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Obando

Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

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18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd hope the voters might notice that 3 WAR in 67 games works out to MVP-level production in a full season.  

Comparing production across different positions and contexts is pretty much WAR's reason to exist.  Systematically putting different contributions in context and assigning value is WAR, and it usually does it better than eyeballing and guessing whether 140 innings of a 3.50 in OPACY is better than a 1.000 OPS in Houston in 67 games.

All true, that's the goal, but flaws are becoming more apparent over time. WAR isn't going to consistently differentiate meaningfully between a 3.0 and a 3.2 player, IMO, because of the flawed defensive inputs.

Either way, it's immaterial here, where one player is essentially "worth" double the WAR as the other player over equal time.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

All true, that's the goal, but flaws are becoming more apparent over time. WAR isn't going to consistently differentiate meaningfully between a 3.0 and a 3.2 player, IMO, because of the flawed defensive inputs.

Either way, it's immaterial here, where one player is essentially "worth" double the WAR as the other player over equal time.

WAR's value isn't because it can finely differentiate tenths of a win.  It can't.  We don't have that level of information at the required accuracy. 

Its value is summing up a variety of contributions in a various contexts into a single number, vastly simplifying countless kinds of comparisons and analyses.  If two players are separated by 0.2 wins your best way to interpret that is they're almost indistinguishable in overall value.

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38 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

WAR's value isn't because it can finely differentiate tenths of a win.  It can't.  We don't have that level of information at the required accuracy. 

Its value is summing up a variety of contributions in a various contexts into a single number, vastly simplifying countless kinds of comparisons and analyses.  If two players are separated by 0.2 wins your best way to interpret that is they're almost indistinguishable in overall value.

I agree that's what it is sold as, but again, I don't agree that it's true. Defensive data is highly questioned by position. The value of OF data vs. a SS's data vs. a catcher's data is huge. Similarly, there's huge differences in FIP, xFIP, etc., that are attempting in different ways to approximate a pitcher's value (performance). Again, they vary widely.

WAR is old. It's better than what existed before it, and probably better in the aggregate in general, but at the player level I do not believe it when it says that an individual SS, P, OF, C and DH who are all worth 3.0 WAR are indistinguishable in overall value. That determination takes a closer look at the inputs to make.

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o

 

In the first 6 innings of Means' last outing, he retired 18 out of the 19 batters that he faced ........ in tonight's outing, he retired 15 out of the first 17 batters that he faced in the first 5 innings.

In his last 5 outings combined, he has a 2.53 ERA and an 0.781 WHIP with 3 Walks and 25 Strikeouts over 32.00 Innings Pitched.

 

 

19 OUTS: 6 Strikeouts, 4 Groundouts, 3 Popouts, 3 Flyouts, 2 Lineouts, 1 Foulout

 

JOHN ALAN MEANS )))))) (vs. DODGERS, 9/11)

IP:l.6.33

H:llll 4 )l (1 Home Run, 1 Double,Singles)   

R:lllll 2

BB:ll

SO:ll6

Pitches: )l 87(53 )Strikes, )34 )Balls) 

2019 ERA: ))3.47  ))  137.33 IP  (53 ER) 

2019 WHIP: ))1.114  ))  137.33 IP  (153 H/BB)

2019 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: )).229 ) (120 for 523) 

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*************************

17 ll(11 llStrikes, llllllBalls)

51 lll(31 llStrikes, lllllBalls)

16 lll(81 lllStrikes, lllllBalls)

10 lll(71 lllStrikes, lllllBalls)

11 lll(71 lllStrikes, lllllBalls)

23 lll(14 lllStrikes, lllllBalls)

51 llll(31 lllStrikes, lllllBalls) ) *

 

* )) Means recorded 1 out before departing in the 7th inning.

 

o

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Shame he didn’t get credited with the win.    Yeah, I know, meaningless stat, for precisely this reason.    Still would’ve been nice.   At least the team got one.   

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18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Shame he didn’t get credited with the win.    Yeah, I know, meaningless stat, for precisely this reason.    Still would’ve been nice.   At least the team got one.   

Yes, but even his family name expresses disdain for counting stats.

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35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Shame he didn’t get credited with the win.    Yeah, I know, meaningless stat, for precisely this reason.    Still would’ve been nice.   At least the team got one.   

I see what you did there, but am not sure you really means it.

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On 4/18/2019 at 11:42 PM, Obando said:

Both were never highly rated prospects in their respective systems, but worked their way up the ladder, made it to the majors, and in the case of Kuechel, has had a ton of success despite lacking dominant stuff. Both are lefties that have good control/command and great changeups, and so far from what I’ve seen from Means, he’s not scared out on the mound.  He has some moxie and poise, just like Kuechel.  I love how he stood up to Yandy Diaz after he threw up and in on him, Yandy shot him a dirty look, and Means said “What are you looking at?” to him with a serious face.  Then Means proceeded to strike him out on the next pitch.  It was a thing of beauty!

Kuechel ended up becoming a major part of the Astros’ success during their rebuild, and the Orioles are in the early stages of their rebuild right now.  Maybe I’m just excited after watching Means close out this game against the Rays, but in general, I’ve been very impressed with him so far this season.

If the Orioles have any luck at all, Means will become that unexpected top of the rotation type of starter that the Astros ended up getting with Kuechel unexpectedly.  I’m not suggesting Means will win 20 games and become a Cy Young winner, but I don’t see any reason why he can’t become a staple of the rotation for many years to come based on what he’s shown me so far.

You know, the thread title and OP don’t seem nearly as improbable as they did on April 18.

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8 minutes ago, Snutchy said:

John Means is good. Hig change and FB have the same release point. He is a solid #3 who will be our OD starter next year. 

So long as he doesn’t pitch in any MASN commercials over the winter.   

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3 hours ago, Snutchy said:

John Means is good. Hig change and FB have the same release point. He is a solid #3 who will be our OD starter next year. 

I enjoy the way Means pitches too, but what if Cobb has an outstanding spring training? Does he win OD rights as the senior, most highest-paid pitcher with a longer record of success (keeping in mind also that he's been OD starter before).

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

So long as he doesn’t pitch in any MASN commercials over the winter.   

But if he doesn't appear in the commercial, doesn't that signal that he's not in the team's future and is about to be traded?  It's a vexing problem, hurt if he does, off the team if he doesn't.

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o

 

In his last 7 outings combined, Means has a 3.02 ERA and an 0.985 WHIP with 6 Walks and 32 Strikeouts over 44.67 Innings Pitched.

 

 

21 OUTS: 7 Groundouts (Including 2 Double Plays), 4 Strikeouts, 3 Foulouts, 3 Flyouts, 2 Lineouts

 

JOHN ALAN MEANS )))))) (vs. MARINERS, 9/22)

IP:l.7

H:llll 7 )l (1 Triple, 3 Double,Singles)   

R:lllll 1

BB:ll

SO:ll4

Pitches: )l 104(63 )Strikes, )41 )Balls) 

2019 ERA: ))3.54  ))  150.00 IP  (59 ER) 

2019 WHIP: ))1.127  ))  150.00 IP  (169 H/BB)

2019 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: )).233 ) (133 for 570) 

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*************************

25 l(14 l.Strikes, ll11 llllBalls)

17 ll(13 llStrikes, lll41 lllBalls)

11 lll(81 llStrikes, llll31 lllBalls)

81 lll(31 llStrikes, lll51 lllBalls)

12 lll(91 llStrikes, lll31 lllBalls)

13 lll(61 llStrikes, lll71 lllBalls)

18 llll(10 llStrikes, lll81 lllBalls)

 

o

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o

 

In his final 8 outings of the 2019 season, Means had a 3.26 ERA and an 0.966 WHIP with 8 Walks and 37 Strikeouts over 49.67 Innings Pitched.

 

 

15 OUTS: ) 5 Strikeouts, 4 Flyouts, 3 Groundouts, 2 Lineouts, 1 Popout

 

JOHN ALAN MEANS )))))) (vs. RED SOX, 9/28)

IP:l.5

H:lll. 5 )l (1 Home Run, 1 Double,Singles)   

R:lllll 3

BB:l.

SO:ll5

Pitches: )l 96(60 )Strikes, )36 )Balls) 

2019 ERA: ))3.60  ))  155.00 IP  (62 ER) 

2019 WHIP: ))1.135  ))  155.00 IP  (176 H/BB)

2019 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: )).234 ) (138 for 590) 

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*************************

23 lll(16 llStrikes, llll71 lllBalls)

13 lll(91 llStrikes, ll.41 lllBalls)

26 lll(16 llStrikes, ll10 llllBalls)

17 lll(91 llStrikes, lll81 lllBalls)

17 llll(10 llStrikes, lll71 lllBalls)

 

o

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