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Keegan Akin 2019

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1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

112.1 isn't a ton of innings. Wouldn't shock me if they call him up to get more innings if they don't plan on sending him to the AFL. Although when you look at pitch counts his workload is probably the equivalent of 130-140 innings, so I dunno

 

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Good point. It's actually ~20 fewer innings than last year. He should be able to handle more if they want.

For what it’s worth, Akin threw 2,259 pitches last year, 2,023 this year.    So he could certainly make 2-3 more starts in the majors, or go to the AFL and make a few of the 3-inning starts they tend to throw out there, without increasing his workload from last year.   

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19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

For what it’s worth, Akin threw 2,259 pitches last year, 2,023 this year.    So he could certainly make 2-3 more starts in the majors, or go to the AFL and make a few of the 3-inning starts they tend to throw out there, without increasing his workload from last year.   

Considering starting pitchers in the Majors throw 2,800+ pitches per season, a slightly increased workload would probably be for the best, to build up to that level.

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39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

For what it’s worth, Akin threw 2,259 pitches last year, 2,023 this year.    So he could certainly make 2-3 more starts in the majors, or go to the AFL and make a few of the 3-inning starts they tend to throw out there, without increasing his workload from last year.   

Agreed, let's see what he can do.  Not like we've got a bunch of Cy Young contenders blocking his way in the rotation....call him up and give him 2-3 starts.

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2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Considering starting pitchers in the Majors throw 2,800+ pitches per season, a slightly increased workload would probably be for the best, to build up to that level.

Major league pitchers pitch in September - which probably makes up at least 2/3s of the difference in the pitches between Akin's current workload and that of a major league SP.  I think Akin's workload last year and for most of this year is roughly (within about 10% and 200 pitches give or take) in line with a MLSP from April to August.

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22 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Major league pitchers pitch in September - which probably makes up at least 2/3s of the difference in the pitches between Akin's current workload and that of a major league SP.  I think Akin's workload last year and for most of this year is roughly (within about 10% and 200 pitches give or take) in line with a MLSP from April to August.

Yeah, that is why I think if he is in consideration to make the rotation next season (which he is), he should throw 20-ish innings in September to start to bridge that gap. He isn't going to be a #1 or #2 starter, and he is already 24, it isn't worth playing service time games to control a pitcher who will at most be a mid-rotation starter for his age 31 season, when he will already be on the decline.

If he ends up getting a multi-year deal after his age 30 season, dayenu.

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I posted this in the Norfolk thread after Murph posted the HR numbers, but it really belongs here.  A little to my surprise, Akin ended up 6th in ERA among International League qualifiers, and the last couple years Mr. 6th place had an ERA around 3.00 or a hair under.  My brain hadn't gone so far as to regard a 4.75 in 2019 AAA as actually kind of good.

I'll be disappointed in he doesn't get a chance to get his feet wet.  Unlike Mountcastle, it isn't a scenario where the player is good enough young enough that retaining club control 7 years down the line is a substantial consideration.

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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

I posted this in the Norfolk thread after Murph posted the HR numbers, but it really belongs here.  A little to my surprise, Akin ended up 6th in ERA among International League qualifiers, and the last couple years Mr. 6th place had an ERA around 3.00 or a hair under.  My brain hadn't gone so far as to regard a 4.75 in 2019 AAA as actually kind of good.

I'll be disappointed in he doesn't get a chance to get his feet wet.  Unlike Mountcastle, it isn't a scenario where the player is good enough young enough that retaining club control 7 years down the line is a substantial consideration.

I agree that service time shouldn’t be a consideration with Akin.    But on the other hand, I’m not sure he’s ready.   I answered your post in the Norfolk thread and won’t repeat myself here, especially since I’ve made many of my points earlier in this thread.    

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree that service time shouldn’t be a consideration with Akin.    But on the other hand, I’m not sure he’s ready.   I answered your post in the Norfolk thread and won’t repeat myself here, especially since I’ve made many of my points earlier in this thread.    

Thanks for the league ERA context - that wasn't quite as fingertips for me as I was reacting to the HR rate news, and looking through my orange colored classes.

Leaving aside the rate stats, to an extent GS is simply why I'm pulling for the callup.  I think we're hoping he can manage 30ish MLB GS next year - like for most rookie pitchers, the game will be can he survive at any level of effectiveness, or will he be shelled out of the rotation?  His health track record has been great - he's done the 25 starts thing already, but this year with substantially fewer innings thanks to those AAA blowups.

Aside from being incrementally perfectionist and a learning opportunity, a few games would also give him a shot at going into the offseason on a higher note.  I know Buck loved talking about September (along with March) as the "fooled ya" months, but in this instance I'd be delighted to see a couple good performances even versus checked out veterans.

On a higher level perspective, digesting just how deeply all AAA played like Coors Field this season has me wondering more if clubs might get a little more aggressive with AA-to-MLB pitcher promotions if they don't want Quad-A sluggers to beat up medium prospects.  We'll have a lot of guys in that boat next year, though given our position, all of them can expect practice with the MLB ball in AAA.

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16 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

On a higher level perspective, digesting just how deeply all AAA played like Coors Field this season has me wondering ...

Between the ML HR rates and the AAA stuff, I expect a step back to normalcy next year in both. I expect changes to the ball to help the pitchers relative to this year. I'm not expert on this stuff, but the stark changes this year probably didn't go over very well across baseball.

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7 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Between the ML HR rates and the AAA stuff, I expect a step back to normalcy next year in both. I expect changes to the ball to help the pitchers relative to this year. I'm not expert on this stuff, but the stark changes this year probably didn't go over very well across baseball.

The hitters liked it.   The pitchers didn’t.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The hitters liked it.   The pitchers didn’t.   

And we know what the "chicks" (oops - is this now gender derogation?  If so mods please delete and reprimand)  dig.  😇

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Akin was a consideration, but the Orioles want him to cut down on his walks - the opposite of Hays and Mountcastle.

“It’s tough,” Elias said. “These guys, they’re big prospects. If need be, could they come to the big leagues? Yeah. They’re not fully finished with their development, really, for the same reasons, and it’s walk rate in a lot of cases.

“Keegan walked, I believe, somewhere between 4.5 or five batters per nine (innings) this year, I don’t remember the exact number, but his strikeout numbers are great. He had a nice full season, got 93 or 94 innings under his belt and he will be in a very strong position to compete for a rotation spot (next) year, and I fully expect him to be in the major leagues with us next year.

“Again, thrilled to have him, but part of the rebuilding process that we’re going through in its early stages is we also try to bring in talent from the major league level outside, the guys that we have here, waiver claims, and give them some rope and try to find some diamonds in the rough that way. These guys are coming and they’re a big part of our future.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/09/more-on-hays-promotion-and-other-roster-decisions.html

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