Jump to content
Greg Pappas

FanGraph's Updated Top Prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft

Recommended Posts

Here's the link to the FanGraphs Top Prospects page> https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1&type=0&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0

As well, Kiley McDaniel posted this on April 9th

Quote

Some preferences in the early picks are becoming clearer. It still seems like Adley Rutschman at one (Orioles) and Andrew Vaughn at two (Royals) are the two easier ones to project with what we know at this point (the full draft order and slots can be found here). Rutschman’s lead at the top spot is still significant, so it would take a major injury or an uglier-than-expected medical to make Vaughn a real option at the first pick for Baltimore. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for sharing that. It lead me to ponder, what would the Orioles do if Rutschman, God forbid, was severely injured or otherwise fell from consideration for the #1 pick. Would they take Vaughn? I just can’t see it, but what say you?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks for sharing that. It lead me to ponder, what would the Orioles do if Rutschman, God forbid, was severely injured or otherwise fell from consideration for the #1 pick. Would they take Vaughn? I just can’t see it, but what say you?

I'd take Vaughn over Witt.  Witt's bust potential worries me.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Thanks for sharing that. It lead me to ponder, what would the Orioles do if Rutschman, God forbid, was severely injured or otherwise fell from consideration for the #1 pick. Would they take Vaughn? I just can’t see it, but what say you?

I take Seth Johnson, sign him for 4M and then weaponize the bonus pool.

That’s an armchair GM move, in reality I probably do something more conservative like signing whoever of the Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, and Bishop has the lowest price tag. That first move gets you fired if it doesn’t work. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/13/2019 at 1:04 AM, Luke-OH said:

I take Seth Johnson, sign him for 4M and then weaponize the bonus pool.

That’s an armchair GM move, in reality I probably do something more conservative like signing whoever of the Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, and Bishop has the lowest price tag. That first move gets you fired if it doesn’t work. 

You had me going there for a second...

For me to take a 1B at 1:1, the bat has to be a no doubt HOF bat and not a liability in the field.  And he has to have the intangibles. Personally, I am a big fan of Abrams. There is so much there to work with. He needs work and time, but the kid is so gifted athletically. His risk profile is less than Witt, but Witt has more power and a lot more hype. 

But Rutschman should be just fine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, TheDeau52 said:

Asking as a guy who doesn’t watch a ton of college ball - what’s Rutschman’s ceiling, in your opinion?

The best catcher in the majors. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The best catcher in the majors. 

Metaphorically I see a scale with Wieters's and Posey's realities at either end.  A bellwether of whether we are real 2022 playoff contenders or pesky up-and-comers I can imagine will be has Rutschman unseated Gary Sanchez as the perennial starting catcher in the All-Star game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Metaphorically I see a scale with Wieters's and Posey's realities at either end.  A bellwether of whether we are real 2022 playoff contenders or pesky up-and-comers I can imagine will be has Rutschman unseated Gary Sanchez as the perennial starting catcher in the All-Star game.

If you say Posey was an 80 during his years of team control and Wieters was a 55, which I think is pretty close to correct. and Rutschman is a 60 FV, then

Posey would be about a 97% outcome.

Wieters would be a 33% outcome. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

If you say Posey was an 80 during his years of team control and Wieters was a 55, which I think is pretty close to correct. and Rutschman is a 60 FV, then

Posey would be about a 97% outcome.

Wieters would be a 33% outcome. 

Would be nice if a guy like Wynns stuck around and was a good backup so that way Rutschman can not be run into the ground like Wieters was. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/13/2019 at 1:04 AM, Luke-OH said:

I take Seth Johnson, sign him for 4M and then weaponize the bonus pool.

That’s an armchair GM move, in reality I probably do something more conservative like signing whoever of the Witt, Abrams, Vaughn, and Bishop has the lowest price tag. That first move gets you fired if it doesn’t work. 

I'm loving that Seth Johnson remains ranked in the 30's if we assume Luke is right and consensus is wrong. 

Luke: Do you think it's a real possibility that Johnson isn't seen as a first rounder come draft day and is available with the O's second pick? Of course, it just takes one scouting director to agree with you for him to get popped earlier. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

I'm loving that Seth Johnson remains ranked in the 30's if we assume Luke is right and consensus is wrong. 

Luke: Do you think it's a real possibility that Johnson isn't seen as a first rounder come draft day and is available with the O's second pick? Of course, it just takes one scouting director to agree with you for him to get popped earlier. 

I think it's possible. Teams fear risk too much sometimes and the lack of a track record with Johnson will undoubtedly scare teams off. Especially for a 1st round pick, those picks get shackled to the scouting director and GM, who then get judged by the results of that pick. That makes folks risk adverse.

But for me, it's easy to not think about those things and just see a guy who only started pitching last spring, who didn't throw anything but a fastball until last fall and now has a slider and curveball that wouldn't look out of place in the majors less than a year later. The changeup flashes. The delivery is as good as you'll find in the college ranks. He's been up to 98 and has touched at least 95-96 every start. Sure, he doesn't know how to pitch yet, his command is below average, but it's so advanced considering the number of reps he's had. 

The stats aren't dominant, but compare him to another small school DI shortstop who converted to pitching in earnest his JR year.

Player A: 4.48 ERA, 11.26 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 1.75 BB/9, 6.12 K/9

Player B: 3.46 ERA, 6.00 H/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.23 BB/9, 9.92 K/9

A is Jacob DeGrom, B is Johnson

DeGrom didn't go until the 9th round, but he didn't throw as harder than low 90s at the time and didn't have a quality secondary pitch at the time. 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/17/2019 at 9:45 AM, MDtransplant757 said:

Would be nice if a guy like Wynns stuck around and was a good backup so that way Rutschman can not be run into the ground like Wieters was. 

Well Buck is gone so there’s hope. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Correct. He and clement had cup of coffees.
    • To state the obvious, some drafts are better than others, both regarding the amount of talent available and the choices made by the teams.      To illustrate, I had a brief look at the top 30 picks in every draft from 2000-2014.    I stopped after 2014 because many of the players picked in 2015 or later are still in the minors or have only played 1-2 years in the majors, so the data on those years is woefully incomplete.    Even in this synopsis, the data on years from 2010 on are still very much in progress.    But, I think you can determine which drafts were strong and which were weak, in terms of available talent and the wisdom of the choices. 2000 Players over 10 WAR: 4 Players over 0.0 WAR: 6 Players who made the majors: 16 Top 5: Utley 64.4 (15), A. Gonzalez 43.6 (1), Wainwright 40.5 (29), Baldelli 10.2 (6), S. Burnett 5.9 (19)   2001 Players over 10 WAR: 5 Players over 0.0 WAR: 15 Players who made the majors: 19 Top 5: Mauer 55.3 (1), Teixeira 50.6 (5), Prior 16.6 (2), Floyd 15.7 (4), Lowry 10.0 (30)   2002 Players over 10 WAR: 11 Players over 0.0 WAR: 18 Players who made the majors: 24 Top 5: Greinke 71.0 (6), Hamels 59.5 (17), Cain 29.1 (25), Span  28.1 (20), Fielder 23.8 (7)   2003 Players over 10 WAR: 7 Players over 0.0 WAR: 18 Players who made the majors: 22 Top 5: Markakis 34.2 (7), Hill 24.4 (13), Danks 20.2 (9), Billingsley 17.2 (24), Maholm 11.9 (8)   2004 Players over 10 WAR: 6 Players over 0.0 WAR: 22 Players who made the majors: 27 Top 5: Verlander 71.6 (2), Weaver 34.6 (12), Walker 20.0 (11), S. Drew 15.9 (15), Butler 11.9 (14)   2005 Players over 10 WAR: 12 Players over 0.0 WAR: 20 Players who made the majors: 26 Top 5: Braun 46.8 (5), McCutchen 44.8 (11), Tulowitzki 44.5 (7), Zimmerman 38.5 (4), Gordon 35.0 (2)   2006 Players over 10 WAR: 7 Players over 0.0 WAR: 17 Players who made the majors: 23 Top 5: Kershaw 67.9 (7), Scherzer 60.1 (11), Longoria 56.0 (3), Lincecum 19.6 (10), Kennedy 17.6 (21)   2007 Players over 10 WAR: 6 Players over 0.0 WAR: 16 Players who made the majors: 22 Top 5: Price 39.4 (1), Heyward 36.9 (14), Bumbarner 36.8 (10), Porcello 19.8 (27), Wieters 18.2 (5)   2008 Players over 10 WAR: 7 Players over 0.0 WAR: 20 Players who made the majors: 26 Top 5: Posey 41.8 (5), G. Cole 23.8 (28 – not signed), Hosmer 16.7 (3), Lawrie 15.6 (16), J. Castro 12.1 (10)   2009: Players over 10 WAR: 6 Players over 0.0 WAR: 17 Players who made the majors: 22 Top 5: Trout 72.8 (25), Strasburg 33.5 (1), Pollock 19.2 (17), Minor 17.7 (7), Leake 16.9 (8)   2010 Players over 10 WAR:  7 Players over 0.0 WAR: 14 Players who made the majors: 21 Top 5: Sale 45.3 (10), Machado 36.7 (3), Harper 31.8 (1), Yelich 31.8 (23), Grandal 17.2 (12)   2011 Players over 10 WAR: 9 Players over 0.0 WAR: 23 Players who made the majors: 27 Top 5: Rendon 29.1 (6), Lindor 27.6 (8), Springer 25.4 (11), Cole 23.9 (1), S. Gray 18.1 (18)   2012 Players over 10 WAR: 5 Players over 0.0 WAR: 15 Players who made the majors: 21 Top 5: Correa 24.5 (1), C. Seager 15.7 (18), Stroman 14.7 (22), A. Russell 10.7 (11), Gausman 10.0 (4)   2013 Players over 10 WAR: 2 Players over 0.0 WAR: 15 Players who made the majors: 22 Top 5: Bryant 23.9 (2), J. Gray 10.1 (3), T. Anderson 8.7 (17), M. Gonzales 6.2 (19), Renfroe 6.1 (13)   2014 Players over 10 WAR: 5 Players over 0.0 WAR: 15 Players who made the majors: 20 Top 5: Chapman 19.8 (25), Nola 19.4 (7), T. Turner 14.1 (13), Conforto 12.4 (10), Freeland 10.6 (8)   The 2002, 2005 and 2011 drafts were pretty amazing, both in terms of the number of players chosen in the top 30 who reached the majors and the ones who were/are pretty good.    If I get a chance, I'll add to this post some of the better players who were chosen outside the top 30.      Note that only 20 of 75 players chosen in the top 5 in this 15-year period have actually been among the top 5 of the first 30 chosen players: 7 no. 1's, 4 no. 2's, 3 no. 3's, 3 no. 4's and 3 no. 5's.      We'll see how the class of 2020 pans out.    
    • Here is a list of the top 5 selections for college bats for the last 17 years.  Everyone made it to the majors with 13 having good to great careers.   The O’s should draft a college bat either Torkelson or Martin. 2000 none 2001 Teixeira 2002 none 2003 Weeks 2004 none 2005 Gordon, Clement, Zimmerman, Braun 2006. Longoria 2007 Wieters 2008 Alvarez, Posey 2009 Ackley, Sanchez 2010 none 2011 none 2012 Zunino 2013 Bryant 2014 schwarber 2015 Swanson, Bregman 2016 Senzel, Ray 2017 none    
    • My bad, it was Jeff clement.   Both he and Sanchez did have a cup of coffee in the bigs.
    • I do not want any of those widespread issues brought up by you or discussed in this thread.    Please, no response. 
    • I’m sure they were blinded by all the shinny new objects that Hall was buying them.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...