lines that Mountcastle's numbers look better than they are because of the elevated offensive environment.

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All of it. Some people are still trying to wrap their heads around the recent history of the game and Mountcastle's walk numbers and are trying to figure out some comparisons which point to a similar player who became a successful or very successful ML hitter.  They seem hard to find.  Some, like Luke and Tony are saying that he is such a good hitter and doesn't really chase out of the zone so they aren't as concerned with the low walk totals.  There is no doubt that offense is up in AAA this year.   Some see Mountcastle as this year's version of Mancini.  I think we would all be happy with that.   At least we can look forward to more comedy from duo collectively known as CornDog.

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